Andjelka Kelic

Decision framework for evaluating the macroeconomic risks and policy impacts of cyber attacks

Abstract Increased reliance on the Internet for critical infrastructure and the global nature of supply chains provides an opportunity for adversaries to leverage dependencies and gain access to vital infrastructure. Traditional approaches to assessing risk in the cyber domain, including estimation of impacts, fall short due to uncertainty in how interconnected systems react to cyber attack. This paper describes a method to represent the pathways of disruption propagation, evaluate the macroeconomic impact of cyber threats and aid in selecting among various cybersecurity policies. Based on state of the art agent-based modeling, multicriteria decision analysis, and macroeconomic modeling tools, this framework provides dynamic macroeconomic, demographic and fiscal insights regarding shocks caused by cyber attacks to the regional economy over time. The interlinkage of these models will provide a robust and adaptive system that allows policy makers to evaluate complex issues such as cybersecurity threats and their impacts on the geopolitical, social, environmental, and macroeconomic landscape.

Dynamic Changes in Subscriber Behavior and Their Impact on the Telecom Network in Cases of Emergency

The telecommunication network is recognized by the federal government as one of the critical national infrastructures that must be maintained and protected against debilitating attacks. We have previously shown how failures in the telecommunication network can quickly lead to telecommunication congestion and to extended delays in successful call completion. However, even if the telecom network remains fully operational, the special telecommunication demands that materialize at times of emergencies, and dynamically change based on subscriber behavior, can also adversely affect the performance of the overall telecommunication network. The network simulation modeling and analysis research tool (N-SMART) has been developed by Bell Labs as part of its work with the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center. This center is a joint program at Sandia National Laboratories and Los Alamos National Laboratory, funded and managed by the Department of Homeland Securitys (DHS) Preparedness Directorate. N-SMART is a discrete event (call level) telecom model that simulates capacities, blocking levels, retrials, and time to complete calls for both wireline and wireless networks. N-SMART supports the capability of simulating subscriber reattempt behaviour under various scenarios. Using this capability we show how the network can be adversely impacted by sudden changes in subscriber behavior. We also explore potential solutions and ways of mitigating those impacts

Creating interaction environments: defining a two-sided market model of the development and dominance of platforms

Interactions between individuals, both economic and social, are increasingly mediated by technological systems. Such platforms facilitate interactions by controlling and regularizing access, while extracting rent from users. The relatively recent idea of two-sided markets has given insights into the distinctive economic features of such arrangements, arising from network effects and the power of the platform operator. Simplifications required to obtain analytical results, while leading to basic understanding, prevent us from posing many important questions. For example we would like to understand how platforms can be secured when the costs and benefits of security differ greatly across users and operators, and when the vulnerabilities of particular designs may only be revealed after they are in wide use. We define an agent-based model that removes many constraints limiting existing analyses (such as uniformity of users, free and perfect information), allowing insights into a much larger class of real systems.

Energy and water sector policy strategies for drought mitigation.

Tensions between the energy and water sectors occur when demand for electric power is high and water supply levels are low. There are several regions of the country, such as the western and southwestern states, where the confluence of energy and water is always strained due to population growth. However, for much of the country, this tension occurs at particular times of year (e.g., summer) or when a region is suffering from drought conditions. This report discusses prior work on the interdependencies between energy and water. It identifies the types of power plants that are most likely to be susceptible to water shortages, the regions of the country where this is most likely to occur, and policy options that can be applied in both the energy and water sectors to address the issue. The policy options are designed to be applied in the near term, applicable to all areas of the country, and to ease the tension between the energy and water sectors by addressing peak power demand or decreased water supply.

Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructure Modeling

Critical infrastructures are highly interconnected both within an infrastructure sector and with one another. In many cases, there are also cyber systems that provide information or control to those infrastructures. Those dependencies can lead to unexpected consequences in the event of an incident. Simulation models that account for dependencies are critical to gain insight. This document provides an overview of accounting for dependencies in constructing simulation models and some of the associated challenges. The 9-1-1 system provides an example of a highly connected critical infrastructure system.

A Generalized Framework for Modeling Next Generation 911 Implementations.

This document summarizes the current state of Sandia 911 modeling capabilities and then addresses key aspects of Next Generation 911 (NG911) architectures for expansion of existing models. Analysis of three NG911 implementations was used to inform heuristics, associated key data requirements, and assumptions needed to capture NG911 architectures in the existing models. Modeling of NG911 necessitates careful consideration of its complexity and the diversity of implementations. Draft heuristics for constructing NG911 models are presented based on the analysis along with a summary of current challenges and ways to improve future NG911 modeling efforts. We found that NG911 relies on Enhanced 911 (E911) assets such as 911 selective routers to route calls originating from traditional telephony service which are a majority of 911 calls. We also found that the diversity and transitional nature of NG911 implementations necessitates significant and frequent data collection to ensure that adequate models are available for crisis action support.

Earthquake warning system for infrastructures : a scoping analysis.

This report provides the results of a scoping study evaluating the potential risk reduction value of a hypothetical, earthquake early-warning system. The study was based on an analysis of the actions that could be taken to reduce risks to population and infrastructures, how much time would be required to take each action and the potential consequences of false alarms given the nature of the action. The results of the scoping analysis indicate that risks could be reduced through improving existing event notification systems and individual responses to the notification; and production and utilization of more detailed risk maps for local planning. Detailed maps and training programs, based on existing knowledge of geologic conditions and processes, would reduce uncertainty in the consequence portion of the risk analysis. Uncertainties in the timing, magnitude and location of earthquakes and the potential impacts of false alarms will present major challenges to the value of an early-warning system.

Phoenix : Complex Adaptive System of Systems (CASoS) engineering version 1.0.

Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems, or CASoS, are vastly complex ecological, sociological, economic and/or technical systems which we must understand to design a secure future for the nation and the world. Perturbations/disruptions in CASoS have the potential for far-reaching effects due to pervasive interdependencies and attendant vulnerabilities to cascades in associated systems. Phoenix was initiated to address this high-impact problem space as engineers. Our overarching goals are maximizing security, maximizing health, and minimizing risk. We design interventions, or problem solutions, that influence CASoS to achieve specific aspirations. Through application to real-world problems, Phoenix is evolving the principles and discipline of CASoS Engineering while growing a community of practice and the CASoS engineers to populate it. Both grounded in reality and working to extend our understanding and control of that reality, Phoenix is at the same time a solution within a CASoS and a CASoS itself.

Power, telecommunications, and emergency services in a converged network world

Critical national infrastructures for power, emergency services, finance, and other basic industries rely heavily on information and telecommunications networks (voice, data, Internet) to provide services and conduct business. While todaypsilas legacy networks tend to be highly reliable, tomorrowpsilas converged networks may be less reliable and outages can have cascading effects to other infrastructures. This paper describes a dynamic simulation model of power outages on converged networks which cascades to impact telecommunication for services with limited power back-up, which cascades to impact emergency services (911 or 112 calling).