Bas Amelung

Implications of Global Climate Change for Tourism Flows and Seasonality

Tourism is a climate-dependent industry, and many destinations owe their popularity to their pleasant climates during traditional holiday seasons. This article explores the potential implications of climate change for global tourism, with special emphasis on seasonality. Combination of two climate change scenarios with the Tourism Climatic Index reveals that the locations of climatically ideal tourism conditions are likely to shift poleward under projected climate change. Whereas destinations such as the Mediterranean may see shifts in their peak seasons from summer months to current shoulder periods, regions in higher latitudes are likely to experience a lengthening of their summer seasons. The effects of these changes will depend greatly on the flexibility demonstrated by institutions and tourists as they react to climate change, with substantial implications for both spatial and temporal redistribution of tourism activities. The reader is referred to http://www.carrs.msu.edu/Main/People/faculty%20bios/extra/nicho210- journal.pdf to view the full series of color maps accompanying these analyses.

Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe

Quantitative estimates of the economic damages of climate change usually are based on aggregate relationships linking average temperature change to loss in gross domestic product (GDP). However, there is a clear need for further detail in the regional and sectoral dimensions of impact assessments to design and prioritize adaptation strategies. New developments in regional climate modeling and physical-impact modeling in Europe allow a better exploration of those dimensions. This article quantifies the potential consequences of climate change in Europe in four market impact categories (agriculture, river floods, coastal areas, and tourism) and one nonmarket impact (human health). The methodology integrates a set of coherent, high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modeling framework. We find that if the climate of the 2080s were to occur today, the annual loss in household welfare in the European Union (EU) resulting from the four market impacts would range between 0.2–1%. If the welfare loss is assumed to be constant over time, climate change may halve the EUs annual welfare growth. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and a higher rise in sea level result in more severe economic damage. However, the results show that there are large variations across European regions. Southern Europe, the British Isles, and Central Europe North appear most sensitive to climate change. Northern Europe, on the other hand, is the only region with net economic benefits, driven mainly by the positive effects on agriculture. Coastal systems, agriculture, and river flooding are the most important of the four market impacts assessed.

Mediterranean tourism: exploring the future with the Tourism Climatic Index.

This paper examines future climate change scenarios for the Mediterranean region using the Tourism Climatic Index. Currently, an estimated 100 million tourists visit the Mediterranean region annually, largely because of its favourable climate. Experiments with climate change scenarios suggest likely changes, with the Mediterranean becoming too hot in summer, with northern Europe having a more attractive climate, and with the Mediterranean becoming a more pleasant destination in spring and autumn. These spatial and temporal changes in climatic attractiveness could have major impacts on the sustainability of tourism development. Preliminary results for the case study of the Balearic Islands suggest that changes are likely to be detrimental from an economic and social point of view, and neutral or favourable from a resource management and biodiversity perspective.

Physiological Equivalent Temperature as Indicator for Impacts of Climate Change on Thermal Comfort of Humans

Using the measure of Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) it is analysed how changes in the thermal environment can affect human well-being. Historical data used in this study have been assembled for the normal climate period 1961–1990 (CNTRL). Future conditions are calculated based on the period 2071–2100, for which simulated datasets are available, based on GCMs integrated with scenarios. The scenarios used here are the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) second report on emission scenarios (SRES) A1F and B1A, which represent a worst and a moderate climate case. The results are shown for December, January and February (DJF, winter months in the northern hemisphere), and for June, July and August (JJA, summer months in the northern hemisphere). Areas with extreme and uncomfortable thermal conditions and heat stress affections can be identified. In many regions of the world, e.g. the Mediterranean and North America, changes in thermal perception by humans are shown to outpace changes in air temperature. This has major implications for the assessment of the health effects of climate change. It is highly likely that the effects of climate change on human health and well-being have been underestimated in past studies, because these were based on air temperature changes rather than changes in PET, which describes the effects of meteorological and thermo-physiological parameters.

Climate Change and Tourist Comfort on Europe's Beaches in Summer: A Reassessment

Major impacts of climate change have been projected for tourism in Europe. Typically, these projections took general tourism activities such as sight-seeing and their climate requirements as their point of reference. The purpose of this study is to reassess the impact of climate change, by looking specifically at beach tourism in summer, a crucial market segment in Europe and more specifically in the Mediterranean. As beach tourism requires relatively high temperatures, relatively modest shifts in attractiveness are found. With respect to climate, the Mediterranean is likely to remain Europes prime region for summer-time beach tourism for at least the next 50 years. Coastal managers in Mediterranean destinations are advised to focus some of their attention on other climate change impacts such as sea-level rise or water availability, and include environmental quality and diversification of activities in their deliberations. In non-Mediterranean regions, a promising strategy may be to focus on short- and medium-distance visitors who can take advantage of the new opportunities for beach tourism, and to explore the merits of seasonal climate forecasting.

