Amy Solomon

The global heat balance: heat transports in the atmosphere and ocean

The heat budget has been computed locally over the entire globe for each month of 1988 using compatible top-of-the-atmosphere radiation from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment combined with European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric data. The effective heat sources and sinks (diabatic heating) and effective moisture sources and sinks for the atmosphere are computed and combined to produce overall estimates of the atmospheric energy divergence and the net flux through the Earths surface. On an annual mean basis, this is directly related to the divergence of the ocean heat transport, and new computations of the ocean heat transport are made for the ocean basins. Results are presented for January and July, and the annual mean for 1988, along with a comprehensive discussion of errors. While the current results are believed to be the best available at present, there are substantial shortcomings remaining in the estimates of the atmospheric heat and moisture budgets. The issues, which are also present in all previous studies, arise from the diurnal cycle, problems with atmospheric divergence, vertical resolution, spurious mass imbalances, initialized versus uninitialized atmospheric analyses, and postprocessing to produce the atmospheric archive on pressure surfaces. Over land, additional problems arise from the complex surface topography, so that computed surface fluxes are more reliable over the oceans. The use of zonal means to compute ocean transports is shown to produce misleading results because a considerable part of the implied ocean transports is through the land. The need to compute the heat budget locally is demonstrated and results indicate lower ocean transports than in previous residual calculations which are therefore more compatible with direct ocean estimates. A Poisson equation is solved with appropriate boundary conditions of zero normal heat flux through the continental boundaries to obtain the ocean heat transport. Because of the poor observational data base, adjustments to the surface fluxes are necessary over the southern oceans. Error bars are estimated based on the large-scale spurious residuals over land of 30 W m−2 over 1000 km scales (1012 m2). In the Atlantic Ocean, a northward transport emerges at all latitudes with peak values of 1.1±0.2 PW (1 standard error) at 20 to 30°N. Comparable values are achieved in the Pacific at 20°N, so that the total is 2.1±0.3 PW. The peak southward transport is at 15 to 20°S of 1.9±0.3 PW made up of strong components from both the Pacific and Indian Oceans and with a heat flux from the Pacific into the Indian Ocean in the Indonesian throughflow. The pattern of poleward heat fluxes is suggestive of a strong role for Ekman transports in the tropical regions.

A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments

Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty.

Distinguishing the Roles of Natural and Anthropogenically Forced Decadal Climate Variability: Implications for Prediction

Abstract Given that over the course of the next 10–30 years the magnitude of natural decadal variations may rival that of anthropogenically forced climate change on regional scales, it is envisioned that initialized decadal predictions will provide important information for climate-related management and adaptation decisions. Such predictions are presently one of the grand challenges for the climate community. This requires identifying those physical phenomena—and their model equivalents—that may provide additional predictability on decadal time scales, including an assessment of the physical processes through which anthropogenic forcing may interact with or project upon natural variability. Such a physical framework is necessary to provide a consistent assessment (and insight into potential improvement) of the decadal prediction experiments planned to be assessed as part of the IPCCs Fifth Assessment Report.

Intercomparison of large‐eddy simulations of Arctic mixed‐phase clouds: Importance of ice size distribution assumptions

Large-eddy simulations of mixed-phase Arctic clouds by 11 different models are analyzed with the goal of improving understanding and model representation of processes controlling the evolution of these clouds. In a case based on observations from the Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC), it is found that ice number concentration, Ni, exerts significant influence on the cloud structure. Increasing Ni leads to a substantial reduction in liquid water path (LWP), in agreement with earlier studies. In contrast to previous intercomparison studies, all models here use the same ice particle properties (i.e., mass-size, mass-fall speed, and mass-capacitance relationships) and a common radiation parameterization. The constrained setup exposes the importance of ice particle size distributions (PSDs) in influencing cloud evolution. A clear separation in LWP and IWP predicted by models with bin and bulk microphysical treatments is documented and attributed primarily to the assumed shape of ice PSD used in bulk schemes. Compared to the bin schemes that explicitly predict the PSD, schemes assuming exponential ice PSD underestimate ice growth by vapor deposition and overestimate mass-weighted fall speed leading to an underprediction of IWP by a factor of two in the considered case. Sensitivity tests indicate LWP and IWP are much closer to the bin model simulations when a modified shape factor which is similar to that predicted by bin model simulation is used in bulk scheme. These results demonstrate the importance of representation of ice PSD in determining the partitioning of liquid and ice and the longevity of mixed-phase clouds.

Investigation of Microphysical Parameterizations of Snow and Ice in Arctic Clouds during M-PACE through Model–Observation Comparisons

In this study the Weather Research Forecast model is used with 1-km horizontal grid spacing to investigate the microphysical properties of Arctic mixed-phase stratocumulus. Intensive measurements taken during the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE) on the North Slope of Alaska, during 9‐12 October 2004, are used to verify the microphysical characteristics of the model’s simulation of mixed-phase clouds (MPCs). A series of one- and two-moment bulk microphysical cloud schemes are tested to identify how the treatment of snow and ice affects the maintenance of cloud liquid water at low temperatures. The baseline two-moment simulation results in realistic liquid water paths and in size distributions of snow reasonably similar to observations. With a one-moment simulation for which the size distribution intercept parameter for snow is fixed at values taken from the two-moment simulation, reasonable snow size distributions are again obtained but the cloud liquid water is reduced because the one-moment scheme couples the number concentration to the mixing ratio. The one-moment scheme with the constant snow intercept parameter set to a value typical of midlatitude frontal clouds results in a substantial underprediction of the liquid water path. In the simulations, the number concentration of small ice crystals is found to be underestimated by an order of magnitude. A sensitivity test with the concentration of ice particles larger than 53 mm increased to the observed value results in underprediction of the liquid water path. If ice (not snow) is the primary driver for the depletion of cloud liquid water, then the results of this study suggest that the feedbacks among ice‐snow‐cloud liquid water may be misrepresented in the model.

