Ana Luz Márquez

A Broad Assessment of Factors Determining Culicoides imicola Abundance: Modelling the Present and Forecasting Its Future in Climate Change Scenarios

Bluetongue (BT) is still present in Europe and the introduction of new serotypes from endemic areas in the African continent is a possible threat. Culicoides imicola remains one of the most relevant BT vectors in Spain and research on the environmental determinants driving its life cycle is key to preventing and controlling BT. Our aim was to improve our understanding of the biotic and abiotic determinants of C. imicola by modelling its present abundance, studying the spatial pattern of predicted abundance in relation to BT outbreaks, and investigating how the predicted current distribution and abundance patterns might change under future (2011–2040) scenarios of climate change according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. C. imicola abundance data from the bluetongue national surveillance programme were modelled with spatial, topoclimatic, host and soil factors. The influence of these factors was further assessed by variation partitioning procedures. The predicted abundance of C. imicola was also projected to a future period. Variation partitioning demonstrated that the pure effect of host and topoclimate factors explained a high percentage (>80%) of the variation. The pure effect of soil followed in importance in explaining the abundance of C. imicola. A close link was confirmed between C. imicola abundance and BT outbreaks. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to consider wild and domestic hosts in predictive modelling for an arthropod vector. The main findings regarding the near future show that there is no evidence to suggest that there will be an important increase in the distribution range of C. imicola; this contrasts with an expected increase in abundance in the areas where it is already present in mainland Spain. What may be expected regarding the future scenario for orbiviruses in mainland Spain, is that higher predicted C. imicola abundance may significantly change the rate of transmission of orbiviruses.

Past, present and future of wild ungulates in relation to changes in land use

In recent decades, Mediterranean landscapes have been experiencing more rapid changes in land use than usual, which have affected the ecology of the species inhabiting this biodiversity hotspot. Some studies have assessed the effect of such changes on biodiversity, but most of these were diachronic studies of population dynamics, or synchronic studies of species habitat selection, whereas few studies have simultaneously taken into account temporal changes in habitat composition and changes in species distribution. This study analysed the effects of land-use changes on the distribution of wild ungulates (Capreolus capreolus, Capra pyrenaica, Cervus elaphus and Sus scrofa). Using favourability function and Markov chain analysis combined with cellular automata, we addressed the following objectives: (i) to examine the environmental determinants of ungulate distribution in the past (1960s) and present (1990s), (ii) to model land use for 2040 to forecast future species distributions and (iii) to assess the biogeographical differences between the above-mentioned study periods (past–present and present–future). Species favourability was predicted to be more widely distributed in the present than in the past, but this increase varied across species. Areas predicted to be favourable in the present should remain stable in the future, but in addition there will be more new favourable areas not previously occupied by these species. The results are discussed from the perspective of the socio-economic relevance of wild ungulates in relation to some unfavourable areas of Mediterranean regions.

Novel association of the interleukin 2-interleukin 21 region with inflammatory bowel disease.

OBJECTIVES:Genome-wide association studies have reported the role of the interleukin (IL) 2–IL21 chromosomal region at 4q27 in several autoimmune conditions. Mice deficient in IL-2 develop a disease with clinical and histological similarity to ulcerative colitis (UC) in humans. Modest evidence of linkage with UC was tentatively proposed for the IL2 gene more than a decade ago. Therefore, we decide to investigate the association of polymorphisms in the IL-2 axis (IL2, IL2RA, and IL2RB genes) with inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs).METHODS:Seven hundred and twenty-eight white Spanish unrelated IBD patients (356 Crohns disease (CD) and 372 UC) and 549 ethnically matched controls were included in a case–control study. In addition, a Spanish replication cohort with 562 CD and 430 UC patients and 1,310 controls were analyzed. Eight single-nucleotide polymorphisms previously associated with different autoimmune diseases were analyzed using TaqMan chemistry.RESULTS:The IL2-rs6822844 polymorphism modified CD predisposition (P=0.002; odds ratio, OR (95% confidence interval, CI)=0.61 (0.44–0.84)); this was replicated in the other Spanish cohort, resulting in a strong protective effect of the minor allele in the merged samples (P=0.0002; OR (95% CI)=0.70 (0.58–0.85)). A similar effect of rs6822844 was detected for UC. Another marker, rs11938795, also showed evidence of an association with CD (P=0.006; OR (95% CI)=0.73 (0.58–0.92)).CONCLUSIONS:Polymorphisms within the IL2–IL21 linkage disequilibrium (LD) block show a novel association with IBD, this is concordant with suggestive previous results of whole genome analyses in CD and type 1 diabetes. Our data agree with the effect previously observed for other conditions and delineate a shared underlying mechanism.

