Alexandra Wollum

Smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption in 187 countries, 1980-2012.

IMPORTANCE Tobacco is a leading global disease risk factor. Understanding national trends in prevalence and consumption is critical for prioritizing action and evaluating tobacco control progress. OBJECTIVE To estimate the prevalence of daily smoking by age and sex and the number of cigarettes per smoker per day for 187 countries from 1980 to 2012. DESIGN Nationally representative sources that measured tobacco use (n = 2102 country-years of data) were systematically identified. Survey data that did not report daily tobacco smoking were adjusted using the average relationship between different definitions. Age-sex-country-year observations (n = 38,315) were synthesized using spatial-temporal gaussian process regression to model prevalence estimates by age, sex, country, and year. Data on consumption of cigarettes were used to generate estimates of cigarettes per smoker per day. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Modeled age-standardized prevalence of daily tobacco smoking by age, sex, country, and year; cigarettes per smoker per day by country and year. RESULTS Global modeled age-standardized prevalence of daily tobacco smoking in the population older than 15 years decreased from 41.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 40.0%-42.6%) in 1980 to 31.1% (95% UI, 30.2%-32.0%; P < .001) in 2012 for men and from 10.6% (95% UI, 10.2%-11.1%) to 6.2% (95% UI, 6.0%-6.4%; P < .001) for women. Global modeled prevalence declined at a faster rate from 1996 to 2006 (mean annualized rate of decline, 1.7%; 95% UI, 1.5%-1.9%) compared with the subsequent period (mean annualized rate of decline, 0.9%; 95% UI, 0.5%-1.3%; P = .003). Despite the decline in modeled prevalence, the number of daily smokers increased from 721 million (95% UI, 700 million-742 million) in 1980 to 967 million (95% UI, 944 million-989 million; P < .001) in 2012. Modeled prevalence rates exhibited substantial variation across age, sex, and countries, with rates below 5% for women in some African countries to more than 55% for men in Timor-Leste and Indonesia. The number of cigarettes per smoker per day also varied widely across countries and was not correlated with modeled prevalence. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Since 1980, large reductions in the estimated prevalence of daily smoking were observed at the global level for both men and women, but because of population growth, the number of smokers increased significantly. As tobacco remains a threat to the health of the worlds population, intensified efforts to control its use are needed.

Benchmarking health system performance across states in Nigeria: a systematic analysis of levels and trends in key maternal and child health interventions and outcomes, 2000-2013

BackgroundNigeria has made notable gains in improving childhood survival but the country still accounts for a large portion of the world’s overall disease burden, particularly among women and children. To date, no systematic analyses have comprehensively assessed trends for health outcomes and interventions across states in Nigeria.MethodsWe extracted data from 19 surveys to generate estimates for 20 key maternal and child health (MCH) interventions and outcomes for 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory from 2000 to 2013. Source-specific estimates were generated for each indicator, after which a two-step statistical model was applied using a mixed-effects model followed by Gaussian process regression to produce state-level trends. National estimates were calculated by population-weighting state values.ResultsUnder-5 mortality decreased in all states from 2000 to 2013, but a large gap remained across them. Malaria intervention coverage stayed low despite increases between 2009 and 2013, largely driven by rising rates of insecticide-treated net ownership. Overall, vaccination coverage improved, with notable increases in the coverage of three-dose oral polio vaccine. Nevertheless, immunization coverage remained low for most vaccines, including measles. Coverage of other MCH interventions, such as antenatal care and skilled birth attendance, generally stagnated and even declined in many states, and the range between the lowest- and highest-performing states remained wide in 2013. Countrywide, a measure of overall intervention coverage increased from 33% in 2000 to 47% in 2013 with considerable variation across states, ranging from 21% in Sokoto to 66% in Ekiti.ConclusionsWe found that Nigeria made notable gains for a subset of MCH indicators between 2000 and 2013, but also experienced stalled progress and even declines for others. Despite progress for a subset of indicators, Nigeria’s absolute levels of intervention coverage remained quite low. As Nigeria rolls out its National Health Bill and seeks to strengthen its delivery of health services, continued monitoring of local health trends will help policymakers track successes and promptly address challenges as they arise. Subnational benchmarking ought to occur regularly in Nigeria and throughout sub-Saharan Africa to inform local decision-making and bolster health system performance.

