Alexey Vedev

Some Quantitative Estimates of the Influence of Institutional Constraints on Economic Growth in Russia

The article contains analysis of key factors of Russias economic growth during last decade. The model of growth based on domestic demand expansion was unstable, affected by external shocks, stimulated inflation and imports. The reasons are covered in institutional factors, caused relatively low domestic production growth under demand impulses. Authors offer quantitative assessment of potential economic growth as result of institutional environment improvement.

Прогноз Развития Облигационного Рынка РФ (Forecast of Development of the Bond Market of the Russian Federation)

Russian Abstract: Объектом исследования являются долговой рынок и его отдельные сегменты - рынки федеральных и корпоративных облигаций. Актуальность материала обусловлена отсутствием в настоящее время оценок развития основных сегментов финансовых рынков - как на ближайшие годы, так и на долгосрочную перспективу. Рынок облигаций является центральным сектором национального финансового рынка, определяет стоимость денег в экономике и обеспечивает ликвидностью банковский сектор. Цель работы - подготовка средне- и долгосрочных сценариев развития облигационного рынка России, разработка балансов финансовых инструментов и проведение количественных расчетов для оценки перспектив развития облигационного рынка и его воздействие на финансовую сферу и экономику в целом до 2020г. В качестве метода исследования использовался анализ институциональных финансовых балансов России, балансов обращающихся облигаций, структуры финансовых потоков в экономике, экономико-математическое моделирование. Значимость работы состоит в возможности использования результатов исследования и сценарных расчетов для формирования стратегии построения международного финансового центра и стратегии развития финансовых рынков РФ, а также для формирования средне- и долгосрочного бюджетного плана. English Abstract: The research object is the debt market and its individual segments - federal markets and corporate bonds. Relevance of the material is due to the current lack of evaluation of development of segments of financial markets - both in the coming years, and in the long term. The bond market is the central sector of the domestic financial market and determines the cost of money in the economy and provide liquidity to the banking sector. Objective is preparation of medium- and long-term scenarios for the development of the bond market in Russia, the development of financial instruments and balances the performance of quantitative calculations to assess the prospects for the development of the bond market and its impact on the financial sector and the economy as a whole by 2020. As a research method used analysis of institutional financial balances Russia, balances outstanding bonds, the structure of financial flows in the economy, economic and mathematical modeling. Significance of the work is the ability to use the results of research and scenario calculations for developing the strategy of building an international financial center and financial market development strategy of the Russian Federation, as well as for the formation of medium-and long-term budget plan.

Проблемы Активизации Инвестиционного Процесса в Реальном Секторе и Оценка Структуры Источников Ее Финансирования (Problems of Activization the Investment Process in the Real Sector and Evaluation of the Financing Sources Structure)

Russian Abstract: В работе проведен анализ инвестиций в основной капитал предприятий экономики России с целью определения потенциала и направлений активизации инвестиционного процесса в российской экономике. Работа основывалась на комплексном анализе динамики, эффективности, источников инвестиций в основной капитал предприятий различных секторов экономики России. В работе выявлены направления эффективной активизации инвестиционного процесса в российской экономике. Для различных секторов экономики определены источники инвестиций в основной капитал, значимые для ускорения инвестиционного процесса в них. В работе формализована сформировавшаяся модель финансирования инвестиций в основной капитал предприятий секторов российской экономики. Полученные результаты являются содержательными для более глубокого понимания динамики и структуры инвестиционного процесса в российской экономике, направлений и методов его активизации, характере и потенциале роста источников инвестиций в основной капитал предприятий различных секторов экономики России. Результаты могут быть использованы при разработке мер государственной политики по стимулированию инвестиционной активности, подготовке программ и нормативных актов в данной сфере.English Abstract: The analysis of investment in fixed assets of enterprises of the Russian economy in order to identify potential areas and activization of the investment process in the Russian economy is made in this work. It is is based on a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics, efficiency, sources of investment in fixed assets of enterprises in various sectors of the Russian economy. The paper identifies areas of increased efficiency of the investment process in the Russian economy. For various economic sectors identified sources of investment in fixed assets, significant investment to accelerate the process to them. The paper formalized formed model of financing investment in fixed assets of enterprises sectors of the Russian economy. The obtained results are meaningful for a deeper understanding of the dynamics and structure of the investment process in the Russian economy, directions and methods of its activation, the nature and growth of potential of investition sources in fixed assets of enterprises in various sectors of the Russian economy. The results can be used in the development of public policies to stimulate investment activity, the preparation of programs and regulations in this area.

Current Problems in the Development of the Banking System of the Russian Federation

In 2013 the situation in the banking sector of the RF underwent major changes. On the one hand, the volume indicators of the banking sector continued to grow, although more slowly than before. However, this growth was mainly due to aggressive behaviour of the banks in the consumer lending market, despite actions by the Bank of Russia aimed at reducing the attractiveness to the banks of such loans. On the other hand, there was an increased imbalance in the banking sector related to the non-uniform distribution of liquid funds, the outflow of customers from small and medium-sized banks to larger ones (principally to banks with government participation in their capital). This last factor was strengthened by the Bank of Russia’s efforts to rehabilitate the banking sector by withdrawing the licences of a significant number of banks, including those working in the market of private deposits. Within the framework of this policy of the Bank of Russia, aimed at reducing the number of banks and terminating the activities of any banks violating prudential standards, one should note the necessity for a more integrated approach to the reform of the sector, including measures aimed at increasing capitalisation, and the formation of an institute of systemically important banks with a reduction in the proportion of banks with government participation.

Development of the Banking Sector in Russia in 2011

The financial sphere of Russia was the first sector of the national economy which was affected by the global economic crisis of 2008. Financial markets were hit first and then the banking sector experienced the liquidity problem to be followed by a full-scale economic crisis in Russia. Early in 2011, all the factors pointed to the fact that the banking sector overcame the crisis, and it seemed the upward development began. The banking sector had at its disposal huge available resources for expansion of lending to the non-financial sector.