The Sensitivity of Springtime Arctic Mixed-Phase Stratocumulus Clouds to Surface-Layer and Cloud-Top Inversion-Layer Moisture Sources

AbstractIn this study, a series of idealized large-eddy simulations is used to understand the relative impact of cloud-top and subcloud-layer sources of moisture on the microphysical–radiative–dynamical feedbacks in an Arctic mixed-phase stratocumulus (AMPS) cloud system. This study focuses on a case derived from observations of a persistent single-layer AMPS cloud deck on 8 April 2008 during the Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign near Barrow, Alaska. Moisture and moist static energy budgets are used to examine the potential impact of ice in mixed-phase clouds, specific humidity inversions coincident with temperature inversions as a source of moisture for the cloud system, and the presence of cloud liquid water above the mixed-layer top. This study demonstrates that AMPS have remarkable insensitivity to changes in moisture source. When the overlying air is dried initially, radiative cooling and turbulent entrainment increase moisture import from the surface layer. When the surface layer is dried in...

Implications of global atmospheric spatial spectra for processing and displaying data

Abstract The information available on different scales in the atmosphere for a number of different variables is explored using the global ECMWF analyses by examining the spatial spectra at T106 resolution. In most atmospheric spectra, a low wavenumber regime can be identified that does not follow a power law and is dominated by the stationary forced part of the flow. A higher wavenumber regime, where an approximate power law does appear to hold, can also usually be found. For the rotational part of the flow in the upper troposphere, the observed spectra follow quite closely that expected for quasi-two-dimensional geostrophic turbulence between about wavenumbers 12 and 70, with a kinetic energy spectrum falling off as n−3, where n is the total spherical harmonic wavenumber. In the lower troposphere, there is more power at high wavenumbers than would be expected from geostrophic turbulence, most likely due to the influence and close proximity of the lower boundary. Changes in the global analyses since 1979 ...

Conservation of Mass in Three Dimensions in Global Analyses

Abstract For a number of reasons, conservation of mass in the global analyses on pressure coordinates is violated, yet this constraint is required for budget studies of all kinds. The imbalances arise from postprocessing the variables onto pressure surfaces, problems of dealing with the lower boundary and substituting an artificial atmosphere below ground, and diurnal pressure tendencies associated with the semidiurnal tide and the timing and distribution of observations. Methods are described and illustrated for May 1988 for adjusting the monthly mean global European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses in three dimensions on pressure surfaces so that the mass balance is achieved, but the problems are present in analyses on constant pressure surfaces from all centers. First, a correction is needed for the global mean vertical motion. Second, it is shown that a local adjustment to the horizontal divergent velocity field is needed for regions that are below ground on constant pressure surface...

A Study of the Impact of Off-Equatorial Warm Pool SST Anomalies on ENSO Cycles

Abstract Concurrent with most large El Nino events, cold sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are observed over the western Pacific warm pool region (WPWP). Observational evidence that SST anomalies that form in the off-equatorial western Pacific during El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles are forced by subsurface ocean processes equatorward of 12°N and air–sea fluxes poleward of 12°N is presented. It is demonstrated that diurnal mixing in the ocean equatorward of 12°N plays a significant role in bringing subsurface temperature anomalies to the sea surface during an El Nino event. The role of SST anomalies equatorward of 12°N in ENSO cycles is tested in the Zebiak–Cane coupled model, modified to allow for the impact of subsurface temperatures on SSTs. This coupled model successfully simulates cold SST anomalies in the off-equatorial northwestern Pacific that are observed to occur during the warm phase of ENSO and the atmospheric response to these anomalies, which is composed of both westerlies in...

Process-model simulations of cloud albedo enhancement by aerosols in the Arctic.

A cloud-resolving model is used to simulate the effectiveness of Arctic marine cloud brightening via injection of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), either through geoengineering or other increased sources of Arctic aerosols. An updated cloud microphysical scheme is employed, with prognostic CCN and cloud particle numbers in both liquid and mixed-phase marine low clouds. Injection of CCN into the marine boundary layer can delay the collapse of the boundary layer and increase low-cloud albedo. Albedo increases are stronger for pure liquid clouds than mixed-phase clouds. Liquid precipitation can be suppressed by CCN injection, whereas ice precipitation (snow) is affected less; thus, the effectiveness of brightening mixed-phase clouds is lower than for liquid-only clouds. CCN injection into a clean regime results in a greater albedo increase than injection into a polluted regime, consistent with current knowledge about aerosol–cloud interactions. Unlike previous studies investigating warm clouds, dynamical changes in circulation owing to precipitation changes are small. According to these results, which are dependent upon the representation of ice nucleation processes in the employed microphysical scheme, Arctic geoengineering is unlikely to be effective as the sole means of altering the global radiation budget but could have substantial local radiative effects.