Tommi Ekholm

Carbon balance indicator for forest bioenergy scenarios

A carbon (C) balance indicator is presented for the evaluation of forest bioenergy scenarios as a means to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A bioenergy‐intensive scenario with a greater harvest is compared to a baseline scenario. The relative carbon indicator (RC) is defined as the ratio between the difference in terrestrial C stocks – that is the C debt – and the difference in cumulative bioenergy harvest between the scenarios, over a selected time frame T. A value of zero indicates no C debt from additional biomass harvests, while a value of one indicates a C debt equal to the amount of additionally harvested biomass C. Multiplying the RC indicator by the smokestack emission factor of biomass (approximately 110 t CO2/TJ) provides the net cumulative CO2 emission factor of the biomass combustion as a function of T, allowing a direct comparison with the emission factors of comparable fossil fuels. The indicator is applied to bioenergy cases in Finland, where typically the rotation length of managed forests is long and the decay rate of harvest residues is slow. The country‐level examples illustrate that although Finnish forests remain as a C sink in each of the considered scenarios, the efforts of increasing forest bioenergy may still increase the atmospheric CO2 concentrations in comparison with the baseline scenario and use of fossil fuels. The results also show that the net emission factor depends – besides on forest‐growth or residue‐decay dynamics – on the timing and evolution of harvests as well. Unlike for the constant fossil C emission factor, the temporal profile of bioenergy use is of great importance for the net emission factor of biomass.

Optimal forest rotation age under efficient climate change mitigation

This paper considers the optimal rotation of forests when the carbon flows from forest growth and harvest are priced with an increasing price. Such evolution of carbon price is generally associated with economically efficient climate change mitigation, and would provide incentives for the land-owner for enhanced carbon sequestration. For an infinitely long sequence of even-aged forest rotations, the optimal harvest age changes with subsequent rotations due to the changing carbon price. The first-order optimality conditions therefore also involve an infinite chain of lengths for consecutive forest rotations, and allow the approximation of the infinite-time problem with a truncated series of forest rotations.

Hedging the climate sensitivity risks of a temperature target

This paper addresses the problem of meeting a predetermined temperature target cost-effectively under uncertainty and gradual learning on climate sensitivity. The firstorder optimality conditions to a stochastic cost-minimization problem with a temperature constraint are first provided, portraying how marginal costs evolve with an optimal hedging strategy. Then, numerical stochastic scenarios with cost curves fitted to recent climate changemitigation scenarios are presented, illustrating both the range of possible future pathways and the effect of uncertainty to the solution. Last, the effect of several different sets of assumptions on the optimal hedging strategy are analyzed. The results highlight that the hedging of climate sensitivity risk calls for deeper early reductions, although the possibility of different assumptions prevents providing accurate policy guidance.

Integrated scenario modelling of energy, greenhouse gas emissions and forestry

Preventing dangerous climate change requires actions on several sectors. Mitigation strategies have focused primarily on energy, because fossil fuels are the main source of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Another important sector recently gaining more attention is the forest sector. Deforestation is responsible for approximately one fifth of the global emissions, while growing forests sequester and store significant amounts of carbon. Because energy and forest sectors and climate change are highly interlinked, their interactions need to be analysed in an integrated framework in order to better understand the consequences of different actions and policies, and find the most effective means to reduce emissions. This paper presents a model, which integrates energy use, forests and greenhouse gas emissions and describes the most important linkages between them. The model is applied for the case of Finland, where integrated analyses are of particular importance due to the abundant forest resources, major forest carbon sink and strong linkage with the energy sector. However, the results and their implications are discussed in a broader perspective. The results demonstrate how full integration of all net emissions into climate policy could increase the economic efficiency of climate change mitigation. Our numerical scenarios showed that enhancing forest carbon sinks would be a more cost-efficient mitigation strategy than using forests for bioenergy production, which would imply a lower sink. However, as forest carbon stock projections involve large uncertainties, their full integration to emission targets can introduce new and notable risks for mitigation strategies.

A risk hedging strategy for the 2°C target and the Copenhagen Accord

This report presents the results from a research project ”Long term impact of the Copenhagen accord regarding the 2 degree target”, done at VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland during autumn 20 ...