Raimundo Real

Obtaining Environmental Favourability Functions from Logistic Regression

Logistic regression is a statistical tool widely used for predicting species’ potential distributions starting from presence/absence data and a set of independent variables. However, logistic regression equations compute probability values based not only on the values of the predictor variables but also on the relative proportion of presences and absences in the dataset, which does not adequately describe the environmental favourability for or against species presence. A few strategies have been used to circumvent this, but they usually imply an alteration of the original data or the discarding of potentially valuable information. We propose a way to obtain from logistic regression an environmental favourability function whose results are not affected by an uneven proportion of presences and absences. We tested the method on the distribution of virtual species in an imaginary territory. The favourability models yielded similar values regardless of the variation in the presence/absence ratio. We also illustrate with the example of the Pyrenean desman’s (Galemys pyrenaicus) distribution in Spain. The favourability model yielded more realistic potential distribution maps than the logistic regression model. Favourability values can be regarded as the degree of membership of the fuzzy set of sites whose environmental conditions are favourable to the species, which enables applying the rules of fuzzy logic to distribution modelling. They also allow for direct comparisons between models for species with different presence/absence ratios in the study area. This makes them more useful to estimate the conservation value of areas, to design ecological corridors, or to select appropriate areas for species reintroductions.

Otter (Lutra lutra) distribution modeling at two resolution scales suited to conservation planning in the Iberian Peninsula

We used the results of the Spanish Otter Survey of 1994–1996, a Geographic Information System and stepwise multiple logistic regression to model otter presence/absence data in the continental Spanish UTM 10� 10-km squares. Geographic situation, indicators of human activity such as highways and major urban centers, and environmental variables related with productivity, water availability, altitude, and environmental energy were included in a logistic model that correctly classified about 73% of otter presences and absences. We extrapolated the model to the adjacent territory of Portugal, and increased the model’s spatial resolution by extrapolating it to 1� 1-km squares in the whole Iberian Peninsula. The model turned out to be rather flexible, predicting, for instance, the species to be very restricted to the courses of rivers in some areas, and more widespread in others. This allowed us to determine areas where otter populations may be more vulnerable to habitat changes or harmful human interventions. # 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Past, present and future of wild ungulates in relation to changes in land use

In recent decades, Mediterranean landscapes have been experiencing more rapid changes in land use than usual, which have affected the ecology of the species inhabiting this biodiversity hotspot. Some studies have assessed the effect of such changes on biodiversity, but most of these were diachronic studies of population dynamics, or synchronic studies of species habitat selection, whereas few studies have simultaneously taken into account temporal changes in habitat composition and changes in species distribution. This study analysed the effects of land-use changes on the distribution of wild ungulates (Capreolus capreolus, Capra pyrenaica, Cervus elaphus and Sus scrofa). Using favourability function and Markov chain analysis combined with cellular automata, we addressed the following objectives: (i) to examine the environmental determinants of ungulate distribution in the past (1960s) and present (1990s), (ii) to model land use for 2040 to forecast future species distributions and (iii) to assess the biogeographical differences between the above-mentioned study periods (past–present and present–future). Species favourability was predicted to be more widely distributed in the present than in the past, but this increase varied across species. Areas predicted to be favourable in the present should remain stable in the future, but in addition there will be more new favourable areas not previously occupied by these species. The results are discussed from the perspective of the socio-economic relevance of wild ungulates in relation to some unfavourable areas of Mediterranean regions.

Favourability: concept, distinctive characteristics and potential usefulness

The idea of analysing the general favourability for the occurrence of an event was presented in 2006 through a mathematical function. However, even when favourability has been used in species distribution modelling, the conceptual framework of this function is not yet well perceived among many researchers. The present paper is conceived for providing a wider and more in-depth presentation of the idea of favourability; concretely, we aimed to clarify both the concept and the main distinctive characteristics of the favourability function, especially in relation to probability and suitability, the most common outputs in species distribution modelling. As the capabilities of the favourability function go beyond species distribution modelling, we also illustrate its usefulness for different research disciplines for which this function remains unknown. In particular, we stressed that the favourability function has potential to be applied in all the cases where the probability of occurrence of an event is analysed, such as, for example, habitat selection or epidemiological studies.

Land use and environmental factors affecting red-legged partridge (Alectoris rufa) hunting yields in southern Spain

The red-legged partridge is a small game species widely hunted in southern Spain. Its commercial use has important socioeconomic effects in rural areas where other agrarian uses are of marginal importance. The aims of the present work were to identify areas in Andalusia (southern Spain) where game yields for the red-legged partridge reach high values and to establish the environmental and land use factors that determine them. We analysed 32,134 annual hunting reports (HRs) produced by 6,049 game estates during the hunting seasons 1993/1994 to 2001/2002 to estimate the average hunting yields of red-legged partridge in each Andalusian municipality (n=771). We modelled the favourability for obtaining good hunting yields using stepwise logistic regression on a set of climatic, topographical, land use and vegetation variables that were available as digital coverages or tabular data applied to municipalities. Good hunting yields occur mainly in plain areas located in the Guadalquivir valley, at the bottom of Betic Range and in the Betic depressions. Favourable areas are related to highly mechanised, low-elevation areas mainly dedicated to intensive dry crops. The most favourable areas predicted by our model are mainly located in the Guadalquivir valley.

