J. Mario Vargas

Obtaining Environmental Favourability Functions from Logistic Regression

Logistic regression is a statistical tool widely used for predicting species’ potential distributions starting from presence/absence data and a set of independent variables. However, logistic regression equations compute probability values based not only on the values of the predictor variables but also on the relative proportion of presences and absences in the dataset, which does not adequately describe the environmental favourability for or against species presence. A few strategies have been used to circumvent this, but they usually imply an alteration of the original data or the discarding of potentially valuable information. We propose a way to obtain from logistic regression an environmental favourability function whose results are not affected by an uneven proportion of presences and absences. We tested the method on the distribution of virtual species in an imaginary territory. The favourability models yielded similar values regardless of the variation in the presence/absence ratio. We also illustrate with the example of the Pyrenean desman’s (Galemys pyrenaicus) distribution in Spain. The favourability model yielded more realistic potential distribution maps than the logistic regression model. Favourability values can be regarded as the degree of membership of the fuzzy set of sites whose environmental conditions are favourable to the species, which enables applying the rules of fuzzy logic to distribution modelling. They also allow for direct comparisons between models for species with different presence/absence ratios in the study area. This makes them more useful to estimate the conservation value of areas, to design ecological corridors, or to select appropriate areas for species reintroductions.

Otter (Lutra lutra) distribution modeling at two resolution scales suited to conservation planning in the Iberian Peninsula

We used the results of the Spanish Otter Survey of 1994–1996, a Geographic Information System and stepwise multiple logistic regression to model otter presence/absence data in the continental Spanish UTM 10� 10-km squares. Geographic situation, indicators of human activity such as highways and major urban centers, and environmental variables related with productivity, water availability, altitude, and environmental energy were included in a logistic model that correctly classified about 73% of otter presences and absences. We extrapolated the model to the adjacent territory of Portugal, and increased the model’s spatial resolution by extrapolating it to 1� 1-km squares in the whole Iberian Peninsula. The model turned out to be rather flexible, predicting, for instance, the species to be very restricted to the courses of rivers in some areas, and more widespread in others. This allowed us to determine areas where otter populations may be more vulnerable to habitat changes or harmful human interventions. # 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rabbits and hominin survival in Iberia.

High dependence on the hunting and consumption of large mammals by some hominins may have limited their survival once their preferred quarry became scarce or disappeared. Adaptation to smaller residual prey would have been essential after the many large-bodied species decreased in numbers. We focus on the use of a superabundant species, the rabbit, to demonstrate the importance of this taxon in Iberia as fundamental to predators. We show that the use of the rabbit over time has increased, and that there could have been differential consumption by Neanderthals and Anatomically Modern Humans (AMH). Analysis of bone remains from excavations throughout Iberia show that this lagomorph was a crucial part of the diet of AMH but was relatively unutilised during the Mousterian, when Neanderthals were present. We first present changes in mammalian biomass and mean body mass of mammals over 50,000 years, to illustrate the dramatic loss of large mammalian fauna and to show how the rabbit may have contributed a consistently high proportion of the available game biomass throughout that period. Unlike the Italian Peninsula and other parts of Europe, in Iberia the rabbit has provided a food resource of great importance for predators including hominins. We suggest that hunters that could shift focus to rabbits and other smaller residual fauna, once larger-bodied species decreased in numbers, would have been able to persist. From the evidence presented here, we postulate that Neanderthals may have been less capable of prey-shifting and hence use the high-biomass prey resource provided by the rabbit, to the extent AMH did.

Use of Coarse‐Resolution Models of Species’ Distributions to Guide Local Conservation Inferences

Distribution models are used increasingly for species conservation assessments over extensive areas, but the spatial resolution of the modeled data and, consequently, of the predictions generated directly from these models are usually too coarse for local conservation applications. Comprehensive distribution data at finer spatial resolution, however, require a level of sampling that is impractical for most species and regions. Models can be downscaled to predict distribution at finer resolutions, but this increases uncertainty because the predictive ability of models is not necessarily consistent beyond their original scale. We analyzed the performance of downscaled, previously published models of environmental favorability (a generalized linear modeling technique) for a restricted endemic insectivore, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), and a more widespread carnivore, the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra), in the Iberian Peninsula. The models, built from presence-absence data at 10 × 10 km resolution, were extrapolated to a resolution 100 times finer (1 × 1 km). We compared downscaled predictions of environmental quality for the two species with published data on local observations and on important conservation sites proposed by experts. Predictions were significantly related to observed presence or absence of species and to expert selection of sampling sites and important conservation sites. Our results suggest the potential usefulness of downscaled projections of environmental quality as a proxy for expensive and time-consuming field studies when the field studies are not feasible. This method may be valid for other similar species if coarse-resolution distribution data are available to define high-quality areas at a scale that is practical for the application of concrete conservation measures.

