Ai Milojevic

Association of mortality with high temperatures in a temperate climate: England and Wales

Background It is well known that high ambient temperatures are associated with increased mortality, even in temperate climates, but some important details are unclear. In particular, how heat–mortality associations (for example, slopes and thresholds) vary by climate has previously been considered only qualitatively. Methods An ecological time-series regression analysis of daily counts of all-cause mortality and ambient temperature in summers between 1993 and 2006 in the 10 government regions was carried out, focusing on all-cause mortality and 2-day mean temperature (lags 0 and 1). Results All regions showed evidence of increased risk on the hottest days, but the specifics, in particular the threshold temperature at which adverse effects started, varied. Thresholds were at about the same centile temperatures (the 93rd, year-round) in all regions—hotter climates had higher threshold temperatures. Mean supra-threshold slope was 2.1%/°C (95% CI 1.6 to 2.6), but regions with higher summer temperatures showed greater slopes, a pattern well characterised by a linear model with mean summer temperature. These climate-based linear-threshold models capture most, but not all, the association; there was evidence for some non-linearity above thresholds, with slope increasing at highest temperatures. Conclusion Effects of high daily summer temperatures on mortality in English regions are quite well approximated by threshold-linear models that can be predicted from the regions climate (93rd centile and mean summer temperature). It remains to be seen whether similar relationships fit other countries and climates or change over time, such as with climate change.

Short-term effects of air pollution on a range of cardiovascular events in England and Wales: case-crossover analysis of the MINAP database, hospital admissions and mortality

Objective To inform potential pathophysiological mechanisms of air pollution effects on cardiovascular disease (CVD), we investigated short-term associations between ambient air pollution and a range of cardiovascular events from three national databases in England and Wales. Methods Using a time-stratified case-crossover design, over 400 000 myocardial infarction (MI) events from the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP) database, over 2 million CVD emergency hospital admissions and over 600 000 CVD deaths were linked with daily mean concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), particulate matter less than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10), particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) and sulfur dioxide (SO2), and daily maximum of 8-hourly running mean of O3 measured at the nearest air pollution monitoring site to the place of residence. Pollutant effects were modelled using lags up to 4 days and adjusted for ambient temperature and day of week. Results For mortality, no CVD outcome analysed was clearly associated with any pollutant, except for PM2.5 with arrhythmias, atrial fibrillation and pulmonary embolism. With hospital admissions, only NO2 was associated with a raised risk: CVD 1.7% (95% CI 0.9 to 2.6), non-MI CVD 2.0% (1.1 to 2.9), arrhythmias 2.9% (0.6 to 5.2), atrial fibrillation 2.8% (0.3 to 5.4) and heart failure 4.4% (2.0 to 6.8) for a 10th–90th centile increase. With MINAP, only NO2 was associated with an increased risk of MI, which was specific to non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (non-STEMIs): 3.6% (95% CI 0.4 to 6.9). Conclusions This study found no clear evidence for pollution effects on STEMIs and stroke, which ultimately represent thrombogenic processes, though it did for pulmonary embolism. The strongest associations with air pollution were observed with selected non-MI outcomes.

Ozone, heat and mortality: acute effects in 15 British conurbations

Background Acute associations between mortality and ozone are largely accepted, though recent evidence is less conclusive. Evidence on ozone–heat interaction is sparse. We assess effects of ozone, heat, and their interaction, on mortality in Britain. Methods Acute effects of summer ozone on mortality were estimated using data from 15 conurbations in England and Wales (May–September, 1993–2003). 2-day means of daily maximum 8-h ozone were entered into case series analyses, controlling for particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter of <10 μm, natural cubic splines of temperature, and other factors. Heat effects were estimated, comparing adjusted mortality rates at 97.5th and 75th percentiles of 2-day mean temperature. A separate model employed interaction terms to assess whether ozone effects increased on ‘hot days’ (where 2-day mean temperature exceeded the whole-year 95th percentile). Other heat metrics, and non-linear ozone effects, were also examined. Results Adverse ozone and heat effects occurred in nearly all conurbations. The mean mortality rate ratio for heat effect across conurbations was 1.071 (1.050–1.093). The mean ozone rate ratio was 1.003 per 10 μg/m3 ozone increase (95% CI 1.001 to 1.005). On ‘hot days’ the mean ozone effect reached 1.006 (1.002–1.009) per 10 μg/m3, though ozone–heat interaction was significant in London only. On substituting maximum for mean temperature, the overall ozone effect reduced to null, though evidence remained of effects on hot days, particularly in London. An estimated ozone effect threshold was below current guidelines in ‘mean temperature’ models. Conclusion While heat showed robust effects on summer mortality, estimates for ozone depended upon the modelling of temperature. However, there was some evidence that ozone effects were worse on hot days, whichever temperature measure was used.