Capacity for diagnosis and treatment of heart failure in sub-Saharan Africa

Objective Heart failure is a major cause of disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). There is an urgent need for better strategies for heart failure management in this region. However, there is little information on the capacity to diagnose and treat heart failure in SSA. We aim to provide a better understanding of the capacity to diagnose and treat heart failure in Kenya and Uganda to inform policy planning and interventions. Methods We analysed data from a nationally representative survey of health facilities in Kenya and Uganda (197 health facilities in Uganda and 143 in Kenya). We report on the availability of cardiac diagnostic technologies and select medications for heart failure (β-blockers, ACE inhibitors and furosemide). Facility-level data were analysed by country and platform type (hospital vs ambulatory facilities). Results Functional and staffed radiography, ultrasound and ECG were available in less than half of hospitals in Kenya and Uganda combined. Of the hospitals surveyed, 49% of Kenyan and 77% of Ugandan hospitals reported availability of the heart failure medication package. ACE inhibitors were only available in 51% of Kenyan and 79% of Ugandan hospitals. Almost one-third of the hospitals in each country had a stock-out of at least one of the medication classes in the prior quarter. Conclusions Few facilities in Kenya and Uganda were prepared to diagnose and manage heart failure. Medication shortages and stock-outs were common. Our findings call for increased investment in cardiac care to reduce the growing burden of heart failure.

Efficiency of Health Care Production in Low-Resource Settings: A Monte-Carlo Simulation to Compare the Performance of Data Envelopment Analysis, Stochastic Distance Functions, and an Ensemble Model

Low-resource countries can greatly benefit from even small increases in efficiency of health service provision, supporting a strong case to measure and pursue efficiency improvement in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, the knowledge base concerning efficiency measurement remains scarce for these contexts. This study shows that current estimation approaches may not be well suited to measure technical efficiency in LMICs and offers an alternative approach for efficiency measurement in these settings. We developed a simulation environment which reproduces the characteristics of health service production in LMICs, and evaluated the performance of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Stochastic Distance Function (SDF) for assessing efficiency. We found that an ensemble approach (ENS) combining efficiency estimates from a restricted version of DEA (rDEA) and restricted SDF (rSDF) is the preferable method across a range of scenarios. This is the first study to analyze efficiency measurement in a simulation setting for LMICs. Our findings aim to heighten the validity and reliability of efficiency analyses in LMICs, and thus inform policy dialogues about improving the efficiency of health service production in these settings.

Identifying gaps in the continuum of care for cardiovascular disease and diabetes in two communities in South Africa: Baseline findings from the HealthRise project

Background The HealthRise initiative seeks to implement and evaluate innovative community-based strategies for diabetes, hypertension and hypercholesterolemia along the entire continuum of care (CoC)-from awareness and diagnosis, through treatment and control. In this study, we present baseline findings from HealthRise South Africa, identifying gaps in the CoC, as well as key barriers to care for non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Methods This mixed-methods needs assessment utilized national household data, health facility surveys, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews in Umgungundlovu and Pixley ka Seme districts. Risk factor and disease prevalence were estimated from the South Africa National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Health facility surveys were conducted at 86 facilities, focusing on essential intervention, medications and standard treatment guidelines. Quantitative results are presented descriptively, and qualitative data was analyzed using a framework approach. Results 46.8% of the population in Umgungundlovu and 51.0% in Pixley ka Seme were hypertensive. Diabetes was present in 11.0% and 9.7% of the population in Umgungundlovu and Pixley ka Seme. Hypercholesterolemia was more common in Pixley ka Seme (17.3% vs. 11.1%). Women and those of Indian descent were more likely to have diabetes. More than half of the population was found to be overweight, and binge drinking, inactivity and smoking were all common. More than half of patients with hypertension were unaware of their disease status (51.6% in Pixley ka Seme and 51.3% in Umgungundlovu), while the largest gap in the diabetes CoC occurred between initiation of treatment and achieving disease control. Demand-side barriers included lack of transportation, concerns about confidentiality, perceived discrimination and long wait times. Supply-side barriers included limited availability of testing equipment, inadequate staffing, and pharmaceutical stock outs. Conclusion In this baseline assessment of two South African health districts we found high rates of undiagnosed hypercholesterolemia and hypertension, and poor control of hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, and diabetes. The HealthRise Initiative will need to address key supply- and demand-side barriers in an effort to improve important NCD outcomes.

