Aidan Keane

Analysis of Patterns of Bushmeat Consumption Reveals Extensive Exploitation of Protected Species in Eastern Madagascar

Understanding the patterns of wild meat consumption from tropical forests is important for designing approaches to address this major threat to biodiversity and mitigate potential pathways for transmission of emerging diseases. Bushmeat consumption has been particularly poorly studied in Madagascar, one of the worlds hottest biodiversity hotspots. Studying bushmeat consumption is challenging as many species are protected and researchers must consider the incentives faced by informants. Using interviews with 1154 households in 12 communes in eastern Madagascar, as well as local monitoring data, we investigated the importance of socio-economic variables, taste preference and traditional taboos on consumption of 50 wild and domestic species. The majority of meals contain no animal protein. However, respondents consume a wide range of wild species and 95% of respondents have eaten at least one protected species (and nearly 45% have eaten more than 10). The rural/urban divide and wealth are important predictors of bushmeat consumption, but the magnitude and direction of the effect varies between species. Bushmeat species are not preferred and are considered inferior to fish and domestic animals. Taboos have provided protection to some species, particularly the Endangered Indri, but we present evidence that this taboo is rapidly eroding. By considering a variety of potential influences on consumption in a single study we have improved understanding of who is eating bushmeat and why. Evidence that bushmeat species are not generally preferred meats suggest that projects which increase the availability of domestic meat and fish may have success at reducing demand. We also suggest that enforcement of existing wildlife and firearm laws should be a priority, particularly in areas undergoing rapid social change. The issue of hunting as an important threat to biodiversity in Madagascar is only now being fully recognised. Urgent action is required to ensure that heavily hunted species are adequately protected.

Novel approach for quantifying illegal bushmeat consumption reveals high consumption of protected species in Madagascar

Information on the extent of bushmeat hunting is needed to assess the likely impact on hunted species, to provide information on the opportunity cost to local people of conservation, and to judge the efficacy of interventions at reducing pressure. However, where hunting is illegal, or socially unacceptable, respondents may not answer honestly to direct questions about hunting or consumption of bushmeat. We adapted a specialized method for investigating sensitive behaviours (the randomized response technique, RRT) and questioned 1,851 people in Madagascar about their consumption of six species, using either RRT or direct questions. For most species at most sites RRT and direct questions returned similar estimates of the proportion of the population who had consumed bushmeat in the previous year. However, RRT resulted in significantly higher estimates of bushmeat consumption in communities surrounding a protected area, where conservation activities made such questions sensitive. RRT has been predominately used in Europe and the USA; we demonstrate that it can provide a valuable approach for studying rule-breaking among people with poor literacy in low income countries. Between 12 and 33% of people across our sites had eaten brown lemur ( Eulemur spp.), and 12–29% had eaten sifaka ( Propithecus spp.) in the previous year. These results add to the growing body of evidence that hunting of protected species in Madagascar is a serious problem requiring urgent action. Conservation interventions to tackle bushmeat hunting will make questions about hunting or consumption more sensitive, increasing the need for researchers to use appropriate approaches for asking sensitive questions.

FORUM: Robust study design is as important on the social as it is on the ecological side of applied ecological research

Summary 1. The effective management of natural systems often requires resource users to change their behaviour. This has led to many applied ecologists using research tools developed by social scientists. This comes with challenges as ecologists often lack relevant disciplinary training. 2. Using an example from the current issue of Journal of Applied Ecology that investigated how conservation interventions influenced conservation outcomes, we discuss the challenges of conducting interdisciplinary science. We illustrate our points using examples from research investigating the role of law enforcement and outreach activities in limiting illegal poaching and the application of the theory of planned behaviour to conservation. 3. Synthesis and applications. Interdisciplinary research requires equal rigour to be applied to ecological and social aspects. Researchers with a natural science background need to access expertise and training in the principles of social science research design and methodology, in order to permit a more balanced interdisciplinary understanding of social–ecological systems.

