Débora Aparecida da Silva Santos

ANÁLISE DAS VARIAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS NA OCORRÊNCIA DE DOENÇAS RESPIRATÓRIAS POR INFLUENZA EM IDOSOS NA REGIÃO METROPOLITANA DE JOÃO PESSOA – PB

This work aimed to evaluate the effects of seasonal climatic variations in the incidence of respiratory diseases by influenza (PI) in the elderly population in the region of metropolitan João Pessoa in the state of Paraíba. Generalized linear models from the linear Poisson regression to relate the dependent variable set to the records of hospitalizations for causes associated with influenza and the independent variables (rainfall, average air temperature and relative humidity) to analyze the relations established by modeling has been used. Aditionally,was applied ANOVA variance test with a significance level of 0.05 of probability to determine which independent variables is more significant. Also the residual generated by adjusting the models in order to identify the distribution that best fitted the data were analyzed. All static analysis was performed using R software. In general is possible to identify that the highest peaks of hospitalizations for PI occur in autumn and winter. Therefore, these results suggest an association between cold and hospitalizations for IP. Statistical modeling performed satisfactory for analysis of the cases of hospitalizations for IP. However, the deepening of these temporal analysis is necessary because health depends not only on environmental factors.

Association between climate variables, pollutants, aerosols and hospitalizations due to asthma

Many studies have shown that climatic and pollutant variables are directly related to the increase of hospitalizations due to respiratory diseases, mainly asthma. The aim of this study was to estimate the association between exposure to climate variables, pollutants, aerosols and hospitalizations due to asthma. This ecological study used time series with daily asthma hospitalization indicators, and concentrations of pollutants, climate data and aerosols, between January 2013 and December 2013. A generalized additive model using Poisson regression was used to estimate the relative risk with a two-day lag after exposure; the unipollutant model was adjusted by the apparent temperature, a measure defined from the temperature and relative humidity of the air, and a variable was added to control the seasonality and the day of the week. As a result, the values of relative risks (RR) for hospitalizations due to asthma were: for minimum temperature RR= 0.8985; maximum humidity RR= 0.9819; wind speed RR= 0.9419; rain RR= 0.9834; ozone RR= 0.9735; aerosols (AOT) RR= 1.0078; clearness index (Kt) RR= 0.0492 and carbon monoxide RR= 1.0865 for a two-day lag. After considering the aforementioned factors, we found the values of B coefficients. Exposure to climatic variables, pollutants, aerosols and clearness index was associated with hospitalizations due to asthma, and provided subsidies for the implementation of preventive measures to decrease these outcomes.