Andrew Conley

Impact of Desert Dust Radiative Forcing on Sahel Precipitation: Relative Importance of Dust Compared to Sea Surface Temperature Variations, Vegetation Changes, and Greenhouse Gas Warming

The role of direct radiative forcing of desert dust aerosol in the change from wet to dry climate observed in the African Sahel region in the last half of the twentieth century is investigated using simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model. The model simulations are conducted either forced by the observed sea surface temperature (SST) or coupled with the interactive SST using the Slab Ocean Model (SOM). The simulation model uses dust that is less absorbing in the solar wavelengths and has larger particle sizes than other simulation studies. As a result, simulations show less shortwave absorption within the atmosphere and larger longwave radiative forcing by dust. Simulations using SOM show reduced precipitation over the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) including the Sahel region and increased precipitation south of the ITCZ when dust radiative forcing is included. In SST-forced simulations, on the other hand, significant precipitation changes are restricted to over North Africa. These changes are considered to be due to the cooling of global tropical oceans as well as the cooling of the troposphere over North Africa in response to dust radiative forcing. The model simulation of dust cannot capture the magnitude of the observed increase of desert dust when allowing dust to respond to changes in simulated climate, even including changes in vegetation, similar to previous studies. If the model is forced to capture observed changes in desert dust, the direct radiative forcing by the increase of North African dust can explain up to 30% of the observed precipitation reduction in the Sahel between wet and dry periods. A large part of this effect comes through atmospheric forcing of dust, and dust forcing on the Atlantic Ocean SST appears to have a smaller impact. The changes in the North and South Atlantic SSTs may account for up to 50% of the Sahel precipitation reduction. Vegetation loss in the Sahel region may explain about 10% of the observed drying, but this effect is statistically insignificant because of the small number of years in the simulation. Greenhouse gas warming seems to have an impact to increase Sahel precipitation that is opposite to the observed change. Although the estimated values of impacts are likely to be model dependent, analyses suggest the importance of direct radiative forcing of dust and feedbacks in modulating Sahel precipitation.

Climate system response to external forcings and climate change projections in CCSM4

AbstractResults are presented from experiments performed with the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). These include multiple ensemble members of twentieth-century climate with anthropogenic and natural forcings as well as single-forcing runs, sensitivity experiments with sulfate aerosol forcing, twenty-first-century representative concentration pathway (RCP) mitigation scenarios, and extensions for those scenarios beyond 2100–2300. Equilibrium climate sensitivity of CCSM4 is 3.20°C, and the transient climate response is 1.73°C. Global surface temperatures averaged for the last 20 years of the twenty-first century compared to the 1986–2005 reference period for six-member ensembles from CCSM4 are +0.85°, +1.64°, +2.09°, and +3.53°C for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, respectively. The ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the Atlantic, which weakens during the twentieth century in the model, nearly recovers to early...

Last Millennium Climate and Its Variability in CCSM4

AbstractAn overview of a simulation referred to as the “Last Millennium” (LM) simulation of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), is presented. The CCSM4 LM simulation reproduces many large-scale climate patterns suggested by historical and proxy-data records, with Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) surface temperatures cooling to the early 1800s Common Era by ~0.5°C (NH) and ~0.3°C (SH), followed by warming to the present. High latitudes of both hemispheres show polar amplification of the cooling from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) to the Little Ice Age (LIA) associated with sea ice increases. The LM simulation does not reproduce La Nina–like cooling in the eastern Pacific Ocean during the MCA relative to the LIA, as has been suggested by proxy reconstructions. Still, dry medieval conditions over the southwestern and central United States are simulated in agreement with proxy indicators for these regions. Strong global cooling is associated with large volcanic erup...

The Influence of Local Feedbacks and Northward Heat Transport on the Equilibrium Arctic Climate Response to Increased Greenhouse Gas Forcing

AbstractThis study uses coupled climate model experiments to identify the influence of atmospheric physics [Community Atmosphere Model, versions 4 and 5 (CAM4; CAM5)] and ocean model complexity (slab ocean, full-depth ocean) on the equilibrium Arctic climate response to an instantaneous CO2 doubling. In slab ocean model (SOM) experiments using CAM4 and CAM5, local radiative feedbacks, not atmospheric heat flux convergence, are the dominant control on the Arctic surface response to increased greenhouse gas forcing. Equilibrium Arctic surface air temperature warming and amplification are greater in the CAM5 SOM experiment than in the equivalent CAM4 SOM experiment. Larger 2 × CO2 radiative forcing, more positive Arctic surface albedo feedbacks, and less negative Arctic shortwave cloud feedbacks all contribute to greater Arctic surface warming and sea ice loss in CAM5 as compared to CAM4. When CAM4 is coupled to an active full-depth ocean model, Arctic Ocean horizontal heat flux convergence increases in resp...

