Alan McDonald

Long-term performance targets for nuclear energy. Part 2: Markets and learning rates

This paper estimates investment cost targets for future nuclear power plants to be competitive in mid-21st century energy markets and beyond. The point of departure is the nuclear market shares derived from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. One provocative result is that substantial nuclear expansion does not seem to require big reductions in nuclear investment costs, largely explained by the difference between cost reductions consistent with long-term energy system optimisation based on perfect foresight, and cost reductions necessary to attract private investment in todays deregulating and uncertain energy markets.

Long-term performance targets for nuclear energy. Part 1: The global scenario context

This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the worlds energy system might look like in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energys role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Four illustrative marker scenarios are selected and include growing but varying contributions from nuclear power to electricity supply, while in some scenarios nuclear energy also supplements hydrogen supply by 2050. For each marker scenario, the paper analyses the generic design features of future nuclear power technologies and fuel cycles consistent with the underlying scenario storylines.