Adrian Hickford

Barriers to passenger rail use: a review of the evidence

Research has shown that even when rail travel is the most cost-effective mode of transport for a particular journey, many travellers will still choose other modes. This indicates the existence of non-financial barriers to rail use, and this paper reviews the evidence on the importance of such barriers, focusing particularly on the UK but also considering research from other countries. A total of 37 distinct barriers were identified, and these can be divided into “hard”, “soft” and “complementary” factors. Travellers are unlikely to consider these barriers individually, viewing them instead as a package, which can make it difficult to identify which barriers are most significant. In many cases, all barriers which exist for a particular traveller will need to be addressed before mode shift occurs. After considering the relative importance of the different barriers, the paper concludes by making some suggestions as to the most effective ways in which these barriers can be overcome and mode shift to rail achieved. This has key implications for transport policy, as it can inform the targeting of the limited funds available to influence travel behaviour and increase the sustainability of travel patterns.

Following the cognitive work analysis train of thought: exploring the constraints of modal shift to rail transport

Environmental concerns show that transport is responsible for almost a quarter of all greenhouse gas emissions, and it is also the fastest growing sector. Modal shift towards public transport could help slow down, or even reverse, this trend. There appear to be a number of constraints that are preventing this from happening. This paper explores the constraints to modal shift to rail transport from the perspective of cognitive work analysis, specifically the abstraction hierarchy, the contextual activity template and social organisational and cooperation analyses. Whilst these analyses may not present any new barriers, they do show how the constraints are interlinked in an explicit manner. These interrelations are important for two reasons. First, in consideration of constraint removal, one must anticipate the likely effects on the remainder of the system. Second, by linking functions and situations, new concepts of travel may be identified and explored. Practitioner Summary: The purpose of this study was to use a semi-structured approach to identifying constraints to modal shift from a variety of perspectives. It is argued that cognitive work analysis offers a new way of thinking about the modal shift problem and helps to generate new insights into potential solutions.

Assessing the long-term performance of cross-sectoral strategies for national infrastructure

National infrastructure systems (energy, transport, digital communications, water, and waste) provide essential services to society. Although for the most part these systems developed in a piecemeal way, they are now an integrated and highly interdependent “system of systems.” However, understanding the long-term performance trajectory of national infrastructure has proved to be very difficult because of the complexity of these systems (in physical and institutional terms) and because there is little tradition of thinking cross-sectorally about infrastructure system performance. Here, a methodology is proposed for analyzing national multisectoral infrastructure systems performance in the context of uncertain futures, incorporating interdependencies in demand across sectors. Three contrasting strategies are considered for infrastructure provision (capacity intensive, capacity constrained, and decentralized) and multiattribute performance metrics are analyzed in the context of low, medium, and high demographic and economic growth scenarios. The approach is illustrated using Great Britain and provides the basis for the development and testing of long-term strategies for national infrastructure provision. It is especially applicable to mature industrial economics with a large stock of existing infrastructure and challenges of future infrastructure provision.

The Future of National Infrastructure: A System-of-Systems Approach

A system-of-systems approach In Part I of this volume, we make the case for taking a systems approach for planning national infrastructure. Analysis of infrastructure systems has conventionally dealt with each infrastructure sector – energy, transport, water, waste, digital communications and others – in isolation. Each of these sectors has their own planning approaches and specific ways of making the business case for investment. The development of investment plans has been based on assumptions that have been developed for each sector: of demand from households and industries, and of the hazards to which the systems may be exposed. Even when cross-sectoral interdependencies are significant, for example, in thermoelectric energy generators’ demand for cooling water, these have been dealt with via assumptions based on past experience. These approaches have enabled the development of the elaborate systems that we now witness, which sustain modern societies and economies. The analysis described in this book is motivated by a hypothesis that the current approaches to planning, design and management of infrastructure systems that have served modern societies well in the past are not fit for purpose as we move into the future. We are already observing increasing convergence of infrastructure services, enabled by technology – information and communications technologies (ICT) in particular. Though it may be convenient to assume so, the demands for infrastructure services are not independent for each infrastructure sector. Ultimately they derive from people and businesses who are demanding multiple infrastructure services in ways that are correlated in space and time and across sectors. By considering infrastructure services in combination rather than in isolation, there are opportunities both to access synergies and to manage the risks of interdependence. In Part II of this volume, we have considered each infrastructure sector separately, recognising their distinctive characteristics. Energy, transport, water, waste and digital communications are distinctly different systems, making use of specialised technologies that need to be understood if they are to be managed effectively in the future. These chapters have provided an overview of how these systems function and have each used new national infrastructure system models to analyse the prospects for the future under changing patterns of demand. We have explored the range of technological options that might be adopted in the foreseeable future and analysed contrasting strategies for infrastructure provision in these systems.