What is the impact of wind farms on birds? A case study in southern Spain

Wind farming is a relatively new form of obtaining energy that does not cause air pollution or other forms of environmental degradation associated with fossil fuel technologies. However, their use impacts on the environment, and the current rate at which they are being put into operation, combined with poor understanding of their medium- and long-term impact, is a cause of concern. Wind farms represent a new source of impact and disturbance for birds that adds to the long list of disturbance factors caused by human activity, such as power lines, radio and television towers, highways, glass windows, the practice of poisoning, illegal hunting and overexploitation. Due to the precarious situation of several bird species and their decline, any additional cause of mortality may be significant and should give rise to increased attention and research. The aim of the present work is to analyse the effect of the “Sierra de Aguas” wind farm on bird density and abundance, flight behaviour, and bird mortality. Mortality rates did not increase due to the presence of the wind turbines. The results suggest that the presence and operation of the wind turbines did not have a clearly negative effect on passerine birds present in the region where wind farm is located. However, raptors used the space around the wind farm with lower frequency than prior to its existence, which represented a displacement of the home range of these species.

Use of Coarse‐Resolution Models of Species’ Distributions to Guide Local Conservation Inferences

Distribution models are used increasingly for species conservation assessments over extensive areas, but the spatial resolution of the modeled data and, consequently, of the predictions generated directly from these models are usually too coarse for local conservation applications. Comprehensive distribution data at finer spatial resolution, however, require a level of sampling that is impractical for most species and regions. Models can be downscaled to predict distribution at finer resolutions, but this increases uncertainty because the predictive ability of models is not necessarily consistent beyond their original scale. We analyzed the performance of downscaled, previously published models of environmental favorability (a generalized linear modeling technique) for a restricted endemic insectivore, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), and a more widespread carnivore, the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra), in the Iberian Peninsula. The models, built from presence-absence data at 10 × 10 km resolution, were extrapolated to a resolution 100 times finer (1 × 1 km). We compared downscaled predictions of environmental quality for the two species with published data on local observations and on important conservation sites proposed by experts. Predictions were significantly related to observed presence or absence of species and to expert selection of sampling sites and important conservation sites. Our results suggest the potential usefulness of downscaled projections of environmental quality as a proxy for expensive and time-consuming field studies when the field studies are not feasible. This method may be valid for other similar species if coarse-resolution distribution data are available to define high-quality areas at a scale that is practical for the application of concrete conservation measures.

Distribution patterns of indigenous freshwater fishes in the Tagus River basin, Spain

Classification and ordination methods used to examine the internal complexity of the Mediterranean Tagus River catchment based on fish distribution revealed that it is not a homogeneous biogeographical unit. The indigenous fishes analyzed in this study are distributed through the basin forming geographical communities (chorotypes), some of which are associated with environmental factors like river morphology, water quality or geographical location. Nevertheless, 40% of the variation in species occurrence remains unexplained by either environmental or geographical variables, suggesting that historical factors may influence the freshwater fish distribution patterns. Three main biogeographical areas, delimited by significant boundaries, were identified. Two of them are identified as the upper and the middle-lower basins of the Tagus River catchment; the third corresponds to the Alagón River and seems to be linked to historical factors of the catchment.

Disentangling the relative effects of bushmeat availability on human nutrition in central Africa

We studied links between human malnutrition and wild meat availability within the Rainforest Biotic Zone in central Africa. We distinguished two distinct hunted mammalian diversity distributions, one in the rainforest areas (Deep Rainforest Diversity, DRD) containing taxa of lower hunting sustainability, the other in the northern rainforest-savanna mosaic, with species of greater hunting potential (Marginal Rainforest Diversity, MRD). Wild meat availability, assessed by standing crop mammalian biomass, was greater in MRD than in DRD areas. Predicted bushmeat extraction was also higher in MRD areas. Despite this, stunting of children, a measure of human malnutrition, was greater in MRD areas. Structural equation modeling identified that, in MRD areas, mammal diversity fell away from urban areas, but proximity to these positively influenced higher stunting incidence. In DRD areas, remoteness and distance from dense human settlements and infrastructures explained lower stunting levels. Moreover, stunting was higher away from protected areas. Our results suggest that in MRD areas, forest wildlife rational use for better human nutrition is possible. By contrast, the relatively low human populations in DRD areas currently offer abundant opportunities for the continued protection of more vulnerable mammals and allow dietary needs of local populations to be met.

Differential distribution within longline transects of loggerhead turtles and swordfish captured by the Spanish Mediterranean surface longline fishery

Surface longline targeting mainly swordfish is considered a major threat for loggerhead turtle populations in the western Mediterranean Sea. For this reason, it is necessary to analyse the relationship between the characteristics of longline sets and loggerhead turtle by-catch. The objective of this study is to look for differential spatial distribution of loggerhead turtle and swordfish captures along the longline to gain insights that might be useful to diminish unintended, incidental catch of turtles without affecting the captures of the target species. Longlines are divided into transects separated by two consecutives buoys. During the 1999 fishing period of the traditional (without roller) Spanish surface drifting longline fleet (August to November), 59 technically homogeneous fishing operations, composed of 23 sections each, were observed. Chi-square test was used to compare loggerhead turtle and swordfish distributions among transects with those expected at random. Significant differences were obtained only for loggerhead turtles, with 93% of the specimens caught in the second half of the longline transects, which were retrieved from the sea during daytime. Significant differences were not found for the swordfish along the whole longline or for loggerhead turtle captures retrieved during daytime. We conclude that swordfish captures are independent of retrieval time whereas the incidental catch of loggerhead turtles occurs mainly during daytime, probably because loggerhead turtles use vision to locate baits.