Sergei Germanovich Sinelnikov-Murylev

Budget Policy and Economic Growth

This article examines the relationship between government budgetary policy and the pursuit of accelerated economic growth. The authors review the academic debate over long-term economic growth and associated short-term fluctuations and conclude that Russian budgetary intended to smooth fluctuations in economic activity are of limited effect and that there are no opportunities for increasing public expenditure in the medium and long-term. For these reasons, the structure of expenditures must be changed and budgetary institutions must be transformed with a view to creating the preconditions for economic growth in the long-term.

Macroeconomic Preconditions of the Realization of a New Growth Model

The model of the Russian economy that was formed in the 2000s does not match a new stable growth path, though it helped to calmly overcome the crisis of 2008 and 2009. The state needs to provide stability in the fields under its direct control, i.e. the budgetary and monetary policies. In the budgetary policy we consider the advantages and drawbacks of a “New Budget Rule”, which is based on the long-term average price of oil. In the monetary sphere, we vote for a policy of transition to inflation targeting and prioritizing low inflation against the other goals of the monetary authorities

On the Financial Reform in Russia's Higher Education

The article deals with higher education reform in Russia. Special attention is paid to the innovations after the Federal law No 83 was adopted (2010). The authors analyze whether the reforms lead to financial self-dependence of universities, whether they do create a more competitive environment (which promotes a better education), and how the normative per capita financing affects the higher education system. Analysis of the first reform steps shows: the results are contradictory, many applied methods do not lead to the desired effect. The main obstacles are other institutions: first of all the system of higher education institutions accreditation and licensing. For further efficiency growth of higher education political (administrative) methods are needed. Only after application of administrative methods the economic methods will work properly. During the reforms it is also necessary to account for the social situation in the country.

On Standards of Budget Funding and Adjusting the Fees in State Universities

The paper analyzes the implications of the financial regulations implementing a state order (standards of budget financing based on one student) in the higher education system and the use of them to regulate fees in the universities. It is demonstrated that the establishment of standards in the field of budgetary financing (field of study) does not allow to pay attention to differences in historical property complexes, schools, differences in socio-economic position of the Russian Federation where universities are located affecting the wages of faculty in relation to the average for the economy of the region, raises the question of the adequacy of the state accreditation of higher education institutions. Purely economic approach in the allocation of budget funds obscures difficult political decisions on restructuring the higher education network: the elimination of schools that do not meet the requirements for licensing and accreditation of universities, uniting weak with strong ones, opening of new schools on the basis of material liquidation, the implementation of programs to support the weak, but necessary institutions, replacing weak management in universities, etc. Accordingly, the regulation of fees would have a negative economic and social consequences.

The Global Market for Energy Sources and the Pace of Economic Growth in Russia

In the paper the authors examine not cyclic fluctuations in the growth rate of Russia’s GDP but fluctuations associated with changes in world oil prices

Modernization or Conservation: The Role of Export Duty on Crude Oil and Petroleum Products

This paper deals with the analysis of the consequences of the abolition of export duties on crude oil and petroleum products as a necessary measure to create incentives to improve energy efficiency of the Russian economy and the elimination of underdevelopment caused by the unprecedented long-term subsidies to inefficient Russian oil refining. The authors consider three possible scenarios for the abolition of export duties on crude oil and domestic market and the conservation of tax revenues at a constant level.

Анализ Региональной Дифференциации Инфляции (Analysis of the Regional Differentiation of Inflation)

Russian Abstract: В работе проведено исследование факторов дифференциации региональных уровней цен и темпов инфляции в разрезе субъектов РФ. Закон единой цены на отдельные товары в российских регионах выполняется для группы товаров, которую можно условно назвать однородной: их качество и функциональные свойства не отличаются между регионами. Для 70% рассмотренных товаров гипотеза единой цены не подтвердилась. Масштабы ценовых различий в российских регионах сокращаются, но по-прежнему существенны. В 2015 г. стоимость потребительской корзины в самом дешевом и самом дорогом регионе отличалась примерно в 2,5 раза. Причины пространственных различий цен в регионах: уровень доходов на душу населения и степень удаленности региона от всех остальных. Национальные факторы, выделенные на основе макроэкономических показателей, объясняют примерно 53% вариации региональных темпов инфляции во времени в 1996-2015 гг. English Abstract: The paper studied the factors of regional differentiation of price levels and inflation in the Russian regions. The law of one price for certain goods in the Russian regions is true for a group of products that can be called homogeneous: their quality and functional properties do not differ between regions. For 70% goods considered the hypothesis of one price was rejected. The extent of price differences in the Russian regions are declining, but still remain significant. In 2015, the cost of living in the cheapest and most expensive region differed 2.5 times. The reasons for price differences in the Russian regions include the level of per capita income and the degree of remoteness of the region from the rest. Domestic factors, determined on the basis of macroeconomic indicators, explained about 53% of the variation of the regional rate of inflation in 1996-2015.

Forming Sources for a Long-run Growth: How to Understand?

The paper analyzes the inconsequence and problems of Russian economic policy to accelerate economic growth. Authors consider three components of growth rate (potential, Russian and world business cycles) and conclude that in order to pursue an effective economic policy to accelerate growth, it has to be addressed to the potential (long-run) growth component. The main ingredients of this policy are the government spending restructuring and budget institutions reform, labor and capital markets reform, productivity growth.

Current Problems in the Development of the Banking System of the Russian Federation

In 2013 the situation in the banking sector of the RF underwent major changes. On the one hand, the volume indicators of the banking sector continued to grow, although more slowly than before. However, this growth was mainly due to aggressive behaviour of the banks in the consumer lending market, despite actions by the Bank of Russia aimed at reducing the attractiveness to the banks of such loans. On the other hand, there was an increased imbalance in the banking sector related to the non-uniform distribution of liquid funds, the outflow of customers from small and medium-sized banks to larger ones (principally to banks with government participation in their capital). This last factor was strengthened by the Bank of Russia’s efforts to rehabilitate the banking sector by withdrawing the licences of a significant number of banks, including those working in the market of private deposits. Within the framework of this policy of the Bank of Russia, aimed at reducing the number of banks and terminating the activities of any banks violating prudential standards, one should note the necessity for a more integrated approach to the reform of the sector, including measures aimed at increasing capitalisation, and the formation of an institute of systemically important banks with a reduction in the proportion of banks with government participation.

Quality of the Administration of Value-Added Tax in OECD Countries and Russia

This paper presents an analysis of the quality of VAT administration in OECD countries and Russia. Econometric analysis of the factors which influence the quality of VAT administration, demonstrate a positive effect of the level of institutional development on the efficiency of tax collection. However this tendency takes place only when there are no additional tax exemptions being implemented alongside the economic development where ex-emptions, in addition to causing a direct loss, complicate the taxation system and lower the quality of its administration