Alexander Mahura

Impact of Asian emissions on the remote North Pacific atmosphere: Interpretation of CO data from Shemya, Guam, Midway and Mauna Loa

In this study we look at the concentration of CO at four remote stations in the North Pacific to evaluate the impact of Asian industrial emissions on the remote atmosphere. Using a locally weighted smoothing technique to identify individual data outliers from the seasonal cycle, we have identified 22–92 outliers or “events” (greater than 5 ppbv above the seasonal cycle) at each site for the 3–6 year data records. Using isentropic back trajectories, we identify a possible source region for each event and present a distribution of the trajectory types. For the events at Midway, Mauna Loa, Guam, and Shemya, we are able to identify a source region for the elevated CO in 82, 72, 65, and 50% of the events, respectively. At Mauna Loa and Midway a majority of the events occur during spring and are usually associated with transport from Asia. These events bring the highest CO mixing ratios observed at any time during the year to these sites, with CO enhancements up to 46 ppb. At Guam, easterly trade winds are the norm, but occasionally synoptic events bring Asian emissions to the island, generally during late summer and fall, from either East Asia or Southeast Asia (e.g., Indonesia). These events bring with them the largest CO enhancements of any of the four sites considered in this paper, up to 58 ppb. Finally, to examine the robustness of our conclusions, we redo our analysis using the more stringent definition that an event must be either 10 or 15 ppb above the seasonal cycle. Although this reduces the number of events identified at each site, it does not significantly change the fraction of events which can be attributed to a known source.

Heavy metals on the Kola Peninsula: aerosol size distribution

The size distribution of aerosols containing metal was investigated in the Monchegorsk region. It was found that lead and arsenic occur predominantly in fine particles (<1 μm) and that copper and nickel occur both in fine (< 1 μm) and coarse particles. The mean ratios of total mass (all size ranges) Cu/Pb and Cu/As in the air were found to be 10 and 16, respectively. Comparing these ratios with the snowpack data of Jaffe et al. (1994) in the Monchegorsk region, we find an enhancement of Cu in the snowpack, relative to Pb and As. This is consistent with our observed size distributions and indicates that the Monchegorsk Pb and As emissions are transported longer distances than Cu and Ni prior to removal. Results show the importance of considering the size distribution of metal emissions in chemical transport and/or factor analysis type models.

Direct and Inverse Problems in a Variational Concept of Environmental Modeling

A concept of environmental forecasting based on a variational approach is discussed. The basic idea is to augment the existing technology of modeling by a combination of direct and inverse methods. By this means, the scope of environmental studies can be substantially enlarged. In the concept, mathematical models of processes and observation data subject to some uncertainties are considered. The modeling system is derived from a specially formulated weak-constraint variational principle. A set of algorithms for implementing the concept is presented. These are: algorithms for the solution of direct, adjoint, and inverse problems; adjoint sensitivity algorithms; data assimilation procedures; etc. Methods of quantitative estimations of uncertainty are of particular interest since uncertainty functions play a fundamental role for data assimilation, assessment of model quality, and inverse problem solving. A scenario approach is an essential part of the concept. Some methods of orthogonal decomposition of multi-dimensional phase spaces are used to reconstruct the hydrodynamic background fields from available data and to include climatic data into long-term prognostic scenarios. Subspaces with informative bases are constructed to use in deterministic or stochastic-deterministic scenarios for forecasting air quality and risk assessment. The results of implementing example scenarios for the Siberian regions are presented.

Aspects of Atmospheric Pollution in Siberia

This chapter considers specific atmospheric pollution problems in Siberia, the current state of studies and strategic activities, and peculiarities of Siberian environmental protection problems, risk assessment, and tendencies in atmospheric pollution in Siberia, including health-affecting pollutants, greenhouse gases, aerosols, etc. The chapter does not presume to cover all the aspects of atmospheric pollution in Siberia. Its main focus is a short general overview of the existing problems of airborne pollution in Siberia and methodological aspects of air pollution impact assessments followed by several examples of such studies for Siberia. In particular, the following issues are described: (1) sources and characteristics of air pollution in Siberia, (2) air quality and atmospheric composition characterization, (3) assessment of airborne pollution in Siberia from air and space, (4) methodology and models for air pollution assessment on different scales, and (5) case studies of long-range atmospheric transport of heavy metals from industries of the Ural and Norilsk regions.

Evaluation of source–receptor relationship for atmospheric pollutants using approaches of trajectory modelling, cluster, probability fields analyses and adjoint equations

In this paper, different approaches and models to evaluate source–receptor relationship for potential atmospheric pollutants on examples of source and receptor points/regions (the Euro–Arctic and North Pacific) are considered. The forward–backward trajectory modelling approach combined with statistical methods of cluster analysis and probability fields, and adjoint equations approach are discussed and illustrated. The combined consideration of the atmospheric transport pathways, airflow probability fields, and sensitivity functions of the source–receptor relationship as well as estimation of its spatial distribution and levels of joint impact/influence is presented. Based on the principal and adjoint equations for the regional transport of pollutants in the atmosphere a method for receptor sensitivity function assessments is considered and illustrated for an example study of Nordic countries regional sensitivity to radioactive contamination from hypothetical accidental releases.

Verification and Case Studies for Urban Effects in HIRLAM Numerical Weather Forecasting

In our study, the performance of the DMI HIgh Resolution Limited Area Models (HIRLAM)-U01/I01 research models (1.4 km horizontal resolution) with simple (urban roughness and anthropogenic heat flux) and complex (building effects parameterizations) urbanization were tested and verified. The simulations of the DMI-HIRLAM-U01/I01 without (i.e. the control run) and with the urbanized modules were performed in a short-term mode, i.e. for days with different meteorological conditions (such as typical and low winds), and in a long-term mode on a monthly basis. The comparison of the DMI-HIRLAM urbanized vs. control runs during the same period was performed. Detailed analyses of spatial and temporal variability of simulated conditions such as the wind characteristics, temperature and relative humidity over the metropolitan area of Copenhagen and surroundings were then completed. The diurnal variability of meteorological and derived characteristics over these urban areas was investigated. The verification of these characteristics was performed for selected urban/suburban stations located in the Copenhagen area.

SEASONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS ON POPULATION DUE TO CONTINUOUS SULPHUR EMISSIONS FROM SEVERONIKEL SMELTERS OF THE KOLA PENINSULA

This study is devoted to investigation of total deposition and loading patterns for population of the North-West Russia and Scandinavian countries due to continuous emissions (following “mild emission scenario”) of sulphates from the Cu-Ni smelters (Severonikel enterprise, Murmansk region, Russia). The Lagrangian long-range dispersion model (Danish Emergency Response Model for Atmosphere) was run in a long-term mode to simulate atmospheric transport, dispersion and deposition over the Northern Hemispheric’s domain north of 10°N, and results were integrated and analyzed in the GIS environment. Analysis was performed on annual and seasonal scales, including depositions, impact on urban areas and calculating individual and collective loadings on population in selected regions ofRussiaand Scandinavian countries. It was found that wet deposition dominates, and it is higher in winter. The North-West Russia is more influenced by the Severonikel emissions compared with the Scandinavian countries. Among urban areas, the Russian cities ofMurmansk(due to its proximity to the source) andArkhangelsk(due to dominating atmospheric flows) are under the highest impact. The yearly individual loadings on population are the largest (up to 120 kg/person) for theMurmanskregion; lower (15 kg/person) for territories of the northernNorway, and the smallest (less than 5 kg/person) for the easternFinland,KareliaRepublic, andArkhangelskregion. These loadings have distinct seasonal variability with a largest contribution during winter-spring for Russia, spring – for Norway, and autumn – for Finland and Sweden; and the lowest during summer (i.e. less than 10 and 1 kg/person for the Russia and Scandinavian countries, respectively). The yearly collective loadings for population living on the impacted territories inRussia,Finland,Norway, and Swedenare 2628, 140.4, 13, and 10.7 tonnes, respectively.

PAN-EURASIAN EXPERIMENT (PEEX) PROGRAM: AN OVERVIEW OF THE FIRST 5 YEARS IN OPERATION AND FUTURE PROSPECTS

The Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX) program was initiated as a bottom-up approach by the researchers coming fromFinlandandRussiain October 2012. The PEEX China kick off meeting was held in November 2013. During its five years in operation, the program has established a governance structure and delivered a science plan for the Northern Eurasian region. PEEX has also introduced a concept design for a modelling platform and ground-based in situ observation systems for detecting land-atmosphere and ocean-atmosphere interactions. Today, PEEX has an extensive researcher’s network representing research communities coming from the Nordic countries,RussiaandChina. PEEX is currently carrying out its research activities on a project basis, but is looking for more coordinated funding bases, especially inRussiaand inChina. The near-future challenge in implementing the PEEX research agenda is to achieve a successful integration and identification of the methodological approaches of the socio-economic research to environmental sciences. Here we give insight into these issues and provide an overview on the main tasks for the upcoming years.

ONLINE INTEGRATED MODELING ON REGIONAL SCALE IN NORTH-WEST RUSSIA: EVALUATION OF AEROSOLS INFLUENCE ON METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS

In this study the aerosols influence on selected meteorological parameters during two summer 2010 periods is evaluated with focus on the North-West Russia and urban area of St. Petersburg. For that, the seamless fully online-integrated Enviro-HIRLAM model is used. The simulations are realised in short- and long-term modes for selected periods. For evaluation of aerosol influence, in addition to the control/ reference run, the runs with direct, indirect and both combined aerosol effects are performed. It was found that for the North-West Russia region, the direct aerosol effect had increased air temperature (by 1-3˚) and decreased total cloud cover (by 10-20%). The indirect effect decreased temperature (by 0.4-1˚) and increased cloud cover (by 10-20%). The combined effect was the largest territorially; and such effect both decreased temperature and cloud cover (by 1-3˚ and by 6-20%, respectively) as well as increased these (by 0.4-0.6˚ and 1020%).

The Silk Road agenda of the Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX) program

Abstract The Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road (B&R) aims at facilitating the twenty-first Century economic development of China. However, climate change, air quality and related feedbacks are affecting the successful development of the environment and societies in the B&R geographical domain. The most urgent risks related to the atmospheric system, to the land system and to hydrospheric and cryospheric processes are changing climate – air quality interactions, air pollution, changing monsoon dynamics, land degradation, and the melting of Tibetan Plateau glaciers. A framework is needed in which a science and technology-based approach has the critical mass and expertise to identify the main steps toward solutions and is capable to implement this roadmap. The Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX) program, initiated in 2012, aims to resolve science, technology and sustainability questions in the Northern Eurasian region. PEEX is now identifying its science agenda for the B&R region. One fundamental element of the PEEX research agenda is the availability of comprehensive ground-based observations together with Earth observation data. PEEX complements the recently launched international scientific program called Digital Belt and Road (DBAR). PEEX has expertise to coordinate the ground-based observations and initiate new flagship stations, while DBAR provides a big data platform on Earth observation from China and countries along the Belt and Road region. The DBAR and PEEX have joint interests and synergy expertise on monitoring on ecological environment, urbanization, cultural heritages, coastal zones, and arctic cold regions supporting the sustainable development of the Belt and Road region. In this paper we identify the research themes of the PEEX related Silk Road agenda relevant to China and give an overview of the methodological requirements and present the infrastructure requirements needed to carry out large scale research program.