Global volcanic aerosol properties derived from emissions, 1990-2014, using CESM1(WACCM)

Accurate representation of global stratospheric aerosols from volcanic and non-volcanic sulfur emissions is key to understanding the cooling effects and ozone-losses that may be linked to volcanic activity. Attribution of climate variability to volcanic activity is of particular interest in relation to the post-2000 slowing in the rate of global average temperature increases. We have compiled a database of volcanic SO2 emissions and plume altitudes for eruptions from 1990 to 2014, and developed a new prognostic capability for simulating stratospheric sulfate aerosols in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We used these combined with other non-volcanic emissions of sulfur sources to reconstruct global aerosol properties from 1990 to 2014. Our calculations show remarkable agreement with ground-based lidar observations of stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD), and with in situ measurements of stratospheric aerosol surface area density (SAD). These properties are key parameters in calculating the radiative and chemical effects of stratospheric aerosols. Our SAOD calculations represent a clear improvement over available satellite-based analyses, which generally ignore aerosol extinction below 15 km, a region that can contain the vast majority of stratospheric aerosol extinction at mid- and high-latitudes. Our SAD calculations greatly improve on that provided for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative, which misses about 60% of the SAD measured in situ on average during both volcanically active and volcanically quiescent periods.

Stratospheric ozone chemistry feedbacks are not critical for the determination of climate sensitivity in CESM1(WACCM)

The Community Earth System Model‐Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM1‐WACCM) is used to assess the importance of including chemistry feedbacks in determining the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Two 4×CO2 model experiments were conducted: one with interactive chemistry and one with chemical constituents other than CO2 held fixed at their preindustrial values. The ECS determined from these two experiments agrees to within 0.01 K. Similarly, the net feedback parameter agrees to within 0.01 W m−2 K−1. This agreement occurs in spite of large changes in stratospheric ozone found in the simulation with interactive chemistry: a 30% decrease in the tropical lower stratosphere and a 40% increase in the upper stratosphere, broadly consistent with other published estimates. Off‐line radiative transfer calculations show that ozone changes alone account for the difference in radiative forcing. We conclude that at least for determining global climate sensitivity metrics, the exclusion of chemistry feedbacks is not a critical source of error in CESM.

Improved cirrus simulations in a general circulation model using CARMA sectional microphysics

We have developed a new cirrus model incorporating sectional ice microphysics from the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA) in the latest version of NCARs Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5). Comparisons with DARDAR and 2C-ICE show that CAM5/CARMA improves cloud fraction, ice water content, and ice water path compared to the standard CAM5. Prognostic snow in CAM5/CARMA increases overall ice mass and results in a melting layer at ~4 km in the tropics that is largely absent in CAM5. Subgrid scale supersaturation following Wilson and Ballard (1999) improves ice mass and relative humidity. Increased middle and upper tropospheric condensate in CAM5/CARMA requires a reduction in low-level cloud for energy balance, resulting in a 3.1 W m-2 improvement in shortwave cloud forcing and a 3.8 W m-2 improvement in downwelling shortwave flux at the surface compared to CAM5 and CERES. Total and clear sky longwave upwelling flux at the top are improved in CAM5/CARMA by 1.0 and 2.6 W m-2 respectively. CAM has a 2-3 K cold bias at the tropical tropopause mostly from the prescribed ozone file. Correction of the prescribed ozone or nudging the CAM5/CARMA model to GEOS5-DAS meteorology yields tropical tropopause temperatures and water vapor that agree with COSMIC and MLS. CAM5 relative humidity appears to be too large resulting in a +1.5 ppmv water vapor bias at the tropical tropopause when using GEOS5-DAS meteorology. In CAM5/CARMA, 75% of the cloud ice mass originates from ice particles detrained from convection compared to 25% from in situ nucleation.

