Åsa Forsman

Generic structures of decision support systems for evaluation of policy measures to reduce catchment-scale nitrogen fluxes

Abstract Decision support systems (DSSs) for evaluation of different policy measures have two important functions: to assess how considered policy measures may influence the behavior of actors, and to predict the effects of a given set of actions generated from the anticipated behavior. So far, almost all attempts to construct DSSs for environmental management have focused on assessing the impact of a set of actions on the environment. Here, we describe the generic structure of a DSS that enables more complete evaluation of regional or national policies to reduce nitrogen inputs to water. In particular, we expound the principles for linking models of farm economic behavior to catchment-scale models of the transport and transformation of nitrogen in soil and water. First, we define system boundaries for nitrogen fluxes through the agricultural sector and the ambient environment to create a basis for model integration. Thereafter, we show how different modules operating on different temporal and spatial scales can be interlinked. Finally, we demonstrate how statistical emulators or meta-models can be derived to reduce the computational burden and increase the transparency of the DSS. In particular, we show when and how the temporal or spatial resolution of model inputs can be reduced without significantly influencing the estimates of annual nitrogen fluxes on a catchment scale.

Reduced models for efficient simulation of spatially integrated outputs of one-dimensional substance transport models

We examined under what circumstances the results of a large number of runs of the one-dimensional, physics-based SOIL/SOILN nitrate transport model can be combined into a reduced (or meta) model. We considered the total flow of nitrate from a given area and investigated when and how hidden linear structures can be extracted from the underlying model. The presence of such structures can justify the use of spatially aggregated inputs to compute spatially aggregated outputs. Extensive Monte-Carlo simulations showed that some linear structures emerged when the outputs for a long period of time were summed. Other linear structures appeared as relationships between two different components of the model outputs. However, different cropping systems respond differently to changes in anthropogenic or meteorological forcings. Therefore, we derived a reduced model of long-term leaching of nitrogen from the root zone in an agricultural area by combining each combination of soil type and cropping system. Reduced models can help make process-oriented models more transparent, and they are particularly suitable for incorporation into decision support systems.

Impact of Nonresponse and Weighting in Swedish Travel Survey

Results from travel surveys, together with traffic monitoring programs, serve as a basis for policy decisions and evaluations. Correct interpretation of the survey results is therefore of vital importance, and the impact of different sources of error needs to be investigated. This paper presents a study of nonresponse errors in a Swedish travel survey. Survey methodologists have addressed the problem of nonresponse for a long time, and several methods have been developed to reduce possible bias. Particularly common are different weighting methods based on auxiliary information. However, the performance of these techniques is based on how well the chosen auxiliary variables can explain the response behavior. The aims of the present study were to (a) investigate whether the mobility of nonrespondents differs from the mobility of respondents and (b) determine whether weighting reduces possible nonresponse bias. A weighting technique called calibration was used. The travel survey was based on a mail questionnaire, and the response rate was about 53%. Nonrespondents were contacted by telephone and asked a selected number of questions from the original questionnaire. Results show that mobility did differ between respondents and nonrespondents for some of the travel modes. The effect of calibration was generally small and inconsistent; the bias was reduced in some cases and increased in others. Nevertheless, calibration is recommended if procedures for calculating the weights are readily available.

Traffic safety effects of new speed limits in Sweden

The effects of speed, both positive and negative, make speed a primary target for policy action. Driving speeds affect the risk of being involved in a crash and the injury severity as well as the noise and exhaust emissions. Starting 2008, the Swedish Transport Administration performed a review of the speed limits on the national rural road network. This review resulted in major changes of the speed limits on the rural road network. It was predominantly roads with a low traffic safety standard and unsatisfactory road sides that were selected for reduced speed limits, as well as roads with a good traffic safety record being selected for an increase in speed limits. During 2008 and 2009, speed limit changed on approximately 20,500km of roads, out of which approximately 2700km were assigned an increase, and 17,800km were assigned a reduction in speed limits. The aim of this study is predominantly to describe and analyse the longterm traffic safety effect of increased, as well as, reduced speed limits, but also to analyse the changes in actual driving speeds due to the changed speed limits. Traffic safety effects are investigated by means of a before and after study with control group and the effects on actual mean speeds are measured by a sampling survey in which speed was measured at randomly selected sites before and after the speed limit changes. Results show a reduction in fatalities on rural roads with reduced speed limit from 90 to 80km/h where the number of fatalities decreased by 14 per year, while no significant changes were seen for the seriously injured. On motorways with an increased speed limit to 120km/h, the number of seriously injured increased by about 15 per year, but no significant changes were seen for the number of deaths. The number of seriously injured increased on all types of motorways, but the worst development was seen for narrow motorways (21.5m wide). For 2+1 roads (a continuous three-lane cross-section with alternating passing lanes and the two directions of travel separated by a median barrier) with decreased speed limit from 110 to 100km/h, the seriously injured decreased by about 16 per year. As regards the change of mean speeds, a decrease in speed limit with 10km/h led to a decrease of mean speeds of around 2-3km/h and an increase of the speed limit with 10km/h resulted in an increase of mean speed by 3km/h. In conclusion, the results show that in total about 17 lives per year have been saved on the road network with changed speed limits. For comparison, 397 road users were killed in total during 2008. The number of seriously injured remain in principle unchanged. It should also be noted that the results are obtained for the road network which changed the speed limits during 2008 and 2009, and it is not certain that the results can be generalised to another road network.

Changes in speed distribution: Applying aggregated safety effect models to individual vehicle speeds

This study investigated the effect of applying two aggregated models (the Power model and the Exponential model) to individual vehicle speeds instead of mean speeds. This is of particular interest when the measure introduced affects different parts of the speed distribution differently. The aim was to examine how the estimated overall risk was affected when assuming the models are valid on an individual vehicle level. Speed data from two applications of speed measurements were used in the study: an evaluation of movable speed cameras and a national evaluation of new speed limits in Sweden. The results showed that when applied on individual vehicle speed level compared with aggregated level, there was essentially no difference between these for the Power model in the case of injury accidents. However, for fatalities the difference was greater, especially for roads with new cameras where those driving fastest reduced their speed the most. For the case with new speed limits, the individual approach estimated a somewhat smaller effect, reflecting that changes in the 15th percentile (P15) were somewhat larger than changes in P85 in this case. For the Exponential model there was also a clear, although small, difference between applying the model to mean speed changes and individual vehicle speed changes when speed cameras were used. This applied both for injury accidents and fatalities. There were also larger effects for the Exponential model than for the Power model, especially for injury accidents. In conclusion, applying the Power or Exponential model to individual vehicle speeds is an alternative that provides reasonable results in relation to the original Power and Exponential models, but more research is needed to clarify the shape of the individual risk curve. It is not surprising that the impact on severe traffic crashes was larger in situations where those driving fastest reduced their speed the most. Further investigations on use of the Power and/or the Exponential model at individual vehicle level would require more data on the individual level from a range of international studies.