Taxis assays measure directional movement of mosquitoes to olfactory cues

BackgroundMalaria control methods targeting indoor-biting mosquitoes have limited impact on vectors that feed and rest outdoors. Exploiting mosquito olfactory behaviour to reduce blood-feeding outdoors might be a sustainable approach to complement existing control strategies. Methodologies that can objectively quantify responses to odour under realistic field conditions and allow high-throughput screening of many compounds are required for development of effective odour-based control strategies.MethodsThe olfactory responses of laboratory-reared Anopheles gambiae in a semi-field tunnel and A. arabiensis females in an outdoor field setting to three stimuli, namely whole human odour, a synthetic blend of carboxylic acids plus carbon dioxide and CO2 alone at four distances up to 100 metres were measured in two experiments using three-chambered taxis boxes that allow mosquito responses to natural or experimentally-introduced odour cues to be quantified.ResultsTaxis box assays could detect both activation of flight and directional mosquito movement. Significantly more (6-18%) A. arabiensis mosquitoes were attracted to natural human odour in the field up to 30 metres compared to controls, and blended synthetic human odours attracted 20% more A. gambiae in the semi-field tunnel up to 70 metres. Whereas CO2 elicited no response in A. arabiensis in the open field, it was attractive to A. gambiae up to 50 metres (65% attraction compared to 36% in controls).ConclusionsWe have developed a simple reproducible system to allow for the comparison of compounds that are active over medium- to long-ranges in semi-field or full-field environments. Knowing the natural range of attraction of anopheline mosquitoes to potential blood sources has substantial implications for the design of malaria control strategies, and adds to the understanding of olfactory behaviour in mosquitoes. This experimental strategy could also be extended from malaria vectors to other motile arthropods of medical, veterinary and agricultural significance.

Modelling the effect of individual strategic behaviour on community-level outcomes of conservation interventions

SUMMARY Many conservation interventions seek to change resource users’ behaviour through the creation and enforcement of rules. Their success depends on changing the incentives of potential rule-breakers and those who monitor and enforce compliance. Project implementers may use payments to encourage monitoring and sanctions to deter rule breaking but there has been little research to examine the effectiveness of such approaches in promoting compliance with conservation rules. The effects of payments and sanctions on poaching in a hypothetical community-based conservation project were investigated using an individual-based model incorporating individual heterogeneity and a realistic range of behaviours. Individuals could choose to poach, monitor others’ behaviour, or ‘cheat’ (claim a fee without actually monitoring behaviour). They could also invest in avoidance to reduce their probability of being detected breaking rules. Community-level outcomes emerged from individuals’ choices and strategic interactions. The model demonstrates that payments and sanctions can interact strongly with one another and that their effects depend on the economic context in which they are applied. Sanctions were more reliable than payments in reducing poaching and, in some circumstances, payments produced perverse effects. It is thus important to consider individual-level heterogeneity and strategic decision-making when designing interventions aimed at changing human behaviour.

Managing wildlife for ecological, socioeconomic, and evolutionary sustainability

Selective harvesting of animals is widespread throughout the marine, freshwater, and terrestrial environments and affects a diverse list of species, including fish, mammals, birds, and reptiles (1). Such harvesting can cause changes in the distribution of phenotypic traits within target populations, often with undesirable biological and economic consequences. For example, selective harvesting has been linked to declines in the size of trophy horns in two antelope species in Zimbabwe (2) and of antlers in red deer ( Cervus elaphus ) in Europe (3, 4), as well as to earlier maturation in some fish species (5). However, the extent to which these changes are the result of ecological or evolutionary mechanisms has been much debated (1). In PNAS, Traill et al. (6) approach this question from a novel angle by developing stochastic two-sex integral projection models (IPMs) capable of differentiating between the ecological and evolutionary effects of selective harvest. Their finding that evolutionary mechanisms contribute relatively little to observed changes in the body mass of bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) is an intriguing contribution to the debate over the evolutionary consequences of selective offtake, contradicting earlier studies (7). In addition, Traill et al. (6) suggest that their method could be adopted more widely to allow wildlife managers and conservation practitioners to incorporate the potential evolutionary effects of selective harvesting into their management planning. Here, we explore this suggestion by discussing key challenges that would need to be addressed to translate the approach by Traill et al. (6) from a purely biological model to an effective management model, focusing particularly on issues of data availability and the incorporation of different forms of uncertainty. The … [↵][1]1To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: nils.bunnefeld{at}stir.ac.uk or a.keane{at}imperial.ac.uk. [1]: #xref-corresp-1-1

