Andrea H. Lloyd

Spatial and temporal variability in the growth and climate response of treeline trees in Alaska

In this study, we investigated the response of trees growing at the cold margins of the boreal forest to climate variation in the 20th century. Working at eight sites at and near alpine and arctic treeline in three regions in Alaska, we compared tree growth (from measured tree ring-widths) to historical climate data to document how growth has responded to climate variation in the 20th century. We found that there was substantial regional variability in response to climate variation. Contrary to our expectations, we found that after 1950 warmer temperatures were associated with decreased tree growth in all but the wettest region, the Alaska Range. Although tree growth increased from 1900–1950 at almost all sites, significant declines in tree growth were common after 1950 in all but the Alaska Range sites. We also found that there was substantial variability in response to climate variation according to distance to treeline. Inverse growth responses to temperature were more common at sites below the forest margin than at sites at the forest margin. Together, these results suggest that inverse responses to temperature are widespread, affecting even the coldest parts of the boreal forest. Even in such close proximity to treeline, warm temperatures after 1950 have been associated with reduced tree growth. Growth declines were most common in the warmer and drier sites, and thus support the hypothesis that drought-stress may accompany increased warming in the boreal forest.

Arctic system on trajectory to new, seasonally ice‐free state

The Arctic system is moving toward a new state that falls outside the envelope of glacialinterglacial fl uctuations that prevailed during recent Earth history. This future Arctic is likely to have dramatically less permanent ice than exists at present. At the present rate of change, a summer ice-free Arctic Ocean within a century is a real possibility, a state not witnessed for at least a million years. The change appears to be driven largely by feedback-enhanced global climate warming, and there seem to be few, if any, processes or feedbacks within the Arctic system that are capable of altering the trajectory toward this “super interglacial” state.

ECOLOGICAL HISTORIES FROM ALASKAN TREE LINES PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO FUTURE CHANGE

Ecosystem responses to past climate change can provide insight into plausible scenarios of response to future change and can elucidate factors that may influence the overall predictability of such responses. I explore the utility of paleoecological studies for addressing questions about the predictability of ecosystem responses to climate change using Alaskan tree line ecosystems as a case study. Published studies were used to develop a regional analysis of patterns of recent tree line advance, and to estimate lags between recruitment onset and forest development beyond tree line. Tree line advance is ubiquitous, but asynchronous in time, occurring significantly earlier in the White Mountains in interior Alaska than in western Alaska or the Alaska Range. The mean lag between initiation of recruitment and forest development was estimated at approximately 200 years, similar to what modeling studies have found. Although continued advance of white spruce forests is the most likely scenario of future change, variability in the rate of forest response to warming may be likely due to limitation of spruce establishment in highly permafrost-affected sites, changes in seed dispersal and early establishment, and recent changes in the growth responses of individual trees to temperature. All of these factors may cause spruce populations to exhibit nonlinear responses to future warming, and uncritical extrapolation from recent trends is thus unwarranted.

Recent changes in treeline forest distribution and structure in interior Alaska

Abstract Although the forest-tundra boundary is likely to be sensitive to future climate warming, the degree to which treeline response may lag climate change and the extent to which sensitivity to climate may vary among sites remain largely unknown. We used tree-ring analysis to reconstruct white spruce (Picea glauca) density from 1800 to present at and beyond the current forest limit at seven altitudinal treeline sites in two regions of interior Alaska. Treeline advance was ubiquitous: cone-bearing spruce are present beyond the current forest limit at all but one site, and tree density has increased at and beyond the forest limit in recent decades at all sites. Increases in stand density were positively correlated with summer temperature at most, but not all, sites. The timing of inferred advances in treeline differed significantly between regions, beginning in the mid- to late 1800s in the White Mountains and in the mid-1900s in the Alaska Range. These differences in the timing of treeline advance may be caused by differences in the rate of forest response to climate or by differences in regional climate history, which remains poorly known. Despite the variation in timing of an advance of treeline, the similarities among sites in the pattern (if not the timing) of change at treeline suggest that recent shifts in the location of the forest-tundra border are a widespread response to recent warming in Alaska.