On transient climate change at the Cretaceous−Paleogene boundary due to atmospheric soot injections

Significance A mass extinction occurred at the Cretaceous−Paleogene boundary coincident with the impact of a 10-km asteroid in the Yucatán peninsula. A worldwide layer of soot found at the boundary is consistent with global fires. Using a modern climate model, we explore the effects of this soot and find that it causes near-total darkness that shuts down photosynthesis, produces severe cooling at the surface and in the oceans, and leads to moistening and warming of the stratosphere that drives extreme ozone destruction. These conditions last for several years, would have caused a collapse of the global food chain, and would have contributed to the extinction of species that survived the immediate effects of the asteroid impact. Climate simulations that consider injection into the atmosphere of 15,000 Tg of soot, the amount estimated to be present at the Cretaceous−Paleogene boundary, produce what might have been one of the largest episodes of transient climate change in Earth history. The observed soot is believed to originate from global wildfires ignited after the impact of a 10-km-diameter asteroid on the Yucatán Peninsula 66 million y ago. Following injection into the atmosphere, the soot is heated by sunlight and lofted to great heights, resulting in a worldwide soot aerosol layer that lasts several years. As a result, little or no sunlight reaches the surface for over a year, such that photosynthesis is impossible and continents and oceans cool by as much as 28 °C and 11 °C, respectively. The absorption of light by the soot heats the upper atmosphere by hundreds of degrees. These high temperatures, together with a massive injection of water, which is a source of odd-hydrogen radicals, destroy the stratospheric ozone layer, such that Earth’s surface receives high doses of UV radiation for about a year once the soot clears, five years after the impact. Temperatures remain above freezing in the oceans, coastal areas, and parts of the Tropics, but photosynthesis is severely inhibited for the first 1 y to 2 y, and freezing temperatures persist at middle latitudes for 3 y to 4 y. Refugia from these effects would have been very limited. The transient climate perturbation ends abruptly as the stratosphere cools and becomes supersaturated, causing rapid dehydration that removes all remaining soot via wet deposition.

Multimodel precipitation responses to removal of U.S. sulfur dioxide emissions

Emissions of aerosols and their precursors are declining due to policies enacted to protect human health, yet we currently lack a full understanding of the magnitude, spatiotemporal pattern, statistical significance, and physical mechanisms of precipitation responses to aerosol reductions. We quantify the global and regional precipitation responses to U.S. SO2 emission reductions using three fully coupled chemistry-climate models: Community Earth System Model version 1, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model 3, and Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE2. We contrast 200 year (or longer) simulations in which anthropogenic U.S. sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions are set to zero with present-day control simulations to assess the aerosol, cloud, and precipitation response to U.S. SO2 reductions. In all three models, reductions in aerosol optical depth up to 70% and cloud droplet number column concentration up to 60% occur over the eastern U.S. and extend over the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation responses occur both locally and remotely, with the models consistently showing an increase in most regions considered. We find a northward shift of the tropical rain belt location of up to 0.35° latitude especially near the Sahel, where the rainy season length and intensity are significantly enhanced in two of the three models. This enhancement is the result of greater warming in the Northern versus Southern Hemispheres, which acts to shift the Intertropical Convergence Zone northward, delivering additional wet season rainfall to the Sahel. Two of our three models thus imply a previously unconsidered benefit of continued U.S. SO2 reductions for Sahel precipitation.

Multimodel Surface Temperature Responses to Removal of U.S. Sulfur Dioxide Emissions

Three Earth System models are used to derive surface temperature responses to removal of U.S. anthropogenic SO2 emissions. Using multi-century perturbation runs with and without U.S. anthropogenic SO2 emissions, the local and remote surface temperature changes are estimated. In spite of a temperature drift in the control and large internal variability, 200-year simulations yield statistically significant regional surface temperature responses to the removal of U.S. SO2 emissions. Both local and remote surface temperature changes occur in all models, and the patterns of changes are similar between models for Northern Hemisphere land regions. We find a global average temperature sensitivity to U.S. SO2 emissions of 0.0055 K per Tg(SO2) per year with a range of [0.0036, 0.0078]. We examine global and regional responses in SO4 burdens, aerosol optical depths (AOD), and effective radiative forcing (ERF). While changes in AOD and ERF are concentrated near the source region (U.S.), the temperature response is spread over the northern hemisphere with amplification of the temperature increase towards the Arctic. In all models, we find a significant response of dust concentrations, which affects the AOD but has no obvious effect on surface temperature. Temperature sensitivity to the effective radiative forcing of U.S. SO2 emissions is found to differ from the models’ sensitivity to radiative forcing of doubled CO2.