Bertrand Schmitt

Spatial Econometric Models for Simultaneous Systems: Application to Rural Community Growth in France

In this article, comparisons are made of several spatial econometric approaches to estimation of multiequation models of small region development applied to rural community growth. Spatial extensions of the Carlino and Mills’s 1987 and Boarnet’s 1994 models are estimated to analyze the spread of population and employment into 3,500 rural communes in six French regions. Results are compared for the Henry, Barkley, and Bao’s 1997 extension of the Boarnet model, the Carlino-Mills and Boarnet models, and three spatial autoregressive models suggested by Rey and Boarnet in 1998. Tests for spread and backwash effects in the spatial autoregressive model, and the Carlino-Mills and Boarnet models, with spatial autoregressive terms added, indicate that population growth spreads to rural communities from nearby areas but that evidence on employment spread is less robust. The Henry et al. modification to Boarnet adds insight into how urban growth affects proximate rural areas by decomposing the spatial cross-regressive term into rural area, urban core, and urban fringe effects.

Size and growth of urban centers in French labor market areas: consequences for rural population and employment

Abstract In this paper we use an extension of the Carlino and Mills and Boarnet models to test for city size and growth influences on rural population and employment changes. In a sample of communes in six selected French regions, we find that both the size of the urban center and the growth rates of urban employment and population affect rural population and employment change. Medium size urban places have the strongest positive impacts on rural commune change.

Agglomeration Economies and Spatial Configurations in Rural Areas

The question to be addressed in this paper is that of the agglomeration and dispersion forces that are likely to account for the location of people and jobs in rural areas and the way these forces explain spatial patterns in rural areas depending on urban influence. Economic geography models may provide suitable tools with which to investigate the organization of rural areas. We first review these models, focusing on dispersion forces, which rest on land consumption and transport costs. We then suggest a set of hypotheses concerning the main forces at work in rural areas. Intensity of agglomeration economies is hypothesized to be related to urban size, which in turn induces increasing land rents and finally agglomeration diseconomies. Such diseconomies encourage population spread around the city and in a second stage a possible partial decentralization of population-serving firms, which seek proximity to households because of shopping transport costs. The consequences in terms of spatial patterns are that beyond a certain threshold of city size, decentralization of population-serving firms occurs, giving rise to secondary service centers, whereas services remain concentrated in the center for smaller cities. Empirical results concerning population densities, labor-force exchanges, and distribution of residentiary services in labor-market areas surrounding cities in six French regions are presented.

Economic Geography and Contemporary Rural Dynamics: An Empirical Test on Some French Regions

SCHMITT B. (1999) Economic geography and contemporary rural dynamics: an empirical test on some French regions, Reg. Studies 33 , 697-711. This paper presents an economic geography framework used to account for rural population and employment changes. Besides agglomerative forces, these models introduce factors which induce household or firm dispersion that are identified as operative in rural areas. Population dispersion can be the outcome of increased urban land rents. Comparative advantages can affect the location of land-related activities. Technological externalities may lead to the dispersion of specific industrial sectors; and, job increases attract new residents, leading to the dispersion of some firms. We show that all these factors do not act at the same level, and a distinction can be made between forces acting within labour market areas and those acting between labour market areas. A simultaneous equation system is built to model the effect of these forces on population and job changes. It dis...

Does Regulation of Manure Land Application Work Against Agglomeration Economies? Theory and Evidence from the French Hog Sector

The well-known increase in the geographical concentration of hog production suggests the presence of agglomeration economies related to spatial spillovers and inter-dependencies among industries. In this paper, we examine whether the restrictions on land application of manure may weaken productivity gains arising from the agglomeration process. We develop a model of production showing the ambiguous spatial effect of land availability and the restriction on the manure application rate. Indeed, while the regulation of manure application triggers dispersion when manure is applied to land as a crop nutrient, it also prompts farmer to adopt manure treatment that favors agglomeration of hog production. Estimations of a reduced form of the spatial model with a spatial HAC procedure applied to data for French hog production for 1988 and 2000 confirm the ambiguous effect of land limitations induced by the restrictions on manure application. It does not prevent spatial concentration of hog production, and even boosts the role played by spatial spillovers in the agglomeration process.

