Martino Tran

The UK transport carbon model: An integrated life cycle approach to explore low carbon futures

Current debate focuses on the need for the transport sector to contribute to more ambitious carbon emission reduction targets. In the UK, various macro-economic and energy system wide, top-down models are used to explore the potential for energy demand and carbon emissions reduction in the transport sector. These models can lack the bottom-up, sectoral detail needed to simulate the effects of integrated demand and supply-side policy strategies to reduce emissions. Bridging the gap between short-term forecasting and long-term scenario “models”, this paper introduces a newly developed strategic transport, energy, emissions and environmental impacts model, the UK Transport Carbon Model (UKTCM). The UKTCM covers the range of transport–energy–environment issues from socio-economic and policy influences on energy demand reduction through to life cycle carbon emissions and external costs. The model is demonstrated in this paper by presenting the results of three single policies and one policy package scenario. Limitations of the model are also discussed. Developed under the auspices of the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) the UKTCM can be used to develop transport policy scenarios that explore the full range of technological, fiscal, regulatory and behavioural change policy interventions to meet UK climate change and energy security goals.

The Future of National Infrastructure: A System-of-Systems Approach

A system-of-systems approach In Part I of this volume, we make the case for taking a systems approach for planning national infrastructure. Analysis of infrastructure systems has conventionally dealt with each infrastructure sector – energy, transport, water, waste, digital communications and others – in isolation. Each of these sectors has their own planning approaches and specific ways of making the business case for investment. The development of investment plans has been based on assumptions that have been developed for each sector: of demand from households and industries, and of the hazards to which the systems may be exposed. Even when cross-sectoral interdependencies are significant, for example, in thermoelectric energy generators’ demand for cooling water, these have been dealt with via assumptions based on past experience. These approaches have enabled the development of the elaborate systems that we now witness, which sustain modern societies and economies. The analysis described in this book is motivated by a hypothesis that the current approaches to planning, design and management of infrastructure systems that have served modern societies well in the past are not fit for purpose as we move into the future. We are already observing increasing convergence of infrastructure services, enabled by technology – information and communications technologies (ICT) in particular. Though it may be convenient to assume so, the demands for infrastructure services are not independent for each infrastructure sector. Ultimately they derive from people and businesses who are demanding multiple infrastructure services in ways that are correlated in space and time and across sectors. By considering infrastructure services in combination rather than in isolation, there are opportunities both to access synergies and to manage the risks of interdependence. In Part II of this volume, we have considered each infrastructure sector separately, recognising their distinctive characteristics. Energy, transport, water, waste and digital communications are distinctly different systems, making use of specialised technologies that need to be understood if they are to be managed effectively in the future. These chapters have provided an overview of how these systems function and have each used new national infrastructure system models to analyse the prospects for the future under changing patterns of demand. We have explored the range of technological options that might be adopted in the foreseeable future and analysed contrasting strategies for infrastructure provision in these systems.

Modeling sustainability transitions on complex networks

There has been renewed interest in sociotechnical systems in the context of transitioning to a more sustainable society. While gains have been made in the qualitative understanding of sustainable transitions and sociotechnical systems, these approaches have not been well-operationalized. Given the importance of meeting future energy and environmental policy targets, there is need to develop predictive techniques and more robust methods to quantify and analyze sociotechnical systems undergoing rapid change and uncertainty due to sustainability pressures. Sustainability transitions depend on large-scale diffusion of technological and behavioral innovations on physical and virtual networked systems. Transitions can therefore be viewed as a subclass of diffusion phenomenon and subject to a range of mathematical and computational methods. We review, categorize, and critically assess methodological and theoretical approaches that integrate different aspects of sustainability, innovation, and complexity. We argue that these approaches should be adapted to improve our understanding of the behavior and dynamics of a broad range of sociotechnical systems to meet sustainability objectives. We therefore also make the conceptual link between complexity and sustainability as complimentary fields of research to inform policy and decision making to achieve more sustainable outcomes.

A Quantified System-of-Systems Modeling Framework for Robust National Infrastructure Planning

National infrastructure (NI) systems (i.e., energy, transport, water, waste, and information and communications technology) provide essential services to the economy and contribute to human well-being. These systems have evolved over centuries, being planned and implemented piecewise, and are mostly managed in isolation from one another. Here, we argue that the growing interconnection between these systems and the convergent challenges ahead (i.e., demographic, technological, and climate change) call for an integrated “system-of-systems” approach to managing NI. Toward that end, we propose a modeling framework for the long-term (to 2100) simulation of NI system performance in a highly uncertain future. The approach is based on the assessment of the performance of infrastructure services in a wide range of possible future conditions. This robust optimization is used to identify cross-sectoral strategies that ensure satisfactory infrastructure performance. We demonstrate the framework using Great Britains NI as an example.

A National Model for Strategic Planning of Infrastructure Systems

Governments worldwide are paying increasing attention to the role of infrastructure systems in promoting economic growth and environmental sustainability. However, infrastructure planning and provision tend to be addressed in sector-specific silos which overlook the interdependencies between sectors and focuses upon the provision of projects rather than the performance of systems. In this paper, the authors report on the development of the National Infrastructure System Model (NISMOD) family of models and, in particular, the NISMOD-LP model, which is a national model of the long-term performance of infrastructure systems. NISMOD-LP is driven by high-resolution demographic projects and regional multi-sectoral economic scenarios. These provide the basis for scenarios of future demand for infrastructure services. Separate modules simulate the future capacity and performance of energy, transport, water, waste water and solid waste sectors. These different perspectives are integrated through a common architecture for sampling uncertainties, construction of cross-sectoral policy responses and visualisation of future infrastructure performance.