Alvaro Moreno

Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe

Quantitative estimates of the economic damages of climate change usually are based on aggregate relationships linking average temperature change to loss in gross domestic product (GDP). However, there is a clear need for further detail in the regional and sectoral dimensions of impact assessments to design and prioritize adaptation strategies. New developments in regional climate modeling and physical-impact modeling in Europe allow a better exploration of those dimensions. This article quantifies the potential consequences of climate change in Europe in four market impact categories (agriculture, river floods, coastal areas, and tourism) and one nonmarket impact (human health). The methodology integrates a set of coherent, high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modeling framework. We find that if the climate of the 2080s were to occur today, the annual loss in household welfare in the European Union (EU) resulting from the four market impacts would range between 0.2–1%. If the welfare loss is assumed to be constant over time, climate change may halve the EUs annual welfare growth. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and a higher rise in sea level result in more severe economic damage. However, the results show that there are large variations across European regions. Southern Europe, the British Isles, and Central Europe North appear most sensitive to climate change. Northern Europe, on the other hand, is the only region with net economic benefits, driven mainly by the positive effects on agriculture. Coastal systems, agriculture, and river flooding are the most important of the four market impacts assessed.

Climate Change and Tourist Comfort on Europe's Beaches in Summer: A Reassessment

Major impacts of climate change have been projected for tourism in Europe. Typically, these projections took general tourism activities such as sight-seeing and their climate requirements as their point of reference. The purpose of this study is to reassess the impact of climate change, by looking specifically at beach tourism in summer, a crucial market segment in Europe and more specifically in the Mediterranean. As beach tourism requires relatively high temperatures, relatively modest shifts in attractiveness are found. With respect to climate, the Mediterranean is likely to remain Europes prime region for summer-time beach tourism for at least the next 50 years. Coastal managers in Mediterranean destinations are advised to focus some of their attention on other climate change impacts such as sea-level rise or water availability, and include environmental quality and diversification of activities in their deliberations. In non-Mediterranean regions, a promising strategy may be to focus on short- and medium-distance visitors who can take advantage of the new opportunities for beach tourism, and to explore the merits of seasonal climate forecasting.

Climate change impacts in Europe. Final report of the PESETA research project

The PESETA research project integrates a set of high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modelling framework to quantify the impacts of climate change on vulnerable aspects of Europe. Four market impact categories are considered (agriculture, river floods, coastal systems, and tourism) and one non-market category (human health). Considering the market impacts, without public adaptation and if the climate of the 2080s occurred today, the EU annual welfare loss would be in the range of 0.2% to 1%, depending on the climate scenario. However, there is large variation across different climate futures, EU regions and impact categories. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and higher sea level rise result in more severe economic damage for the EU. Southern Europe, the British Isles and Central Europe North appear to be the most sensitive regions to climate change. Northern Europe is the only region with net economic benefits, mainly driven by the positive effects in agriculture. Concerning the contribution to the overall effects, coastal systems, agriculture and river flooding are the most important ones.

Linking beach recreation to weather conditions: a case study in Zandvoort, Netherlands.

Beach recreation is one of the most weather-sensitive leisure activities. However, there is a lack of scientific knowledge about how the different weather/climate variables influence beach visitation levels, and the role of other factors such as the hour of the day or the day of the week. This study, carried out during the summer of 2006, uses webcams in combination with real-time weather data as an innovative approach to study the relationship between weather and beach use in Zandvoort, a seaside town in The Netherlands. Over a period of 6 weeks, images were taken hourly and for every day, and then compared to the specific weather conditions from a nearby weather station to assess the relationship between beach visitation and atmospheric conditions. Precipitation has an overriding effect over other weather variables while high temperatures lead to higher beach visitation. These results indicate that webcam-based research is a promising field that can provide important information for coastal planning and climate change research.

Costing the impact of climate change on tourism in Europe: results of the PESETA project

Climate change might lead to large shifts in tourist flows, with large economic implications. This article simulates the effect of future climate change by the 2080s on outdoor international tourism expenditure within Europe. The assessment is based on the statistical relationship between bed nights and a climate-related index of human comfort, after accounting for other determinants of bed nights such as income and prices. It is concluded that climate change could have significant impacts on the regional distribution of the physical resources supporting tourism in Europe. For example, in summer, Southern Europe could experience climate conditions that are less favourable to tourism than the current climate, while countries in the North could enjoy better conditions. The economic effects of these changes are likely to be sizeable, albeit difficult to assess. Crucially, they are shown to depend on tourists’ temporal flexibility with respect to holiday planning. The greater the prominence of institutional rigidities such as school holidays, the larger the differences between winning and losing regions in terms of economic impact.

Impacts of climate change in tourism in Europe. PESETA-Tourism study

This document contains the results of the physical impact assessment for tourism within the context of the PESETA project. Tourism is a multi-billion euro industry that is highly dependent on climate resources. Climate change may provoke shifts in tourist flows, with large economic implications. The report details the methodology applied and data used for the physical impact assessment for light outdoor activities and for winter sports. For the first category, the focus is on thermal conditions, for the second category on the availability of snow. The assessment shows that climate change is projected to have significant impacts on the physical resources supporting tourism in Europe. In the mountainous regions, snow reliability is very likely to decrease further, putting ski resorts at lower altitudes at risk. In summer, southern Europe will experience climatic conditions that are less favorable to tourism than the current climate. At the same time, countries in the North, which are the countries of origin of many of the current visitors of the Mediterranean, will enjoy better conditions in summer, as well as a longer season with good weather. In particular in southern Europe, the worsening situation resulting from deteriorating thermal conditions is further aggravated by increasing water shortages. Peak demand from tourism coincides with peak demand from agriculture, residential areas, the energy sector and nature. It also coincides with the summer dip in water supply, which will very likely be deepened by climate change.

The place of tourism in the IPCC fourth assessment report: a review.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently published its fourth assessment report (AR4), representing the current state of knowledge about the causes and impacts of climate change as well as possible options for adaptation and mitigation. This article reviews the place of tourism in the AR4. Clearly, tourism has been given more space in comparison to the previous report. Nevertheless, substantial regional imbalances in available knowledge are revealed, as well as a virtual absence of information about the contribution of tourism to climate change. The article ends with a discussion of several issues that demand a priority position for tourism on the research agenda for the coming years.