The changing environment of conservation conflict: Geese and farming in Scotland

Conflict between conservation objectives and human livelihoods is ubiquitous and can be highly damaging, but the processes generating it are poorly understood. Ecological elements are central to conservation conflict, and changes in their dynamics — for instance due to anthropogenic environmental change — are likely to influence the emergence of serious human–wildlife impacts and, consequently, social conflict. We used mixed-effects models to examine the drivers of historic spatio-temporal dynamics in numbers of Greenland barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis) on the Scottish island of Islay to identify the ecological processes that have shaped the environment in which conflict between goose conservation and agriculture has been triggered. Barnacle goose numbers on Islay increased from 20,000 to 43,000 between 1987 and 2016. Over the same period, the area of improved grassland increased, the number of sheep decreased and the climate warmed. Goose population growth was strongly linked to the increasing area of improved grassland, which provided geese with more high quality forage. Changing climatic conditions, particularly warming temperatures on Islay and breeding grounds in Greenland, have also boosted goose numbers. As the goose population has grown, farms have supported geese more frequently and in larger numbers, with subsequent damaging effects on grassland. The creation of high-quality grassland appears to have largely driven the problem of serious economic damage by geese. Our analysis also reveals the drivers of spatial variation in goose impacts: geese were more likely to occur on farms closer to roosts and those with more improved grassland. However, as geese numbers have increased they have spread to previously less favoured farms. Synthesis and applications. Our study demonstrates the primary role of habitat modification in the emergence of conflict between goose conservation and agriculture, alongside a secondary role of climate change. Our research illustrates the value of exploring socio-ecological history to understand the processes leading to conservation conflict. In doing so, we identify those elements that are more controllable, such as local habitat management, and less controllable, such as climate change, but which both need to be taken into account when managing conservation conflict.

A quasi-experimental study of impacts of Tanzania’s wildlife management areas on rural livelihoods and wealth

Since the 2000s, Tanzania’s natural resource management policy has emphasised Wildlife Management Areas (WMAs), designed to promote wildlife and biodiversity conservation, poverty alleviation and rural development. We carried out a quasi-experimental impact evaluation of social impacts of WMAs, collecting data from 24 villages participating in 6 different WMAs across two geographical regions, and 18 statistically matched control villages. Across these 42 villages, we collected participatory wealth ranking data for 13,578 households. Using this as our sampling frame, we conducted questionnaire surveys with a stratified sample of 1,924 household heads and 945 household heads’ wives. All data were collected in 2014/15, with a subset of questions devoted to respondents’ recall on conditions that existed in 2007, when first WMAs became operational. Questions addressed household demographics, land and livestock assets, resource use, income-generating activities and portfolios, participation in natural resource management decision-making, benefits and costs of conservation. Datasets permit research on livelihood and wealth trajectories, and social impacts, costs and benefits of conservation interventions in the context of community-based natural resource management.

Games as Tools to Address Conservation Conflicts

Conservation conflicts represent complex multilayered problems that are challenging to study. We explore the utility of theoretical, experimental, and constructivist approaches to games to help to understand and manage these challenges. We show how these approaches can help to develop theory, understand patterns in conflict, and highlight potentially effective management solutions. The choice of approach should be guided by the research question and by whether the focus is on testing hypotheses, predicting behaviour, or engaging stakeholders. Games provide an exciting opportunity to help to unravel the complexity in conflicts, while researchers need an awareness of the limitations and ethical constraints involved. Given the opportunities, this field will benefit from greater investment and development.

Detecting deterrence from patrol data

Abstract The threat posed to protected areas by the illegal killing of wildlife is countered principally by ranger patrols that aim to detect and deter potential offenders. Deterring poaching is a fundamental conservation objective, but its achievement is difficult to identify, especially when the prime source of information comes in the form of the patrols’ own records, which inevitably contain biases. The most common metric of deterrence is a plot of illegal activities detected per unit of patrol effort (CPUE) against patrol effort (CPUE‐E). We devised a simple, mechanistic model of law breaking and law enforcement in which we simulated deterrence alongside exogenous changes in the frequency of offences under different temporal patterns of enforcement effort. The CPUE‐E plots were not reliable indicators of deterrence. However, plots of change in CPUE over change in effort (ΔCPUE‐ΔE) reliably identified deterrence, regardless of the temporal distribution of effort or any exogenous change in illegal activity levels as long as the time lag between patrol effort and subsequent behavioral change among offenders was approximately known. The ΔCPUE‐ΔE plots offered a robust, simple metric for monitoring patrol effectiveness; were no more conceptually complicated than the basic CPUE‐E plots; and required no specialist knowledge or software to produce. Our findings demonstrate the need to account for temporal autocorrelation in patrol data and to consider appropriate (and poaching‐activity‐specific) intervals for aggregation. They also reveal important gaps in understanding of deterrence in this context, especially the mechanisms by which it occurs. In practical applications, we recommend the use of ΔCPUE‐ΔE plots in preference to other basic metrics and advise that deterrence should be suspected only if there is a clear negative slope. Distinct types of illegal activity should not be grouped together for analysis, especially if the signs of their occurrence have different persistence times in the environment.