Agneta Forslund

Brakes and Levers to Reduce the Dependence on Imports in the Middle East-North Africa Region

The two reference scenarios and the results analysed previously rely on mere extensions of past trends and do not take into account possible breaks or ruptures other than those of accentuated climate change. Naturally, then, they are ‘scenarios of inaction’ which typically illustrate what might happen in the Middle East-North Africa region if ‘nothing is done’. We should first note that many of our hypotheses could be challenged by more marked changes, upwards or downwards, of certain contextual elements. Thus our demographic hypotheses, based on the UN’s median projection, do not take into account their inherent high levels of uncertainty. For this world region, the UN’s high and low projections reveal a potential variability of about +/−15% around the median projection. Similarly, changes in diets could be more marked. The Middle East has been falling behind in dietary terms over the past few decades and it could catch up. Or there could be an accentuation of Western characteristics in diets due to eating behaviour among the fringes of the region’s youngest population. In light of these further changes in various components of the agricultural and food system of the region, we must also consider the levers that regional governments could use to try to reduce the extreme dependence on agricultural imports towards which most countries in the Middle East-North Africa region are moving.

Determinants of the Growing Food Dependence (1961–2011)

Taking into account the evolution of the various components of the food and agricultural system in the Middle East-North Africa region since early 1960, we will seek to chart the trajectory of the increasing dependence on agricultural imports and to understand the current situation in the region and its sub-regions. To do this, we will focus successively on developments from 1961 to 2011, of the components of both food demand (volume and characteristics of the diet) and regional agricultural supply, before examining the supply chains the region has used to meet its food needs.

By 2050, a Possible Strengthening of the Regional Dependence on Agricultural Imports

As we highlighted in the previous chapter, the large increase in agricultural imports in the Middle East-North Africa region between 1961 and 2011 is the result of a combination of several factors. A population explosion has combined with dietary changes and has led to a strong growth in demand for food and feed. Growth in regional agricultural production, although significant, could not meet this demand, in particular because of insufficient improvements in yields, and the limited availability of cultivable land and access to water for irrigation. The extension of these past trends for each component of the regional agricultural and food system, which we will now examine in terms of the effects on the balance between food needs and agricultural resources in 2050, is likely to result in a strengthening of the dependence on imports.

Combining life cycle assessment and economic modelling to assess environmental impacts of agricultural policies: the case of the French ruminant sector

PurposeNumerous policy instruments are applied to agricultural production in the European Union (EU27). Implementing them may significantly influence environmental impacts of agricultural production. A consequential life cycle assessment (CLCA) approach was used to investigate potential environmental impacts of two EU27 policy instruments: dairy quota removal and implementation of a grass premium in the EU27.MethodsMATSIM-LUCA, a partial equilibrium model of global agricultural markets, was used to assess market effects of policy instrument changes and to identify the processes affected. Land use change and intensification of crop production were also considered. Outputs of the model were used to feed the CLCA.Results and discussionQuota removal led to a predicted increase in production of cow milk, dairy cull cows and beef cows in the EU27, while avoided beef cow production was located outside the EU27. Per functional unit, the additional milk production in France had lower environmental impacts than average French milk before quota removal, mostly due to avoided beef cow production in the USA. After implementation of the grass premium, cattle diets in the EU27 were predicted to contain less concentrates and more grass. Increased demand for grass led to grassland expansion at the expense of cropland, and finally to an increased area needed to produce similar quantities of ruminant products. Intensification of crop production in the EU27 occurred at the same time, however, thus reducing competition for land among different agricultural land uses but increasing environmental impacts of crop production when expressed per hectare. Environmental impacts of the additional hectares used to produce ruminant products were negative for most impact categories.ConclusionsThis study provides an initial attempt to assess environmental impacts of policy instrument changes in the ruminant sector through CLCA by combining economic modelling and LCA. Using an economic model allows the identification of the main effects of policy instrument changes in complex interconnected markets, such as agricultural ones. Nonetheless, inconsistencies between the economic and LCA frameworks were identified that need to be improved to make the method more operational.