Climate change impacts in Europe. Final report of the PESETA research project

The PESETA research project integrates a set of high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modelling framework to quantify the impacts of climate change on vulnerable aspects of Europe. Four market impact categories are considered (agriculture, river floods, coastal systems, and tourism) and one non-market category (human health). Considering the market impacts, without public adaptation and if the climate of the 2080s occurred today, the EU annual welfare loss would be in the range of 0.2% to 1%, depending on the climate scenario. However, there is large variation across different climate futures, EU regions and impact categories. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and higher sea level rise result in more severe economic damage for the EU. Southern Europe, the British Isles and Central Europe North appear to be the most sensitive regions to climate change. Northern Europe is the only region with net economic benefits, mainly driven by the positive effects in agriculture. Concerning the contribution to the overall effects, coastal systems, agriculture and river flooding are the most important ones.

Linking beach recreation to weather conditions: a case study in Zandvoort, Netherlands.

Beach recreation is one of the most weather-sensitive leisure activities. However, there is a lack of scientific knowledge about how the different weather/climate variables influence beach visitation levels, and the role of other factors such as the hour of the day or the day of the week. This study, carried out during the summer of 2006, uses webcams in combination with real-time weather data as an innovative approach to study the relationship between weather and beach use in Zandvoort, a seaside town in The Netherlands. Over a period of 6 weeks, images were taken hourly and for every day, and then compared to the specific weather conditions from a nearby weather station to assess the relationship between beach visitation and atmospheric conditions. Precipitation has an overriding effect over other weather variables while high temperatures lead to higher beach visitation. These results indicate that webcam-based research is a promising field that can provide important information for coastal planning and climate change research.

Heading into Uncharted Territory? Exploring the Institutional Robustness of Self-Regulation in the Antarctic Tourism Sector

This paper analyses the main strengths and weaknesses of self-regulation in the Antarctic tourism sector. Ostroms theory of collective action and especially the design principles for robust management of common pool resources provide the framework for this analysis. The paper notes the rapid growth and diversification of tourism in Antarctica over the past two decades. It examines why formal tourism legislation has been limited because of the complex governance structure in Antarctica. It describes the self-regulation of tourism management that occurs through the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators (IAATO). The success of IAATO is attributed to the high degree of organisation in the sector, largely because of the perceived benefits of membership. Continued incentives for self-organisation are needed but changing circumstances may lead tour operators to believe that IAATO membership is no longer advantageous. The paper shows that, under current conditions, the Antarctic tourism self-regulatory regime is a robust institution. However, with increasing numbers of tourists and operators the institutional structure may be weakened in the future.

Costing the impact of climate change on tourism in Europe: results of the PESETA project

Climate change might lead to large shifts in tourist flows, with large economic implications. This article simulates the effect of future climate change by the 2080s on outdoor international tourism expenditure within Europe. The assessment is based on the statistical relationship between bed nights and a climate-related index of human comfort, after accounting for other determinants of bed nights such as income and prices. It is concluded that climate change could have significant impacts on the regional distribution of the physical resources supporting tourism in Europe. For example, in summer, Southern Europe could experience climate conditions that are less favourable to tourism than the current climate, while countries in the North could enjoy better conditions. The economic effects of these changes are likely to be sizeable, albeit difficult to assess. Crucially, they are shown to depend on tourists’ temporal flexibility with respect to holiday planning. The greater the prominence of institutional rigidities such as school holidays, the larger the differences between winning and losing regions in terms of economic impact.

On climate change skepticism and denial in tourism

The period leading to and immediately after the release of the IPCCs fifth series of climate change assessments saw substantial efforts by climate change denial interests to portray anthropogenic climate change (ACC) as either unproven theory or a negligible contribution to natural climate variability, including the relationship between tourism and climate change. This paper responds to those claims by stressing that the extent of scientific consensus suggests that human-induced warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Second, it responds in the context of tourism research and ACC, highlighting tourisms significant contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, as well as climate changes potential impacts on tourism at different scales. The paper exposes the tactics used in ACC denial papers to question climate change science by referring to non-peer-reviewed literature, outlier studies, and misinterpretation of research, as well as potential links to think tanks and interest groups. The paper concludes that climate change science does need to improve its communication strategies but that the world-view of some individuals and interests likely precludes acceptance. The connection between ACC and sustainability illustrates the need for debate on adaptation and mitigation strategies, but that debate needs to be grounded in scientific principles not unsupported skepticism.