Long-Term Changes in Game Species Over a Long Period of Transformation in the Iberian Mediterranean Landscape

Agricultural change has transformed large areas of traditional farming landscapes, leading to important changes in the species community assemblages in most European countries. We suspect that the drastic changes in land-use that have occurred in Andalusia (southern Spain) over recent decades, may have affected the distribution and abundance of game species in this region. This article compares the distribution of the main game species in Andalusia during the 1960s and 1990s, using data from maps available from the Mainland Spanish Fish, Game and National Parks Service and from recent datasets on hunting yield distributions, respectively. Big-game and small-game species were significantly segregated in southern Spain during the 1990s, as two clearly independent chorotypes (groups of species whose abundances are similarly distributed) were obtained from the classification analysis. In contrast, big-game and small-game species were not significantly segregated several decades ago, when there was only one chorotype consisting of small-game species and wild boar. The other three ungulates did not constitute a significant chorotype, as they showed positive correlations with some species in the group mentioned above. These changes seem to be a consequence of the transformations that have occurred in the Iberian Mediterranean landscape over the last few decades. The abandoning of traditional activities, and the consequent formation of dense scrubland and woodland, has led to an expansion of big-game species, and a decrease of small-game species in mountain areas. Moreover, agricultural intensification has apparently depleted small-game species populations in some agricultural areas. On the other hand, the increasingly intensive hunting management could be artificially boosting this segregation between small-game and big-game species. Our results suggest that the conservation and regeneration of traditional agricultural landscapes (like those predominating in the 1960s) should be a priority for the conservation of small-game species.

Specific association of a CLEC16A/KIAA0350 polymorphism with NOD2/CARD15- Crohn's disease patients.

Independent genome-wide association studies highlighted the function of CLEC16A/KIAA0350 polymorphisms modifying the risk to either multiple sclerosis (rs6498169) or type 1 diabetes (rs2903692). This C-type lectin gene maps to a linkage disequilibrium block at 16p13 and a functional role of this gene could be envisaged for other immune-related conditions, such as inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). The present study, aimed at investigating the association of those two polymorphisms with IBD, included 720 IBD patients and 550 ethnically matched healthy controls. The effect of rs2903692 previously described in diabetes was observed specifically for Crohns disease (CD) patients lacking the main susceptibility factor described to date, that is, three polymorphisms within another pattern recognition gene, NOD2/CARD15 (NOD2− vs NOD2+ CD patients, G vs A: P=0.008; OR (95% CI)=1.54 (1.10–2.15); NOD2− CD patients vs controls: P=0.008; OR (95% CI)=1.37 (1.08–1.73)). Replication of these findings was performed in independent Spanish cohorts of 544 IBD patients and 340 controls and the combined data yielded significant differences (405 NOD2− vs 204 NOD2+ CD patients, G vs A: P=0.0012; ORM-H (95% CI)=1.49 (1.17–1.90); NOD2− CD patients vs controls: P=0.0007; ORM-H (95% CI)=1.35 (1.13–1.60)). The pooled analysis of the ulcerative colitis patients vs controls also yielded a significant risk (P=0.0005; OR (95% CI)=1.52 (1.19–1.93)). These data would suggest that microbial recognition through different pathways seems to converge in the development of these polygenic bowel diseases.

Distribution patterns of indigenous freshwater fishes in the Tagus River basin, Spain

Classification and ordination methods used to examine the internal complexity of the Mediterranean Tagus River catchment based on fish distribution revealed that it is not a homogeneous biogeographical unit. The indigenous fishes analyzed in this study are distributed through the basin forming geographical communities (chorotypes), some of which are associated with environmental factors like river morphology, water quality or geographical location. Nevertheless, 40% of the variation in species occurrence remains unexplained by either environmental or geographical variables, suggesting that historical factors may influence the freshwater fish distribution patterns. Three main biogeographical areas, delimited by significant boundaries, were identified. Two of them are identified as the upper and the middle-lower basins of the Tagus River catchment; the third corresponds to the Alagón River and seems to be linked to historical factors of the catchment.

Specific association of a CLEC16AsKIAA0350 polymorphism with NOD2sCARD15− Crohn's disease patients

