Alistair W. Stott

Modelling and costing BVD outbreaks in beef herds

Results from an epidemiological model of an outbreak of Bovine Viral Diarrhoea (BVD) within a Scottish beef suckler herd are presented. These results concurred with field observations and encouraged us to fulfill the objective of providing an estimate of losses due to BVD to assist decision makers. Using the output from the model, estimates were made of losses associated with the outbreak. Without taking into account any financial premiums associated with disease-free status, the estimate of pound 37 (58) mean loss per cow per annum suggests that health schemes and vaccination should be of immediate financial interest to farmers and veterinary advisors.

Financial incentive to control paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) on dairy farms in the United Kingdom

This paper estimates the financial incentive to control paratuberculosis on dairy farms by establishing the level of expenditure that would minimise the total cost of the disease (output losses plus control expenditure). Given the late onset of the clinical signs and the lack of treatments, control was focused on minimising the financial impact of paratuberculosis by adjusting the dairy cow replacement policy. The optimum replacement policies for disease-free herds and infected herds were compared by using dynamic programming. At the standard settings, the disease justified adjusting the culling policy; under constant bioeconomic assumptions, it reduced the expected annuity from milk production under the optimal replacement policy by about 10 per cent (£27 per cow annually), a considerably lower figure than for other major endemic diseases that affect dairy cows in the UK. The effect was even less at lower milk prices, suggesting that there is at present little incentive for dairy farmers to put more resources into controlling the disease. However, the incentive could be increased if more information were available about how best to manage the disease under specific farm circumstances. Any effect that paratuberculosis may have on the future demand for milk and hence on milk prices would also be an important consideration.

Predicted costs and benefits of eradicating BVDV from Ireland

Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) causes an economically important endemic disease (BVD) of cattle in Ireland and worldwide. Systematic eradication by detection and removal of infectious (BVDV carrier) cattle has been successful in several regions. We therefore assessed the benefits (disease losses avoided) and costs (testing and culling regime) of a potential eradication programme in Ireland. Published bio-economic models of BVDV spread in beef suckler herds and dairy herds were adapted to estimate potential benefits of eradication in Ireland. A simple model of BVDV spread in beef finisher herds was devised to estimate the benefits of eradication in this sector. A six year eradication programme consisting of 5 inter-related virological and serological testing programmes is outlined and costed. We found that the annualised benefits of BVDV eradication in Ireland exceeded the costs by a factor of 5 in the beef suckler sector and a factor of 14 in the dairy sector. Corresponding payback periods were 1.2 and 0.5 years respectively. These results highlight the significant economic impact of BVDV on the Irish cattle industry and suggest a clear economic benefit to eradication using the proposed approach. This type of cost-benefit analysis is considered an essential prerequisite prior to undertaking an eradication campaign of this magnitude.

Evaluation of producer and consumer benefits resulting from eradication of bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) in Scotland, United Kingdom

In this paper we evaluated the distributional effects on actors in the milk market of a hypothetical programme to eradicate bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) from the Scottish dairy herd. With this in mind, we applied an economic welfare methodology which utilizes data on price, on output quantity, on elasticities of supply and demand and on simulated cost and yield effects of an eradication programme. Our analysis is based on Markov-chain Monte Carlo simulation of BVD spread in the dairy herd. We found that consequent upon the eradication of the disease milk yield per cow increased for all herd sizes in Scotland whereas milk price received by farmers fell. Consequently, milk consumers gained around pound11 million in discounted economic surplus and producers with infected herds gained around pound39 million whereas producers with un-infected herds lost around pound2 million in discounted surplus. On balance, however, the eradication programme generated around pound 47 million in discounted economic gain for Scotland. We found that the results are sensitive to changes in yield gains made by owners of the infected herd.

Modelling the effects of previous infection and re-infection on the costs of bovine viral diarrhoea outbreaks in beef herds

A previously published model was re-employed to examine the potential impact of different epidemiological circumstances on output losses due to bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) infection in typical British hill cow-calf enterprises. The average annuity equivalent of unchecked losses from 100 simulated 10-year disease scenarios ranged from almost pound0/cow to approximately pound40/cow. Significant differences were found under certain circumstances, depending on the initial disease status of the herd, the initial source of virus, the probability and source of further infection, the probability of virus transmission within the herd and herd size. For naïve herds, losses depended only on the risk of incursion. In most other circumstances, the losses could be mitigated if the annual risk of incursion was <0.3 and risk of within herd transmission was extremely low. Greater understanding of the interaction between these risk factors and management actions are required so that total costs of BVDV infection can be minimised under different circumstances.

Systems approaches to animal disease surveillance and resource allocation: methodological frameworks for behavioral analysis.

While demands for animal disease surveillance systems are growing, there has been little applied research that has examined the interactions between resource allocation, cost-effectiveness, and behavioral considerations of actors throughout the livestock supply chain in a surveillance system context. These interactions are important as feedbacks between surveillance decisions and disease evolution may be modulated by their contextual drivers, influencing the cost-effectiveness of a given surveillance system. This paper identifies a number of key behavioral aspects involved in animal health surveillance systems and reviews some novel methodologies for their analysis. A generic framework for analysis is discussed, with exemplar results provided to demonstrate the utility of such an approach in guiding better disease control and surveillance decisions.