Current and future climate- and air pollution-mediated impacts on human health

BackgroundWe describe a project to quantify the burden of heat and ozone on mortality in the UK, both for the present-day and under future emission scenarios.MethodsMortality burdens attributable to heat and ozone exposure are estimated by combination of climate-chemistry modelling and epidemiological risk assessment. Weather forecasting models (WRF) are used to simulate the driving meteorology for the EMEP4UK chemistry transport model at 5 km by 5 km horizontal resolution across the UK; the coupled WRF-EMEP4UK model is used to simulate daily surface temperature and ozone concentrations for the years 2003, 2005 and 2006, and for future emission scenarios. The outputs of these models are combined with evidence on the ozone-mortality and heat-mortality relationships derived from epidemiological analyses (time series regressions) of daily mortality in 15 UK conurbations, 1993-2003, to quantify present-day health burdens.ResultsDuring the August 2003 heatwave period, elevated ozone concentrations > 200 μg m-3 were measured at sites in London and elsewhere. This and other ozone photochemical episodes cause breaches of the UK air quality objective for ozone. Simulations performed with WRF-EMEP4UK reproduce the August 2003 heatwave temperatures and ozone concentrations. There remains day-to-day variability in the high ozone concentrations during the heatwave period, which on some days may be explained by ozone import from the European continent.Preliminary calculations using extended time series of spatially-resolved WRF-EMEP4UK model output suggest that in the summers (May to September) of 2003, 2005 & 2006 over 6000 deaths were attributable to ozone and around 5000 to heat in England and Wales. The regional variation in these deaths appears greater for heat-related than for ozone-related burdens.Changes in UK health burdens due to a range of future emission scenarios will be quantified. These future emissions scenarios span a range of possible futures from assuming current air quality legislation is fully implemented, to a more optimistic case with maximum feasible reductions, through to a more pessimistic case with continued strong economic growth and minimal implementation of air quality legislation.ConclusionElevated surface ozone concentrations during the 2003 heatwave period led to exceedences of the current UK air quality objective standards. A coupled climate-chemistry model is able to reproduce these temperature and ozone extremes. By combining model simulations of surface temperature and ozone with ozone-heat-mortality relationships derived from an epidemiological regression model, we estimate present-day and future health burdens across the UK. Future air quality legislation may need to consider the risk of increases in future heatwaves.

Health Effects of Flooding in Rural Bangladesh

Background: There is little information available on nontraumatic health risks as the result of floods, and on the factors that determine vulnerability to them (especially in low-income settings). We estimated the pattern of mortality, diarrhea, and acute respiratory infection following the 2004 floods in rural Bangladesh. Methods: We conducted controlled interrupted time-series analysis of adverse health outcomes, from 2001 to 2007, in a cohort of 211,000 residents of the Matlab region classified as flooded or nonflooded in 2004. Ratios of mortality, diarrhea, and acute respiratory infection rates in flooded compared with nonflooded areas were calculated by week for mortality and diarrhea, and by month for acute respiratory infection. We controlled for baseline differences as well as normal seasonal patterns in the flooded and nonflooded areas. Variations in flood-related health risks were examined by age, income level, drinking-water source, latrine type, and service area. Results: After fully controlling for pre-flood rate differences and for seasonality, there was no clear evidence of excesses in mortality or diarrhea risk during or after flooding. For acute respiratory infection, we found no evidence of excess risk during the flood itself but a moderate increase in risk during the 6 months after the flood (relative risk = 1.25 [95% confidence interval = 1.06–1.47]) and the subsequent 18 months. Conclusions: We found little evidence of increased risk of diarrhea or mortality following the floods, but evidence of a moderate elevation in risk of acute respiratory infection during the 2 years after flooding. The discrepancies between our results and the apparent excesses for mortality and diarrhea reported in other situations, using less- controlled estimates, emphasize the importance of stringent confounder control.

