B. Eickhout

Nitrogen and sulfur deposition on regional and global scales: A multimodel evaluation

We use 23 atmospheric chemistry transport models to calculate current and future (2030) deposition of reactive nitrogen (NOy, NHx) and sulfate (SOx) to land and ocean surfaces. The models are driven by three emission scenarios: (1) current air quality legislation (CLE); (2) an optimistic case of the maximum emissions reductions currently technologically feasible (MFR); and (3) the contrasting pessimistic IPCC SRES A2 scenario. An extensive evaluation of the present-day deposition using nearly all information on wet deposition available worldwide shows a good agreement with observations in Europe and North America, where 60–70% of the model-calculated wet deposition rates agree to within ±50% with quality-controlled measurements. Models systematically overestimate NHx deposition in South Asia, and underestimate NOy deposition in East Asia. We show that there are substantial differences among models for the removal mechanisms of NOy, NHx, and SOx, leading to ±1 σ variance in total deposition fluxes of about 30% in the anthropogenic emissions regions, and up to a factor of 2 outside. In all cases the mean model constructed from the ensemble calculations is among the best when comparing to measurements. Currently, 36–51% of all NOy, NHx, and SOx is deposited over the ocean, and 50–80% of the fraction of deposition on land falls on natural (nonagricultural) vegetation. Currently, 11% of the worlds natural vegetation receives nitrogen deposition in excess of the “critical load” threshold of 1000 mg(N) m−2 yr−1. The regions most affected are the United States (20% of vegetation), western Europe (30%), eastern Europe (80%), South Asia (60%), East Asia (40%), southeast Asia (30%), and Japan (50%). Future deposition fluxes are mainly driven by changes in emissions, and less importantly by changes in atmospheric chemistry and climate. The global fraction of vegetation exposed to nitrogen loads in excess of 1000 mg(N) m−2 yr−1 increases globally to 17% for CLE and 25% for A2. In MFR, the reductions in NOy are offset by further increases for NHx deposition. The regions most affected by exceedingly high nitrogen loads for CLE and A2 are Europe and Asia, but also parts of Africa.

Impact of future land use and land cover changes on atmospheric chemistry-climate interactions

annual soil NO emissions by ∼1.2 TgN yr −1 (9%), whereas isoprene emissions decrease by ∼50 TgC yr −1 (−12%). The analysis shows increases in simulated boundary layer ozone mixing ratios up to ∼9 ppbv and more than a doubling in hydroxyl radical concentrations over deforested areas in Africa. Small changes in global atmosphere‐biosphere fluxes of NOx and ozone point to compensating effects. Decreases in soil NO emissions in deforested regions are counteracted by a larger canopy release of NOx caused by reduced foliage uptake. Despite this decrease in foliage uptake, the ozone deposition flux does not decrease since surface layer mixing ratios increase because of a reduced oxidation of isoprene by ozone. Our study indicates that the simulated impact of land cover and land use changes on atmospheric chemistry depends on a consistent representation of emissions, deposition, and canopy interactions and their dependence on meteorological, hydrological, and biological drivers to account for these compensating effects. It results in negligible changes in the atmospheric oxidizing capacity and, consequently, in the lifetime of methane. Conversely, we expect a pronounced increase in oxidizing capacity as a consequence of anthropogenic emission increases. Citation: Ganzeveld, L., L. Bouwman, E. Stehfest, D. P. van Vuuren, B. Eickhout, and J. Lelieveld (2010), Impact of future land use and land cover changes on atmospheric chemistry‐climate interactions, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D23301,

Quantifying the effectiveness of climate change mitigation through forest plantations and carbon sequestration with an integrated land-use model

BackgroundCarbon plantations are introduced in climate change policy as an option to slow the build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. Here we present a methodology to evaluate the potential effectiveness of carbon plantations. The methodology explicitly considers future long-term land-use change around the world and all relevant carbon (C) fluxes, including all natural fluxes. Both issues have generally been ignored in earlier studies.ResultsTwo different baseline scenarios up to 2100 indicate that uncertainties in future land-use change lead to a near 100% difference in estimates of carbon sequestration potentials. Moreover, social, economic and institutional barriers preventing carbon plantations in natural vegetation areas decrease the physical potential by 75–80% or more.Nevertheless, carbon plantations can still considerably contribute to slowing the increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration but only in the long term. The most conservative set of assumptions lowers the increase of the atmospheric CO2 concentration in 2100 by a 27 ppm and compensates for 5–7% of the total energy-related CO2 emissions. The net sequestration up to 2020 is limited, given the short-term increased need for agricultural land in most regions and the long period needed to compensate for emissions through the establishment of the plantations. The potential is highest in the tropics, despite projections that most of the agricultural expansion will be in these regions. Plantations in high latitudes as Northern Europe and Northern Russia should only be established if the objective to sequester carbon is combined with other activities.ConclusionCarbon sequestration in plantations can play an important role in mitigating the build-up of atmospheric CO2. The actual magnitude depends on natural and management factors, social barriers, and the time frame considered. In addition, there are a number of ancillary benefits for local communities and the environment. Carbon plantations are, however, particularly effective in the long term. Furthermore, plantations do not offer the ultimate solution towards stabilizing CO2 concentrations but should be part of a broader package of options with clear energy emission reduction measures.

Global impacts of European agricultural and biofuel policies

Food supply and food distribution have been and are important issues in the global political arena. The recent emergence of biofuel policies has increased the influence of the policy arena on agricultural production. In this paper we show the regional impact of changes in the European Common Agricultural Policy and biofuel policy. Shifting trade patterns, changes in agricultural production, and expansion of agricultural area or intensification of agriculture result in changes in land use and land use emissions. Higher prices for agricultural crops on the world market together with changing production raise agricultural income. Brazil is the region the most affected. The results show that arrangements or policies will be needed to avoid negative impacts in other regions of changing agricultural or biofuel policies in the European Union.

Consequences of the cultivation of energy crops for the global nitrogen cycle

In this paper, we assess the global consequences of implementing first- and second-generation bioenergy in the coming five decades, focusing on the nitrogen cycle. We use a climate mitigation scenario from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Developments (OECD) Environmental Outlook, in which a carbon tax is introduced to stimulate production of biofuels from energy crops. In this scenario, the area of energy crops will increase from 8 Mha in the year 2000 to 270 Mha (14% of total cropland) and producing 5.6 Pg dry matter per year (12% of energy use) in 2050. This production requires an additional annual 19 Tg of N fertilizer in 2050 (15% of total), and this causes a global emission of 0.7 Tg of N2O-N (8% of agricultural emissions), 0.2 Tg NO-N (6%), and 2.2 Tg of NH3-N (5%). In addition, we project that 2.6 Tg of NO3(-)-N will leach from fields under energy crops. The emissions of N2O may be an important term in the greenhouse gas balance of biofuels produced from energy crops.