Interactions between profit and welfare on extensive sheep farms

Extensive sheep farming systems make an important contribution to socio-economic well-being and the ‘ecosystem services’ that flow from large areas of the UK and elsewhere. They are therefore subject to much policy intervention. However, the animal welfare implications of such interventions and their economic drivers are rarely considered. Under Defra project AW1024 (a further study to assess the interaction between economics, husbandry and animal welfare in large, extensively managed sheep flocks) we therefore assessed the interaction between profit and animal welfare on extensive sheep farms. A detailed inventory of resources, resource deployment and technical performance was constructed for 20 commercial extensive sheep farms in Great Britain (equal numbers from the Scottish Highlands, Cumbria, Peak District and mid-Wales). Farms were drawn from focus groups in these regions where participative research with farmers added further information. These data were summarised and presented to a panel of 12 experts for welfare assessment. We used two welfare assessment methods one drawn from animal welfare science (‘needs’ based) the other from management science (Service Quality Modelling). The methods gave complementary results. The inventory data were also used to build a linear programme (LP) model of sheep, labour and feed-resource management monthby-month on each farm throughout the farming year. By setting the LP to adjust farm management to maximise gross margin under each farm’s circumstances we had an objective way to explore resource allocations, their constraints and welfare implications under alternative policy response scenarios. Regression of indicators of extensification (labour per ewe, in-bye land per ewe, hill area per ewe and lambs weaned per ewe) on overall welfare score explained 0.66 of variation with labour and lambs weaned per ewe both positive coefficients. Neither gross margin nor flock size were correlated with welfare score. Gross margin was also uncorrelated with these indicators of extensification with the exception of labour/ewe, which was negatively correlated with flock size and hence with gross margin. These results suggest animal welfare is best served by reduced extensification while greater profits are found in flock expansion with reduced labour input per ewe and no increase in other inputs or in productivity. Such potential conflicts should be considered as policy adjusts to meet the requirements for sustainable land use in the hills and uplands.

Impacts of greening measures and flat rate regional payments of the Common Agricultural Policy on Scottish beef and sheep farms

The latest Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reforms could bring substantial changes to Scottish farming communities. Two major components of this reform package, an introduction of environmental measures into the Pillar 1 payments and a move away from historical farm payments towards regionalized area payments, would have a significant effect on altering existing support structures for Scottish farmers, as it would for similar farm types elsewhere in Europe where historic payments are used. An optimizing farm-level model was developed to explore how Scottish beef and sheep farms might be affected by the greening and flat rate payments under the current CAP reforms. Nine different types of beef and sheep farms were identified and detailed biophysical and financial farm-level data for these farm types were used to parameterize the model. Results showed that the greening measures of the CAP did not have much impact on net margins of most of the beef and sheep farm businesses, except for ‘Beef Finisher’ farm types where the net margins decreased by 3%. However, all farm types were better off adopting the greening measures than not qualifying for the greening payments through non-compliance with the measures. The move to regionalized farm payments increased the negative financial impact of greening on most of the farms but it was still substantially lower than the financial sacrifice of not adopting greening measures. Results of maximizing farm net margin, under a hypothetical assumption of excluding farm payments, showed that in most of the mixed (sheep and cattle) and beef suckler cattle farms the optimum stock numbers predicted by the model were lower than actual figures on farm. When the regionalized support payments were allocated to each farm, the proportion of the mixed farms that would increase their stock numbers increased whereas this proportion decreased for beef suckler farms and no impact was predicted in sheep farms. Also under the regionalized support payments, improvements in profitability were found in mixed farms and sheep farms. Some of the specialized beef suckler farms also returned a profit when CAP support was added.

Combining models to examine the financial impact of infertility caused by bovine viral diarrhoea in Scottish beef suckler herds

In beef suckler herds, reproductive failure is a major cause of financial loss during a bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) outbreak due to reduction in the numbers of calves, increased calving spread and the financial implications of dealing with infertile cows. These losses may be hidden and/or not fully attributed to BVD. A model of herd dynamics was built and combined with an epidemiological model to encapsulate the disruptions to reproduction that BVD may cause in beef suckler herds and to estimate the associated financial consequences of such disruptions. Results from the model suggest that the average losses associated with BVD in Scottish beef suckler herds via impaired reproduction alone may vary between £43 and £22/cow/year during the course of a BVD epidemic. These results indicate that an outbreak can be costly and these losses may be hidden by the use of low risk management practices such as a long breeding season, not only in herds with no evidence of antibodies but also in herds where there are some antibody positive (immune) animals.

Working at the science-policy interface

THE veterinary and scientific knowledge base for animal health is evolving rapidly, in line with improving technologies and faster access to better quality data. In parallel, there is an increasing public demand for the rapid translation of that knowledge into transparent, robust, evidence-based animal health policies. The translation of scientific research into policy or practice has been occurring with increasing intensity over recent years, but this has not always been considered unequivocally successful. Both the BSE crisis in the 1990s and the foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in 2001 have taught us that, without transparent, effective and explicit communication channels established between scientists, policymakers and individuals, there may be an irreparable erosion of public confidence in our animal health and food safety infrastructures. The Scudamore Review (Scudamore and Ross 2008), published after the 2007 FMD outbreak, highlighted the importance of these existing links between policymakers and scientists and rapid government access to such expertise in the face of an animal disease emergency. In 2006, the EPIC consortium (Epidemiology, Population Health and Infectious Disease Control) was established in Scotland, and since 2011, it has been funded by the Scottish Government as a Centre of Expertise (EPIC 2013). Within the EPIC model, the role of knowledge brokers has been explicitly included to facilitate the coordination and communication of information exchange and translation across the science-policy interface. Routine presence of these EPIC scientists in national Government offices and at national stakeholder meetings has resulted in increased recognition of knowledge brokers within the agricultural sector and has provided opportunities to develop trusted relationships and expertise outwith disease outbreaks. This has undoubtedly improved our ability to contribute evidence to inform emerging animal health policy priorities in Scotland. Even though it is clear that not all scientists or academic institutions place the same importance on …