Amaury de Souza

Potenciais impactos da variabilidade climática sobre a morbidade respiratória em crianças, lactentes e adultos

OBJECTIVE To determine whether climate variability influences the number of hospitalizations for respiratory diseases in infants, children, and adults in the city of Campo Grande, Brazil. METHODS We used daily data on admissions for respiratory diseases, precipitation, air temperature, humidity, and wind speed for the 2004-2008 period. We calculated the thermal comfort index, effective temperature, and effective temperature with wind speed (wind-chill or heat index) using the meteorological data obtained. Generalized linear models, with Poisson multiple regression, were used in order to predict hospitalizations for respiratory disease. RESULTS The variables studied were (collectively) found to show relatively high correlation coefficients in relation to hospital admission for pneumonia in children (R² = 68.4%), infants (R² = 71.8%), and adults (R² = 81.8%). CONCLUSIONS Our results indicate a quantitative risk for an increase in the number of hospitalizations of children, infants, and adults, according to the increase or decrease in temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind speed, and thermal comfort index in the city under study.

Modeling of Surface and Weather Effects Ozone Concentration Using Neural Networks in West Center of Brazil

The estimative of the concentration of surface ozone promotes the creation of data for planning forecasting the air quality, useful in the management of public health. The aim of this study was to develop an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to estimate the concentration of surface ozone due to climate data daily. The ANN, the Feedforward Multilayer Perceptron kind, was trained taking as reference the daily concentration of ozone measured. In the intermediate and output layers we used activation functions type tan-sigmoid and linear, respectively. The performance of the ANN developed was very good, and it can be considered as part of the set of indirect methods to estimate the concentration of surface ozone. The proposed model can be used by the government as a tool to enable the public interventional actions during the period of atmospheric stagnation, when ozone levels in the atmosphere may represent risks to public health.

Effects of irradiance on non-structural carbohydrates, growth, and hypoglycemic activity of Rhynchelytrum repens (Willd.) C.E. Hubb. (Poaceae)

Irradiance is a crucial factor in plant development. Different radiant energy levels cause different responses related to plant growth and the production and distribution of dry matter. Considering the relationship between light availability and metabolism of carbohydrates and derived compounds, the aim of this work was to assess the effects of irradiance on non-structural carbohydrate contents and composition, as well as on the hypoglycemiant activity of Rhynchelytrum repens, a pantropical grass species popularly used for diabetes treatment. Plants of R. repens growing under natural irradiance (NI) showed increased content of total soluble carbohydrate (TSC), higher fluctuations in starch content (SC) and higher number of tillers. The flowering process of these plants was preceded by an increase in sucrose. However, their water content was low when compared to that of plants cultivated under low irradiance (LI). The ratio root/aerial organs and SC showed no significant differences in plants grown under LI, although TSC increased and a lower number of tillers were observed during the experimental period. In both conditions, sucrose was the ubiquitous sugar and seemed to be involved in the flowering process. A reduction in the blood sugar level was observed through the intra-peritoneal (IP) administration of the precipitate of aqueous extracts obtained from plants growing in both conditions of light; the supernatant fraction showed no hypoglycemic effect.

Asthma and Environmental Indicators: A Time-series Study

Objective: To estimate the risk of ozone concentration and hospitalizations for asthma. Method: This is an ecological time series, which included individuals from 0 to 10 years old who lived in Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul (Brasil), from 2008 to 2010. The data on hospitalizations for asthma were obtained online from DATASUS website. Data from environment levels of ozone were obtained from Instituto de Fisica of UFMS and temperature and humidity from Centro de Monitoramento de Clima e Recursos Hidricos (CEMTEC). Gap designs were made from 0 to 6 days and analyzed by generalized additive Poisson’s regression model and its 95% confidence intervals. Results: There were 5850 admissions, presenting daily changes from 2 to 13. The relative risks and their respective confidence intervals were obtained for each parameter: ozone-RR 0.9965 (0.9467-1.0463); precipitation RR-0.9975 (0.9476-1.0474); RH RR-0.9948 (0.9450-1.0455); RR-speed winds 1.0036 (0.9535-1.0538) and RRtemperature 0.9679 (0.9195-1.0163). Conclusion: It was possible to identify association of ozone as in the same day of exposure as in the days ahead after the admissions. Thus, this study showed an association between ozone and hospitalizations for asthma in a medium-sized city.

INDICADORES AMBIENTAIS E DOENÇAS RESPIRATÓRIAS EM CRIANÇAS

Resumen pt: Investigar os efeitos causados pela poluicao atmosferica, ozonio, na morbidade por doencas respiratorias em criancas entre 2005 e 2008. Foram obtidos os ...