Life Cycle Variability in the Microeconomic Determinants of Urban-Rural Migration

Abstract The objective of this study is to provide an analytical framework that would make it possible to identify the factors that account for individual mobility as a function of the position in the life cycle and of the geographic – i.e. urban or rural – origin. We start with the hypothesis that migration decisions result from a complex calculus where the individual aims at satisfying certain needs (occupational and residential) in the face of certain constraints (financial, familial or educational) while taking into account the local levels of the supply of labour, housing, environment, availability of services, etc. Those needs and constraints differ at every stage of an individual’s life cycle. The probability of migration between 1982 and 1990 is estimated using a national sub-sample extracted from the French Permanent Demographic Sample (EDP). The results show that, among individuals aged 15 to 24 in 1982, occupational concerns have a significant effect on migration choice, especially among the young who were living in a rural area in 1982. Among 25-44 year-olds, family structure (including the birth of children) and the type of accommodation play a prominent role in accounting for migration, while the occupation seems less important. Among the older age groups (those who were aged 45 to 64 in 1982), retirement combined with changes in family structure (the empty nest stage) affects the probability of migration, particularly for individuals who were residing in an urban area at the beginning of the period.

Les déterminants micro-économiques des migrations urbain-rural : leur variabilité en fonction de la position dans le cycle de vie

L’objectif de ce travail est de proposer une grille d’analyse qui permette de distinguer les facteurs explicatifs des mobilites des individus selon leur position dans le cycle de vie et selon leur origine geographique (urbaine, rurale). Nous partons de l’hypothese que les decisions de migration sont le resultat d’un arbitrage visant a satisfaire, sous contraintes (financieres, familiales, de qualification, etc.), certains besoins (d’ordre professionnel et residentiel) compte tenu des niveaux de l’offre locale de travail, logements, amenites naturelles, services aux particuliers, etc. Ces besoins et contraintes sont differents a chaque phase du cycle de vie de l’individu. L’estimation de la probabilite de migrer entre 1982 et 1990, realisee sur un sous-echantillon national extrait de l’echantillon demographique permanent (EDP), montre que, chez les individus âges de 15 a 24 ans en 1982, les preoccupations professionnelles contribuent significativement a expliquer les choix de migration, et ce, plus particulierement pour les jeunes qui residaient dans le rural en 1982. La structure familiale (agrandissement de la famille) et le statut d’occupation du logement jouent un role preponderant dans l’explication des migrations des 25-44 ans, alors que la situation professionnelle semble, pour eux, moins influente. Chez les plus âges (45-64 ans en 1982), le passage a la retraite, associe aux changements dans les structures familiales (depart des enfants), influe sur les probabilites de migration, notamment pour les individus qui residaient en milieu urbain en debut de periode.

Does the agro-food industry impact on changes in regional employment and population? The case of Denmark

Abstract This paper uses a regional adjustment model to compare employment and population change in Denmark from 1997 to 2006. The classical Boarnet model is modified by explicitly addressing employment in the agro-food, manufacturing, and services sectors, allowing an investigation into the role of the agro-industry in regional development. We find that employment growth in the agro-food sector has a positive impact on population growth, while employment growth in the agro-food sector has no significant impact on the employment growth in manufacturing and service sectors. We also find that agro-food sector employment is not particularly associated with rural areas. Agro-food employment has experienced higher growth in urban areas (with higher density) than in rural areas. Furthermore, there is no impact of easier access to the agricultural sector on agro-food employment.

Determinants of local population growth and economic development in France between 1990 and 2006

This paper analyzes local population and employment growth drivers for French data aggregated at a local level for the 1990-2006, 1990-1999, 1999-2006 periods. A simultaneous equation system, linking changes in local population and employment, is estimated. Jobs are split between export (manufacturing) and personal service sectors. The main findings are that ?people follow jobs? and simultaneously that ?jobs follow people?. However, the population only follows ?export? jobs and this effect is strengthening between the first and the second period. Whereas the ?jobs follow people? assertion is true whatever the period for the ?residential? sector, it is observed for the 1990-1999 period only for the export sector and this relation becomes insignificant for the period 1999-2006. While it is difficult to know which effect is dominant over the first period, the results lead to a dominant impact of ?people follow (export) jobs? in the most recent period.

Brakes and Levers to Reduce the Dependence on Imports in the Middle East-North Africa Region

The two reference scenarios and the results analysed previously rely on mere extensions of past trends and do not take into account possible breaks or ruptures other than those of accentuated climate change. Naturally, then, they are ‘scenarios of inaction’ which typically illustrate what might happen in the Middle East-North Africa region if ‘nothing is done’. We should first note that many of our hypotheses could be challenged by more marked changes, upwards or downwards, of certain contextual elements. Thus our demographic hypotheses, based on the UN’s median projection, do not take into account their inherent high levels of uncertainty. For this world region, the UN’s high and low projections reveal a potential variability of about +/−15% around the median projection. Similarly, changes in diets could be more marked. The Middle East has been falling behind in dietary terms over the past few decades and it could catch up. Or there could be an accentuation of Western characteristics in diets due to eating behaviour among the fringes of the region’s youngest population. In light of these further changes in various components of the agricultural and food system of the region, we must also consider the levers that regional governments could use to try to reduce the extreme dependence on agricultural imports towards which most countries in the Middle East-North Africa region are moving.