A Quantified System-of-Systems Modeling Framework for Robust National Infrastructure Planning

National infrastructure (NI) systems (i.e., energy, transport, water, waste, and information and communications technology) provide essential services to the economy and contribute to human well-being. These systems have evolved over centuries, being planned and implemented piecewise, and are mostly managed in isolation from one another. Here, we argue that the growing interconnection between these systems and the convergent challenges ahead (i.e., demographic, technological, and climate change) call for an integrated “system-of-systems” approach to managing NI. Toward that end, we propose a modeling framework for the long-term (to 2100) simulation of NI system performance in a highly uncertain future. The approach is based on the assessment of the performance of infrastructure services in a wide range of possible future conditions. This robust optimization is used to identify cross-sectoral strategies that ensure satisfactory infrastructure performance. We demonstrate the framework using Great Britains NI as an example.

Potential for Local Bring Sites to Reduce Householder Recycling Mileage

Using a significant database of origin postcodes, a study was designed to estimate the current annual mileage associated with visitor trips to household waste recycling centers (HWRCs)—known as manned recycling drop-off centers in the United States—and to identify how this mileage could be reduced if a series of “bring sites” (unmanned recycling drop-off centers) in the community were enhanced to take green garden waste. The total annual distance driven by approximately 4,677,000 visitors to the 26 HWRCs in Hampshire, United Kingdom, is estimated to be 40 million kilometers (assuming that 60% of visitors made dedicated trips), costing approximately £14 million (£1 =

Resilience engineering: theory and practice in interdependent infrastructure systems

1.896 in April 2005 U.S. dollars) in private transport and emitting approximately 1,873 tonnes of CO2 (as carbon) into the atmosphere. Providing a network of 104 bring sites capable of accepting green waste, in addition to the existing facilities provided by the 26 HWRCs, could save approximately 8.5 million kilometers (21%) of vehicle travel per annum (£3 million in visitor transport costs and approximately 369 tonnes of CO2 as carbon). Such a scheme would require a fleet of approximately 78 refuse collection vehicles at an annual cost to the scheme provider of slightly more than £1.5 million. If HWRCs become a major channel for the return and reprocessing of waste electrical and electronic equipment and some newly classified hazardous waste items, space at existing sites could become an issue. More local consolidation of certain waste categories (e.g., green waste) would enable HWRCs to focus their activities better.

Use of mapping with routing and scheduling to gauge the merits of local recycling opportunities

The economy and well-being of modern societies relies on complex and interdependent infrastructure systems to enable delivery of utilities and movement of goods, people and services. This complexity has resulted in an increased potential for cascading failures, whereby small scale initial failures in one system can result in events of catastrophic proportions across the wider network. Resilience and the emerging concept of resilience engineering within infrastructure are among the main concerns of those managing such complex systems. However, the disparate nature of resilience engineering development in various academic and industrial regimes has resulted in a diversity of definitions and characterisations. These are discussed in this paper, as are the commonalities between sectors and between different engineering disciplines. The paper also highlights the various methodologies used as part of resilience engineering implementation and monitoring, current practices including existing approaches and metrics, and an insight into the opportunities and potential barriers associated with these methodologies and practices. This research was undertaken for the Resilience Shift initiative to shift the approach to resilience in practice for critical infrastructure sectors. The programme aims to help practitioners involved in critical infrastructure to make decisions differently, contributing to a safer and better world.

Systems-of-systems analysis of national infrastructure

Abstract Please click here to download the map associated with this article. Using a significant database of user origin postcodes, this paper reports on a study attempting to estimate the annual mileage associated with visitor trips to Household Waste Recycling Centres (HWRCs), and identifies how this could be reduced if a series of bring-sites in the community were enhanced to take green waste, the optimal locations of which were determined using calculations derived from mapping and routing software. The 4,677,000 annual visitors to the 26 HWRCs in Hampshire travelled around 40 million km and emitted approximately 6,840 tonnes of CO2. A network of 104 bring-sites serviced by 78 refuse collection vehicles able to take green waste, operating additionally to the facilities at the 26 HWRCs, could save around 8.5 million km (21%) of travel per annum (equivalent to 1350 tonnes of CO2). The availability of accurate, digital mapping products, coupled to software enabling the routing and scheduling of vehicle fleets to be optimised, means that spatial transport problems can be better addressed and understood, and an assessment made of the impact of an alternative operating method.