Antti Lehtilä

Bioenergy and the forest industry in Finland after the adoption of the Kyoto protocol

Abstract In Finland the percentage of biomass fuels of total primary energy supply is relatively high, close to 17%. The share of biomass in the total electricity generation is as much as 10%. This high share in Finland is mainly due to the cogeneration of electricity and heat within forest industry using biomass-based by-products and wastes as fuels. Forest industry is also a large user of fossil-based energy. About 28% of total primary energy consumption in Finland takes place in forest industry, causing about 16% of the total fossil carbon dioxide emissions. The Kyoto protocol limits the fossil CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions and provides some incentives to the Finnish forest sector. There are trade-offs among the raw-material, energy and carbon sink uses of the forests. Fossil emissions can be reduced e.g. by using more wood and producing chemical pulp instead of mechanical one. According to the calculation rules of the Kyoto protocol Finnish forests in 2008–2012 are estimated to form a carbon source of 0.36 Tg C a−1 due to land use changes. Factually the forest biomass will still be a net carbon sink between 3.5 and 8.8 Tg C a−1. Because the carbon sinks of existing forests are not counted in the protocol, there is an incentive to increase wood use in those and to decrease the real net carbon sink. Also the criteria for sustainable forestry could still simultaneously be met.

The role of CH4 and N2O emission reductions in the cost-effective control of the greenhouse gas emissions from Finland

The reduction of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions may be quite expensive and it is necessary to consider reduction measures for other anthropogenic greenhouse gases, such as methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) as well. Their contribution to the total GHG emission from Finland is about 15–20%. In Finland most of the CH4 emissions are due to waste management, agriculture and burning processes. N2O emissions originate from burning processes, agriculture, industry and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen. The cost-effective reduction of the Finnish GHG emissions has been studied with the EFOM-ENV model, which is a quasi-dynamic linear energy system optimisation model. The target function to be minimised is the total discounted cost for the modelled system. In this study the model has been expanded to cover all well-known anthropogenic CO2, CH4 and N2O sources and reduction measures. The results indicate it is economic to reduce the emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O in Finland. It is profitable to exploit the economic reduction potential of CH4 and N2O, because then the abatement of CO2 emissions does not need to be as extensive as when the reduction is aimed only at CO2 emissions. The inclusion of CH4 and N2O decreases the annual reduction costs about 20% in the year 2010.

Modelling Pathways to a Low Carbon Economy for Finland

Concretizing the roadmaps outlined for moving to a low carbon economy by 2050 into detailed policies is a challenging task. Using ETSAP-TIAM as the central modeling tool, we have analyzed the implications of low carbon policies within Europe, with a special focus on the Finnish energy system. The main objective of the work was to identify cost-effective pathways for moving into a low carbon economy by 2050, by creating a set of different storylines for the future society and economy. The analysis involved also linking the energy system model to an applied general equilibrium model and a forest sector partial equilibrium model for estimating the impacts on the overall economy as well as land-use change and forestry. The scenario results indicate that Finland has good opportunities for achieving its low carbon targets by 2050 due to its large natural resources. The major uncertainties are related to the application of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and possible sustainability criteria for biomass.

Economic reduction of acidifying deposition in Finland by decreasing emissions in Finland, Estonia and Russia

Here we consider cost-effective solutions of emission control measures in Finland and the nearby areas of Estonia, St. Petersburg region, Karelia and Kola, in order to limit the acidifying deposition in Finland. In the study, the emission control costs of SO2, NOx and NH3 are assessed for the areas studied and an optimisation model developed for calculation of cost-optimal deposition control policies. The input data of the model consist of the cost functions describing the emission control costs to achieve lower emission levels for the gases and areas considered and of dispersion coefficients which describe the deposition due to an emission source in the deposition receptor grid squares. In addition, the model includes a description to calculate the acidifying load. The optimisation is based on linear programming. When the acidifying load of Southern Finland is reduced by minimising the total control costs, approx, three quarters of the total control costs are due to measures in the nearby areas, Estonia, St. Peterburg region, Karelia and Kola, and approx. one quarter due to measures in Finland. The distribution of costs in the cost-optimised cases depends relatively little on the level to which the acidifying load due the source areas considered are required to be reduced. If the load reduction target is moderate, the emission control measures should mainly be allocated to sulphur emissions and to some extent to ammonia emissions and, if the load reduction target is stricter, also to the emissions of nitrogen oxides.

Assessment of Carbon Emissions Quotas with the Integrated TIMES and MERGE Model

The success of climate change mitigation depends on the modalities for the extension of the Kyoto protocol after 2020. This refers to the appropriate level of GHG reduction imposed as emissions quotas in line with the 2 °C commitment. We perform a parametric analysis where increasingly stringent cumulative and global emission quota bounds are applied using the integrated TIMES and MERGE model (ITMM). The model integrates in one set of equations two hybrid top-down and bottom-up models both able to analyze technological change. The study assumes efficient policies and measures where all world regions accept a binding protocol in 2020 while mitigation policies will start already in 2015. However, this early introduction of efficient policies needs capital transfers for a fair burden sharing in favor of countries with low income and in that sense the model assumptions are critical. Marginal cost of carbon control of these optimistic policies are high (600–1000

Pathways to Post-fossil Economy in a Well Below 2 ℃ World

/t of carbon by 2050) but global GDP losses remain moderate and below 1.5 % per year.

Baltic Energy Technology Scenarios 2018

We explore the pathways for mitigating climate change to at most 2 ℃ and below by imposing a representative target trajectory for radiative forcing and by range of different price trajectories for greenhouse gas emissions. Due to the inertia in both the energy and climate systems, it appears questionable whether the objective of limiting global warming to well-below 2 ℃ is achievable without considerably overshooting the target within the current century. Exceeding the constraints of the estimated carbon budget also means that the initial overshooting must be later compensated by removing the excess emissions with negative emissions, which may become very difficult without substantial technological changes leading the world into a sustainable post-fossil economy. We outline an idealised technology pathway aligning with these viewpoints. The analysis highlights the necessity for immediate mitigation action for avoiding excessive overshooting, the key role of negative emissions, and the prospects of producing synthetic fuels, chemicals and materials from renewables and carbon dioxide for enabling the transition into the post-fossil economy.

From Copenhagen to Durban and the challenge for sustainable levels of GHG concentrations

Baltic Energy Technology Scenarios 2018 (BENTE) is a scenario-based energy system analysis that explores the changes in the Baltic countries’ energy systems. What are the drivers and their impacts ...

The impacts of EU CO2 emissions trading on electricity markets and electricity consumers in Finland

The Durban Conference of Parties (COP17) has approved a deal to negotiate and arrange by 2015, a global commitment to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) starting from 2020 onwards. COP17 confirmed the Cancun (COP16) agreement concluding that future global warming should be limited to below 2°C post-industrial. This report investigates scenarios of gradually stringent remaining emissions quotas (REQ) resulting to increased probabilities to limit temperature rise below 2°C. REQ are applied as cumulative bounds in the combined TIMES-MACRO model of the USA with the MERGE Integrated Assessment Model both able to analyse technological change. The study summarises the main findings and conclusions of this parametric analysis where all world regions accept a binding protocol or Accord starting in 2020 mitigating global warming. The mathematical description of the combined model that integrates in one set of equations and one objective function two hybrid top-down and bottom-up models with complementary regional representation is described in this paper.