Andrew J. Felton

Underappreciated problems of low replication in ecological field studies

The cost and difficulty of manipulative field studies makes low statistical power a pervasive issue throughout most ecological subdisciplines. Ecologists are already aware that small sample sizes increase the probability of committing Type II errors. In this article, we address a relatively unknown problem with low power: underpowered studies must overestimate small effect sizes in order to achieve statistical significance. First, we describe how low replication coupled with weak effect sizes leads to Type M errors, or exaggerated effect sizes. We then conduct a meta-analysis to determine the average statistical power and Type M error rate for manipulative field experiments that address important questions related to global change; global warming, biodiversity loss, and drought. Finally, we provide recommendations for avoiding Type M errors and constraining estimates of effect size from underpowered studies.

Integrating plant ecological responses to climate extremes from individual to ecosystem levels

Climate extremes will elicit responses from the individual to the ecosystem level. However, only recently have ecologists begun to synthetically assess responses to climate extremes across multiple levels of ecological organization. We review the literature to examine how plant responses vary and interact across levels of organization, focusing on how individual, population and community responses may inform ecosystem-level responses in herbaceous and forest plant communities. We report a high degree of variability at the individual level, and a consequential inconsistency in the translation of individual or population responses to directional changes in community- or ecosystem-level processes. The scaling of individual or population responses to community or ecosystem responses is often predicated upon the functional identity of the species in the community, in particular, the dominant species. Furthermore, the reported stability in plant community composition and functioning with respect to extremes is often driven by processes that operate at the community level, such as species niche partitioning and compensatory responses during or after the event. Future research efforts would benefit from assessing ecological responses across multiple levels of organization, as this will provide both a holistic and mechanistic understanding of ecosystem responses to increasing climatic variability. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events’.

Ecoevolutionary Dynamics of Carbon Cycling in the Anthropocene

Climate change is altering natural selection globally, which could shift the evolutionary trajectories of traits central to the carbon (C) cycle. Here, we examine the components necessary for the evolution of C cycling traits to substantially drive changes in global C cycling and integrate these components into a framework of ecoevolutionary dynamics. Recent evidence points to the evolution of C cycling traits during the Anthropocene and the potential to significantly affect atmospheric CO2. We identify directions for further collaboration between evolutionary, ecosystem, and climate scientists to study these ecoevolutionary feedback dynamics and determine whether this evolution will ultimately accelerate or decelerate the current trend in rising atmospheric CO2.

Linking Changes to Intraspecific Trait Diversity to Community Functional Diversity and Biomass in Response to Snow and Nitrogen Addition Within an Inner Mongolian Grassland

In recent years, both the intraspecific and interspecific functional diversity (FD) of plant communities have been studied with new approaches to improve an understanding about the mechanisms underlying plant species coexistence. Yet, little is known about how global change drivers will impact intraspecific FD and trait overlap among species, and in particular how this may scale to impacts on community level FD and ecosystem functioning. To address this uncertainty, we assessed the direct and indirect responses of specific leaf area (SLA) among both dominant annual and subordinate perennial species to the independent and interactive effects of nitrogen and snow addition within the Inner Mongnolian steppe. More specifically, we investigated the consequences for these responses on plant community FD, trait overlap and biomass. Nitrogen addition increased the biomass of the dominant annual species and as a result increased total community biomass. This occurred despite concurrent decreases in the biomass of subordinate perennial species. Nitrogen addition also increased intraspecific FD and trait overlap of both annual species and perennial species, and consequently increased the degree of trait overlap in SLA at the community level. However, snow addition did not significantly impact intraspecific FD and trait overlap of SLA for perennial species, but increased intraspecific FD and trait overlap of annual species, of which scaled to changes in community level FD. We found that the responses of the dominant annual species to nitrogen and snow additions were generally more sensitive than the subordinate perennial species within the inner Mongolian grassland communities of our study. As a consequence of this sensitivity, the responses of the dominant species largely drove impacts to community FD, trait overlap and community biomass. In total, our study demonstrates that the responses of dominant species in a community to environmental change may drive the initial trajectories of change to community FD and functioning.