Modelo de Thom para o zoneamento bioclimático de Mato Grosso do Sul

The objective of this study was to evaluate the climate conditions of Mato Grosso do Sul, using the index of temperature and humidity (ITU), and present the bioclimatic mapping relating to thermal comfort. The ITU values were estimated from data of temperature and relative humidity for the period 1979 to 2008. Four intervals of ITU were used to classify human performance (ITU 84: extremely hot), and two intervals to classify the Livestock (79≤ ITU 84: emergency). We conclude that the prevailing mood is one of two alternating seasons throughout the year: hot and humid summer and dry winter with warmer temperatures, the results showed a higher risk of thermal discomfort during the period from October to April, compared to the period between May and September. The most critical period occurred between December and March. Although it was observed that with ITU values between 77.9 and 83.9, humans and animals can suffer some degree of heat stress during the hottest hours of the day, negatively affecting both.

Evaluation of Variations in Ground-Level Ozone (O3) Concentrations

ABSTRACT This article presents the results of measuring the concentrations of ground-level ozone (O3) in ambient air and meteorological parameters (atmospheric pressure, temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity during the year 2008. The measurements were performed at measuring station located near Campo Grande, away from local sources of O3. Fourier analysis, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) were used as tools for mathematical analysis of the indicated occurrence. The results of Fourier analysis indicate that not only the daily cycles but also the weekly and monthly cycles are visible in all periods as well as the 12-h cycles. The statistical analysis of the obtained data, based on PCA have shown that approximately 60% of the variance in the measured values can be described with two factors. The attempt of O3 distribution modeling, using MLRA, resulted in a linear model whose coefficient of determination was equal to R2 = 0.98. The results of the study indicate that all these methods are useful for understanding the impact of meteorological parameters on variations of ozone concentration over time.

Association between climate variables, pollutants, aerosols and hospitalizations due to asthma

Many studies have shown that climatic and pollutant variables are directly related to the increase of hospitalizations due to respiratory diseases, mainly asthma. The aim of this study was to estimate the association between exposure to climate variables, pollutants, aerosols and hospitalizations due to asthma. This ecological study used time series with daily asthma hospitalization indicators, and concentrations of pollutants, climate data and aerosols, between January 2013 and December 2013. A generalized additive model using Poisson regression was used to estimate the relative risk with a two-day lag after exposure; the unipollutant model was adjusted by the apparent temperature, a measure defined from the temperature and relative humidity of the air, and a variable was added to control the seasonality and the day of the week. As a result, the values of relative risks (RR) for hospitalizations due to asthma were: for minimum temperature RR= 0.8985; maximum humidity RR= 0.9819; wind speed RR= 0.9419; rain RR= 0.9834; ozone RR= 0.9735; aerosols (AOT) RR= 1.0078; clearness index (Kt) RR= 0.0492 and carbon monoxide RR= 1.0865 for a two-day lag. After considering the aforementioned factors, we found the values of B coefficients. Exposure to climatic variables, pollutants, aerosols and clearness index was associated with hospitalizations due to asthma, and provided subsidies for the implementation of preventive measures to decrease these outcomes.

IMPACTO DE FATORES METEOROLÓGICOS SOBRE AS CONCENTRAÇÕES DE OZÔNIO MODELADOS POR ANÁLISE DE SÉRIES TEMPORAIS E MÉTODOS ESTATÍSTICOS MULTIVARIADOS

O objetivo desta pesquisa foi de desenvolver um modelo para prever as concentracoes de ozonio em funcao das variaveis climaticas. As medidas de concentracao do ozonio foram realizadas na Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul, utilizando dados do periodo de janeiro a dezembro de 2014. As variaveis preditoras referentes ao clima (umidade relativa, velocidade do vento, chuva, aeerossois, indice de claridade, radiacao solar global e temperatura) foram cedidas pela CEMTEC-Campo Grande-MS. Foram realizadas analise de componentes principais (PCA) e analise de regressao linear multipla (MLR) aplicadas a estas series temporais. As principais relacoes observadas nestas analises foram entao usadas para obter uma equacao de regressao que liga as concentracoes de ozonio diurnas com parâmetros climaticos. O modelo desenvolvido e capaz de explicar 99% da variabilidade nas concentracoes de ozonio de superficie com um erro de 0,2%

A relação das variáveis climáticas na prevalência de infecção respiratória aguda em crianças menores de dois anos em Rondonópolis-MT, Brasil

It is estimated that approximately 30% of childhood diseases can be attributed to environmental factors and 40% involve children under the age of five years old, representing about 10% of world population. This study aimed to analyze the relationship of climate variables in the prevalence of acute respiratory infection (ARI) in children under two years old, in Rondonopolis-MT, from 1999 to 2014. It was used a cross-sectional study with a quantitative and a descriptive approach with meteorological teaching and research data from the database from the health information system. For statistical analysis, it adjusted the negative binomial model belonging to the class of generalized linear models, adopting a significance level of 5%, based on the statistical platform R. The average number of cases of ARI decreases at approximately by 7.9% per degree centigrade increase above the average air temperature and decrease about 1.65% per 1% increase over the average air relative humidity. Already, the rainfall not associated with these cases. It is the interdisciplinary team refocus practical actions to assist in the control and reduction of ARI significant numbers in primary health care, related climate issues in children.