Resilience of Alaska's Boreal Forest to Climatic Change

This paper assesses the resilience of Alaska’s boreal forest system to rapid climatic change. Recent warming is associated with reduced growth of dominant tree species, plant disease and insect outbreaks, warming and thawing of permafrost, drying of lakes, increased wildfire extent, increased postfire recruitment of deciduous trees, and reduced safety of hunters traveling on river ice. These changes have modified key structural features, feedbacks, and interactions in the boreal forest, including reduced effects of upland permafrost on regional hydrology, expansion of boreal forest into tundra, and amplification of climate warming because of reduced albedo (shorter winter season) and carbon release from wildfires. Other temperature-sensitive processes for which no trends have been detected include composition of plant and microbial communities, long-term landscape-scale change in carbon stocks, stream discharge, mammalian population dynamics, and river access and subsistence opportunities for rural indige...

High‐latitude tree growth and satellite vegetation indices: Correlations and trends in Russia and Canada (1982–2008)

[1] Vegetation in northern high latitudes affects regional and global climate through energy partitioning and carbon storage. Spaceborne observations of vegetation, largely based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), suggest decreased productivity during recent decades in many regions of the Eurasian and North American boreal forests. To improve interpretation of NDVI trends over forest regions, we examined the relationship between NDVI from the advanced very high resolution radiometers and tree ring width measurements, a proxy of tree productivity. We collected tree core samples from spruce, pine, and larch at 22 sites in northeast Russia and northwest Canada. Annual growth rings were measured and used to generate site‐level ring width index (RWI) chronologies. Correlation analysis was used to assess the association between RWI and summer NDVI from 1982 to 2008, while linear regression was used to examine trends in both measurements. The correlation between NDVI and RWI was highly variable across sites, though consistently positive (r = 0.43, SD = 0.19, n = 27). We observed significant temporal autocorrelation in both NDVI and RWI measurements at sites with evergreen conifers (spruce and pine), though weak autocorrelation at sites with deciduous conifers (larch). No sites exhibited a positive trend in both NDVI and RWI, although five sites showed negative trends in both measurements. While there are technological and physiological limitations to this approach, these findings demonstrate a positive association between NDVI and tree ring measurements, as well as the importance of considering lagged effects when modeling vegetation productivity using satellite data.

Vulnerability of white spruce tree growth in interior Alaska in response to climate variability: dendrochronological, demographic, and experimental perspectives

This paper integrates dendrochronological, demographic, and experimental perspectives to improve understanding of the response of white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) tree growth to climatic v...

Ecology of a steppe‐tundra gradient in interior Alaska

. Subarctic steppe is currently restricted in interior Alaska and the Yukon Territory to steep, south-facing river bluffs. Paleoecological and biogeographic evidence suggests that some steppe taxa may have been more widespread during the Full-Glacial. We examined factors controlling the distribution of steppe taxa on an elevation gradient across a steppetundra ecotone; such analyses may help define potential Full-Glacial distributions of these taxa. Multivariate analyses suggest that species can be divided into four spatially distinct groups, but individualistic species distributions create considerable overlap among these groups. The steppe-tundra ecotone comprises a broad zone of mixing between steppe taxa and drought-tolerant alpine tundra taxa, followed by an abrupt shift to alpine shrub tundra. The transition from low steppe to tundra vegetation is primarily associated with a gradient of decreasing soil temperature. The more abrupt transition from mixed steppe-tundra to alpine shrub tundra vegetation is primarily associated with changes in soil depth and soil moisture. Variation in vegetation within steppe is associated with gradients in soil phosphorus and moisture. Greenhouse experiments on drought tolerance of two steppe and two tundra taxa suggest that the individualistic distribution of species along the ecotone is partly a function of physiological differences among species. Our analyses of vegetation-environment relationships support the hypothesis that some components of the steppe community could have been more widespread during the colder Full-Glacial.

Recent Changes in Arctic Vegetation: Satellite Observations and Simulation Model Predictions

This chapter provides an overview of observed changes in vegetation productivity in Arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystems over the past 3 decades, based on satellite remote sensing and other observational records, and relates these to climate variables and sea ice conditions. The emerging patterns and relationships are often complex but clearly reveal a contrast in the response of the tundra and boreal biomes to recent climate change, with the tundra showing increases and undisturbed boreal forests mostly reductions in productivity. The possible reasons for this divergence are discussed and the consequences of continued climate warming for the vegetation in the Arctic region assessed using ecosystem models, both at the biome-scale and at high spatial resolution focussing on plant functional types in the tundra and the tundra-forest ecotones.

Twenty-five years of vegetation change along a putative successional chronosequence on the Tanana River, Alaska.

Along the Tanana River floodplain, several turning points have been suggested to characterize the changes in ecosystem structure and function that accompany plant community changes through primary ...