Serum Levels of Retinol and Other Antioxidants for Hearing Impairment Among Japanese Older Adults

BACKGROUND The objective of this study was to assess the relation between serum levels of retinol and other antioxidants and hearing impairment in Japanese older adults. METHODS This is a community-based cross-sectional study comprising 762 residents aged 65 years or older in Kurabuchi, Gumma, Japan. We measured serum retinol and other antioxidants (alpha- and gamma-tocopherols, and carotenoids including beta-cryptoxanthin, alpha- and beta-carotenes, lycopene, and lutein plus zeaxanthin) by high-performance liquid chromatography and divided each measurement into quartiles. Hearing impairment was defined as a failure to hear a 30-dB hearing level (HL) signal at 1 kHz and a 40-dB HL signal at 4 kHz in the better ear in pure-tone audiometric tests. The odds ratios (OR) for hearing impairment were calculated for each of the upper three quartiles of retinol and other antioxidant levels relative to the lowest quartile. RESULTS Crude analysis showed that serum levels of retinol and provitamin A carotenoids (beta-cryptoxanthin, and alpha- and beta-carotenes) were inversely related to the prevalence of hearing impairment. The multiadjusted ORs (95% confidence intervals) for the highest quartile of retinol and the provitamin A family (combinations of provitamin A carotenoids) compared with the lowest were 0.51 (0.26-1.00) and 0.53 (0.27-1.02), respectively. A dose-response relationship was observed for retinol (p = .03) and provitamin A (p = .09). CONCLUSION Increased serum levels of retinol and provitamin A carotenoids were clearly associated with a decreased prevalence of hearing impairment.

Lifestyle Factors and Visible Skin Aging in a Population of Japanese Elders

Background The number of studies that use objective and quantitative methods to evaluate facial skin aging in elderly people is extremely limited, especially in Japan. Therefore, in this cross-sectional study we attempted to characterize the condition of facial skin (hyperpigmentation, pores, texture, and wrinkling) in Japanese adults aged 65 years or older by using objective and quantitative imaging methods. In addition, we aimed to identify lifestyle factors significantly associated with these visible signs of aging. Methods The study subjects were 802 community-dwelling Japanese men and women aged at least 65 years and living in the town of Kurabuchi (Takasaki City, Gunma Prefecture, Japan), a mountain community with a population of approximately 4800. The facial skin condition of subjects was assessed quantitatively using a standardized facial imaging system and subsequent computer image analysis. Lifestyle information was collected using a structured questionnaire. The association between skin condition and lifestyle factors was examined using multivariable regression analysis. Results Among women, the mean values for facial texture, hyperpigmentation, and pores were generally lower than those among age-matched men. There was no significant difference between sexes in the severity of facial wrinkling. Older age was associated with worse skin condition among women only. After adjusting for age, smoking status and topical sun protection were significantly associated with skin condition among both men and women. Conclusions Our study revealed significant differences between sexes in the severity of hyperpigmentation, texture, and pores, but not wrinkling. Smoking status and topical sun protection were significantly associated with signs of visible skin aging in this study population.

Gender-specific associations of vision and hearing impairments with adverse health outcomes in older Japanese: a population-based cohort study

BackgroundSeveral epidemiological studies have shown that self-reported vision and hearing impairments are associated with adverse health outcomes (AHOs) in older populations; however, few studies have used objective sensory measurements or investigated the role of gender in this association. Therefore, we examined the association of vision and hearing impairments (as measured by objective methods) with AHOs (dependence in activities of daily living or death), and whether this association differed by gender.MethodsFrom 2005 to 2006, a total of 801 residents (337 men and 464 women) aged 65 years or older of Kurabuchi Town, Gunma, Japan, participated in a baseline examination that included vision and hearing assessments; they were followed up through September 2008. Vision impairment was defined as a corrected visual acuity of worse than 0.5 (logMAR = 0.3) in the better eye, and hearing impairment was defined as a failure to hear a 30 dB hearing level signal at 1 kHz in the better ear. Information on outcomes was obtained from the town hall and through face-to-face home visit interviews. We calculated the risk ratios (RRs) of AHOs for vision and hearing impairments according to gender.ResultsDuring a mean follow-up period of 3 years, 34 men (10.1%) and 52 women (11.3%) had AHOs. In both genders, vision impairment was related to an elevated risk of AHOs (multi-adjusted RR for men and women together = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.05-2.44), with no statistically significant interaction between the genders. In contrast, a significant association between hearing impairment and AHOs (multi-adjusted RR = 3.10, 95% CI = 1.43-6.72) was found only in the men.ConclusionIn this older Japanese population, sensory impairments were clearly associated with AHOs, and the association appeared to vary according to gender. Gender-specific associations between sensory impairments and AHOs warrant further investigation.