Independent genome-wide association studies highlighted the function of CLEC16A/KIAA0350 polymorphisms modifying the risk to either multiple sclerosis (rs6498169) or type 1 diabetes (rs2903692). This C-type lectin gene maps to a linkage disequilibrium block at 16p13 and a functional role of this gene could be envisaged for other immune-related conditions, such as inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). The present study, aimed at investigating the association of those two polymorphisms with IBD, included 720 IBD patients and 550 ethnically matched healthy controls. The effect of rs2903692 previously described in diabetes was observed specifically for Crohns disease (CD) patients lacking the main susceptibility factor described to date, that is, three polymorphisms within another pattern recognition gene, NOD2/CARD15 (NOD2− vs NOD2+ CD patients, G vs A: P=0.008; OR (95% CI)=1.54 (1.10–2.15); NOD2− CD patients vs controls: P=0.008; OR (95% CI)=1.37 (1.08–1.73)). Replication of these findings was performed in independent Spanish cohorts of 544 IBD patients and 340 controls and the combined data yielded significant differences (405 NOD2− vs 204 NOD2+ CD patients, G vs A: P=0.0012; ORM-H (95% CI)=1.49 (1.17–1.90); NOD2− CD patients vs controls: P=0.0007; ORM-H (95% CI)=1.35 (1.13–1.60)). The pooled analysis of the ulcerative colitis patients vs controls also yielded a significant risk (P=0.0005; OR (95% CI)=1.52 (1.19–1.93)). These data would suggest that microbial recognition through different pathways seems to converge in the development of these polygenic bowel diseases.

Disentangling the relative effects of bushmeat availability on human nutrition in central Africa

We studied links between human malnutrition and wild meat availability within the Rainforest Biotic Zone in central Africa. We distinguished two distinct hunted mammalian diversity distributions, one in the rainforest areas (Deep Rainforest Diversity, DRD) containing taxa of lower hunting sustainability, the other in the northern rainforest-savanna mosaic, with species of greater hunting potential (Marginal Rainforest Diversity, MRD). Wild meat availability, assessed by standing crop mammalian biomass, was greater in MRD than in DRD areas. Predicted bushmeat extraction was also higher in MRD areas. Despite this, stunting of children, a measure of human malnutrition, was greater in MRD areas. Structural equation modeling identified that, in MRD areas, mammal diversity fell away from urban areas, but proximity to these positively influenced higher stunting incidence. In DRD areas, remoteness and distance from dense human settlements and infrastructures explained lower stunting levels. Moreover, stunting was higher away from protected areas. Our results suggest that in MRD areas, forest wildlife rational use for better human nutrition is possible. By contrast, the relatively low human populations in DRD areas currently offer abundant opportunities for the continued protection of more vulnerable mammals and allow dietary needs of local populations to be met.

Correlates of bushmeat in markets and depletion of wildlife

We used data on number of carcasses of wildlife species sold in 79 bushmeat markets in a region of Nigeria and Cameroon to assess whether species composition of a market could be explained by anthropogenic pressures and environmental variables around each market. More than 45 mammal species from 9 orders were traded across all markets; mostly ungulates and rodents. For each market, we determined median body mass, species diversity (game diversity), and taxa that were principal contributors to the total number of carcasses for sale (game dominance). Human population density in surrounding areas was significantly and negatively related to the percentage ungulates and primates sold in markets and significantly and positively related to the proportion of rodents. The proportion of carnivores sold was higher in markets with high human population densities. Proportion of small-bodied mammals (<1 kg) sold in markets increased as human population density increased, but proportion of large-bodied mammals (>10 kg) decreased as human population density increased. We calculated an index of game depletion (GDI) for each market from the sum of the total number of carcasses traded per annum and species, weighted by the intrinsic rate of natural increase (rmax ) of each species, divided by individuals traded in a market. The GDI of a market increased as the proportion of fast-reproducing species (highest rmax ) increased and as the representation of species with lowest rmax (slow-reproducing) decreased. The best explanatory factor for a markets GDI was anthropogenic pressure-road density, human settlements with >3000 inhabitants, and nonforest vegetation. High and low GDI were significantly differentiated by human density and human settlements with >3000 inhabitants. Our results provided empirical evidence that human activity is correlated with more depleted bushmeat faunas and can be used as a proxy to determine areas in need of conservation action.

Fuzzy chorotypes as a conceptual tool to improve insight into biogeographic patterns.

Chorotypes--statistically significant groups of coincident distribution areas--constitute biogeographic units that are fuzzy by nature. This quality has been referred to in the literature but has not been analyzed in depth or methodologically developed. The present work redefines chorotypes as fuzzy sets from a pragmatic perspective and basically focuses on the methodological and interpretative implications of this approach. The amphibian fauna in the Iberian Peninsula was used as an example to explore the fuzzy nature of chorotypes. The method on which this article is based is a widely used technique to define chorotypes. This method involves the fuzziness that is inherent to the identification between degree of similarity and degree of membership and includes a probabilistic analysis of the classification for the objective delimitation of chorotypes. The main innovation of this paper is a procedure to analyze chorotypes as fuzzy biogeographic units. A set of fuzzy parameters to deal with the biogeographic interpretation of fuzzy chorotypes is also described. A computer program has been developed and is freely available. History may be related to the degree of fuzziness of chorotypes. In our example, with amphibian distributions in Iberia, less fuzzy chorotypes could have a historical explanation, and the internal fuzziness of chorotypes increases with their distance to hypothetical Pleistocene refugia.