Public knowledge of cardiovascular disease and response to acute cardiac events in three cities in China and India

Objective To inform interventions targeted towards reducing mortality from acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and sudden cardiac arrest in three megacities in China and India, a baseline assessment of public knowledge, attitudes and practices was performed. Methods A household survey, supplemented by focus group and individual interviews, was used to assess public understanding of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, AMI symptoms, cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) and automated external defibrillators (AEDs). Additionally, information was collected on emergency service utilisation and associated barriers to care. Results 5456 household surveys were completed. Hypertension was most commonly recognised among CVD risk factors in Beijing and Shanghai (68% and 67%, respectively), while behavioural risk factors were most commonly identified in Bangalore (smoking 91%; excessive alcohol consumption 64%). Chest pain/discomfort was reported by at least 60% of respondents in all cities as a symptom of AMI, but 21% of individuals in Bangalore could not name a single symptom. In Beijing, Shanghai and Bangalore, 26%, 15% and 3% of respondents were trained in CPR, respectively. Less than one-quarter of participants in all cities recognised an AED. Finally, emergency service utilisation rates were low, and many individuals expressed concern about the quality of prehospital care. Conclusions Overall, we found low to modest knowledge of CVD risk factors and AMI symptoms, infrequent CPR training and little understanding of AEDs. Interventions will need to focus on basic principles of CVD and its complications in order for patients to receive timely and appropriate care for acute cardiac events.

CAPACITY FOR HEART FAILURE DIAGNOSIS AND TREATMENT IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: ANALYSIS OF THE ACCESS, BOTTLENECKS, COSTS, AND EQUITY STUDY IN KENYA AND UGANDA

Background: Heart failure is a major cause of disease burden in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). There is an urgent need for better strategies for heart failure management in this region. However, there is little information on the capacity to diagnose and treat heart failure in SSA. Objective: To provide

Primary health care in Nigeria: a systematic subnational analysis of levels and trends in maternal and child interventions 2000–13

Abstract Background Nigeria is a large and diverse country with considerable social and economic variation, yet little is definitively known about the status of health intervention coverage and health outcomes at a subnational level. To address this knowledge gap, we developed methods to produce a comparable set of estimates that describe the trends and levels of key health indicators at the state level for all years between 2000 and 2013. Methods We first systematically sought out all data sources that measure indicators of interest. We sourced unit-level data where possible, but in some cases used published estimates. We extracted data on all-cause under-5 mortality, maternal and child health interventions, health system access, and socioeconomic factors for Nigerias 37 states from 1998 to 2013. With the exception of mortality, which we estimated using methods described elsewhere, we developed a systematic approach to generate comparable time trend estimates. First, we tested more than 100 different model specifications for each indicator, accounting for time, covariates, and space in various ways, including linear models, natural cubic spline models, and spatially linked random effects. The best model for each indicator was chosen on the basis of predictive validity in a cross-validation framework incorporating a number of potential data missingness patterns. Finally, we estimated a mean posterior function with uncertainty using Gaussian process regression. In total, we produced complete time-series estimates for 35 coverage indicators, eight outcome indicators for under-5 health including mortality, and 16 indicators of socioeconomic status for every state in Nigeria. Findings At the national level, most indicators have shown modest trends towards increased coverage of primary care interventions, concurrent with improved indicators of socioeconomic status and improved health outcomes. However, there is a great deal of variation within Nigeria. While all states saw a declining trend in under-5 mortality, we estimated a difference of 137 deaths per 1000 births between the state with the lowest level of child mortality (Edo State with 72 deaths per 1000 births) and the state with the highest level of child mortality (Zamfara with 209 deaths per 1000 births) in 2013. Results for intervention coverage were even more mixed, where some states saw trends decreasing and others increasing. For example in Kebbi state, skilled antenatal care coverage increased by 10% in the 13 year period, while Plateau saw a 15% decrease in coverage. Interpretation Although Nigeria overall has made progress in the delivery of major primary care interventions, we note substantial within-country variation in coverage and health outcomes, suggesting high levels of inequality within Nigeria. Our estimates allow health policymakers and donors to prioritise interventions in areas with the greatest need: to this end, an online, publically available data visualisation tool for our results is available. Funding Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.