Methods to Estimate Acclimatization to the Urban Heat Island Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality.

Background: Investigators have examined whether heat mortality risk is increased in neighborhoods subject to the urban heat island (UHI) effect but have not identified degrees of difference in susceptibility to heat and cold between cool and hot areas, which we call acclimatization to the UHI. Objectives: We developed methods to examine and quantify the degree of acclimatization to heat- and cold-related mortality in relation to UHI anomalies and applied these methods to London, UK. Methods: Case–crossover analyses were undertaken on 1993–2006 mortality data from London UHI decile groups defined by anomalies from the London average of modeled air temperature at a 1-km grid resolution. We estimated how UHI anomalies modified excess mortality on cold and hot days for London overall and displaced a fixed-shape temperature-mortality function (“shifted spline” model). We also compared the observed associations with those expected under no or full acclimatization to the UHI. Results: The relative risk of death on hot versus normal days differed very little across UHI decile groups. A 1°C UHI anomaly multiplied the risk of heat death by 1.004 (95% CI: 0.950, 1.061) (interaction rate ratio) compared with the expected value of 1.070 (1.057, 1.082) if there were no acclimatization. The corresponding UHI interaction for cold was 1.020 (0.979, 1.063) versus 1.030 (1.026, 1.034) (actual versus expected under no acclimatization, respectively). Fitted splines for heat shifted little across UHI decile groups, again suggesting acclimatization. For cold, the splines shifted somewhat in the direction of no acclimatization, but did not exclude acclimatization. Conclusions: We have proposed two analytical methods for estimating the degree of acclimatization to the heat- and cold-related mortality burdens associated with UHIs. The results for London suggest relatively complete acclimatization to the UHI effect on summer heat–related mortality, but less clear evidence for cold–related mortality. Citation: Milojevic A, Armstrong BG, Gasparrini A, Bohnenstengel SI, Barratt B, Wilkinson P. 2016. Methods to estimate acclimatization to urban heat island effects on heat- and cold-related mortality. Environ Health Perspect 124:1016–1022; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1510109

Decision support for risk prioritisation of environmental health hazards in a UK city

BackgroundThere is increasing appreciation of the proportion of the health burden that is attributed to modifiable population exposure to environmental health hazards. To manage this avoidable burden in the United Kingdom (UK), government policies and interventions are implemented. In practice, this procedure is interdisciplinary in action and multi-dimensional in context. Here, we demonstrate how Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can be used as a decision support tool to facilitate priority setting for environmental public health interventions within local authorities. We combine modelling and expert elicitation to gather evidence on the impacts and ranking of interventions.MethodsTo present the methodology, we consider a hypothetical scenario in a UK city. We use MCDA to evaluate and compare the impact of interventions to reduce the health burden associated with four environmental health hazards and rank them in terms of their overall performance across several criteria. For illustrative purposes, we focus on heavy goods vehicle controls to reduce outdoor air pollution, remediation to control levels of indoor radon, carbon monoxide and fitting alarms, and encouraging cycling to target the obesogenic environment. Regional data was included as model evidence to construct a ratings matrix for the city.ResultsWhen MCDA is performed with uniform weights, the intervention of heavy goods vehicle controls to reduce outdoor air pollution is ranked the highest. Cycling and the obesogenic environment is ranked second.ConclusionsWe argue that a MCDA based approach provides a framework to guide environmental public health decision makers. This is demonstrated through an online interactive MCDA tool. We conclude that MCDA is a transparent tool that can be used to compare the impact of alternative interventions on a set of pre-defined criteria. In our illustrative example, we ranked the best intervention across the equally weighted selected criteria out of the four alternatives. Further work is needed to test the tool with decision makers and stakeholders.