Distribution and Numbers of Pygmies in Central African Forests

Pygmy populations occupy a vast territory extending west-to-east along the central African belt from the Congo Basin to Lake Victoria. However, their numbers and actual distribution is not known precisely. Here, we undertake this task by using locational data and population sizes for an unprecedented number of known Pygmy camps and settlements (n = 654) in five of the nine countries where currently distributed. With these data we develop spatial distribution models based on the favourability function, which distinguish areas with favourable environmental conditions from those less suitable for Pygmy presence. Highly favourable areas were significantly explained by presence of tropical forests, and by lower human pressure variables. For documented Pygmy settlements, we use the relationship between observed population sizes and predicted favourability values to estimate the total Pygmy population throughout Central Africa. We estimate that around 920,000 Pygmies (over 60% in DRC) is possible within favourable forest areas in Central Africa. We argue that fragmentation of the existing Pygmy populations, alongside pressure from extractive industries and sometimes conflict with conservation areas, endanger their future. There is an urgent need to inform policies that can mitigate against future external threats to these indigenous peoples’ culture and lifestyles.

Mus spretus (Rodentia: Muridae)

Abstract Mus spretus Lataste, 1883, is a small, wild (noncommensal) murine with a rounded muzzle and small eyes and ears. This species, commonly called the western Mediterranean mouse, is distributed throughout Portugal across all but the northern fringe of Spain into the southern region of France. In Africa it occupies the Maghreb area from Morocco up to Algeria and Tunsia. It prefers open habitats but is found in a variety of agroecosystems such as crops, orchards, grasslands, scrubland, or forests. Its diet reflects the availability of resources more than its preferences for certain food items. M. spretus constitutes an important component of the diet of more than a dozen predators, including carnivores, owls, and snakes. It is classified as a species of Least Concern.

Environmental influences on local amphibian diversity: the role of floods on river basins

We tested two hypotheses about boundary units and seven about environmental control of species diversity in order to explain geographical trends in the richness of amphibian species in the Mediterranean watershed of the southern coast of the Iberian Peninsula. The number of amphibian species tends to decrease from west to east. The longitudinal trend in the richness of amphibian species actually occurs on passing from one basin to another, but there is not any longitudinal trend within the basins. Multivariate analyses confirmed that the disturbances of episodic river-basin floodings were the principal factor which controls the richness of amphibian species. They explained 94.8% of the observed variations in the richness of amphibian species in this area, according to the intermediate disturbance hypothesis.We propose hydrographic basins as suitable geographical units for further biogeographical analysis and for considering the role of disturbances produced by floods in the environmental control of species diversity.

Latitudinal trends in breeding waterbird species richness in Europe and their environmental correlates

We analysed the latitudinal trend in the number of breeding waterbird species in Europe using the main river basins as geographic units. The number of breeding waterbird species decreases southward, but this latitudinal trend is composed of two opposed patterns: a southward increase in the number of resident species (RS) and a southward decline in the number of aestival species (SS). Following both a bivariate and a multivariate approach, we tested nine hypotheses about the environmental causes of these trends. Using Partial Regression Analysis and Path Analysis, we found that SS richness depends on the bloom in food availability in areas with high seasonality more than on the other environmental factors; environmental stress due to an excess of energy is the second most important factor involved, whereas the third factor involved in the distribution of SS richness is competition with RS. For RS the factors involved are the climatic stability of the basins and their productivity. We also discuss the suitability of river basins as observational units in this kind of analyses and the marginal influence of their surface area in the latitudinal gradients detected here.

Chorotypes of seaweeds from the western Mediterranean Sea and the Adriatic Sea : An analysis based on the genera Audouinella (Rhodophyta), Cystoseira (Phaeophyceae) and Cladophora (Chlorophyta)

The aim of the present paper is to identify the possible existence of groups of species in the genera Audouinella (Rhodophyta), Cystoseira (Phaeophyceae) and Cladophora (Chloropyta) with significantly similar distribution patterns (chorotypes), in the western Mediterranean Sea and the Adriatic Sea. Of the 98 species studied, 59 were grouped into 11 chorotypes, whereas 39 species remained ungrouped. Thirty‐eight species were included in a generalist chorotype, whereas 6 chorotypes were monospecific. The relationships with the environmental factors that could explain the chorotypes are discussed.

Is the interaction between rabbit hemorrhagic disease and hyperpredation by raptors a major cause of the red-legged partridge decline in Spain?

Hyperpredation can be described as a restrictive case of apparent competition where an increased number of primary prey species indirectly induces the decrease of the secondary prey species through numerical response of predators to the primary prey dynamics. It has been proposed that rabbit hemorrhagic disease (RHD), which decimated populations of European wild rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in Spain, led to prey switching by raptors towards red-legged partridges (Alectoris rufa) causing declines in their populations as a peculiar case of hyperpredation.We have reviewed field studies that disagree with estimates (based on bag records) of recent increases of rabbit and partridge numbers in Spain. Because of an increase in releases of farm-reared animals, there is doubt about the use of bag records to accurately estimate population trends in recent decades. We also provide new data and discuss some analytical considerations related to the temporal and spatial scales that might affect the interpretation of data. Finally, we discuss why studies associated with raptor food habits, predator population dynamics and predator distribution suggest that diet data are not sufficient to link patterns and processes. Although we agree that the RHD outbreak has markedly affected rabbit populations, which has indirectly affected many other species in the Iberian Peninsula, we consider that hyperpredation mediated by raptors has not been clearly demonstrated. In contrast, endorsing the hypothesis of raptor-mediated hyperpredation without sufficient proof may have conflictive consequences if we consider the increased persecution of raptors in recent decades in Spain.