Astrid Offermans

Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in River deltas in a changing environment

Exploring adaptation pathways into an uncertain future can support decisionmaking in achieving sustainable water management in a changing environment. Our objective is to develop and test a method to identify such pathways by including dynamics from natural variability and the interaction between the water system and society. Present planning studies on long-term water management often use a few plausible futures for one or two projection years, ignoring the dynamic aspect of adaptation through the interaction between the water system and society. Our approach is to explore pathways using multiple realisations of transient scenarios with an Integrated Assessment Meta Model (IAMM). This paper presents the first application of the method using a hypothetical case study. The case study shows how to explore and evaluate adaptation pathways. With the pathways it is possible to identify opportunities, threats, timing and sequence of policy options, which can be used by policymakers to develop water management roadmaps into the future. By including the dynamics between the water system and society, the influence of uncertainties in both systems becomes clearer. The results show, among others, that climate variability rather than climate change appears to be important for taking decisions in water management.

A perspective-based simulation game to explore future pathways of an interacting water-society system

In this article, the authors address the challenge of including societal responses, society-environment interactions, discontinuity, and surprise in environmental scenario analysis. They do so through developing and testing a perspective-based simulation game for a typical Dutch river stretch. Concepts deriving from Cultural Theory, the Advocacy Coalition Framework, and Transition Theory provide the input for the game design. Players take on the role of water managers, responding to events and developments in the water-society system under specific realizations of a climate scenario. Responses include the choice for specific river management options, changing coalition perspectives, and changes in advocacy coalition membership. A pilot case study shows that the simulation game is a useful tool to explore possible future river management dynamics. It generates relevant insights in the water management strategies that may be chosen under future conditions, the possible drivers underlying future societal perspective change, and the way advocacy coalitions may interact. As such, the simulation game offers great potential for developing and assessing policy relevant climate adaptation pathways, in which water-society interaction, discontinuity, and surprise is taken explicitly into account. The main challenges for future research include reducing game complexity, better representing changes in the advocacy coalitions’ strengths, and exploring more fundamental societal perspective shifts.

Internet public opinion on climate change: a world views analysis of online reader comments

Purpose – The purpose of the study was to assess the representation of different world views with respect to climate change in public opinion on the internet. Design/methodology/approach – The authors conducted this world views analysis by means of a content analysis of publicly expressed opinions in the form of online lay reader comments to articles on climate change, published on Dutch newspaper web sites between August 2002 and December 2009. The comments were assigned to the world views of two typologies commonly used in ex ante assessment of climate policies. The classification of an online reader comment was based on world view specific keywords and positions on climate change. Findings – From a set of 2,148 comments to 168 articles found on the web sites of 19 newspapers, 314 comments could be assigned to a particular world view. For both typologies, the distribution of comments over the different world views was highly uneven, with world views characterized as “climate sceptic” scoring more than 9...

The Dutch dominant perspective on water; risks and opportunities involved

To implement or continue water management strategies social support is needed. Social support highly depends on peoples perspectives on water. However, these perspectives are not static and may change over time leading to changes in social support for strategies. Therefore, sustainable water management strategies should be robust. Robust strategies are able to cope with changing social and environmental developments. Lacking robustness runs the risk of losing social support, which may force policymakers into sudden or expensive measures. We use the Perspectives Method to analyze the present Dutch policy perspective and the dominant perspective on water among Dutch water professionals, by respectively studying the Dutch Delta report and questionnaire outputs and distinguishing between Hierarchical, Egalitarian, Individualistic and Fatalistic perspectives. A comparison between the policy and professional perspective shows similarities and differences. Topics regarding drought, water supply, and waters’ relation to spatial planning need serious reconsideration to guarantee enough present and future social support to implement the measures suggested in the policy report.

The effects of globalization on Ecological Footprints: an empirical analysis

Whether globalization is sustainable is a contested issue. The quantitative literature on the Maastricht Globalization Index (MGI) and the KOF index of globalization shows that globalization contributes positively to economic and human development, environmental performance, mortality, gender equality and physical integrity rights. However, globalization also drives within-country income inequality, especially in developing countries. Evidence on the effects of globalization on the ecological environment does not provide clear patterns; various dimensions of globalization have different effects on various pollutants. This article analyzes the statistical relationship between the most recent MGI (2012 edition) and the ecological dimension of sustainable development. The latter will be operationalized by considering four variants of the Ecological Footprint. The relation between globalization and sustainable development will be controlled for GDP per capita as a proxy for affluence and report the results for Pearson’s correlations and multivariate regressions for up to 171 countries. We conclude that the overall index of globalization significantly increases the Ecological Footprint of consumption, exports and imports. The decomposition of globalization into different domains reveals that apart from the political dimension, all dimensions drive human pressures and demands on the environment. Globalization needs to go into new directions if it is to make a contribution toward all aspects of sustainable development.

Spotlights on Certification and farmers’ Welfare: crossing Boundaries in social scientific Research

ABSTRACT Social scientists have the freedom to adopt different methodological approaches when researching development. This article illustrates how four common social scientific methodologies (positivism, social constructivism, action research, and normative political theory) differently conceptualise the effects of sustainability certification on Indonesian smallholder farmers. It shows that each approach results in different insights, offering a web of information to practitioners. Better understanding the different methodologies may help practitioners to take position in dilemmas, not in a linear process of knowledge accumulation, but in an iterative process of research consultation and practices.

Perceived impacts of certification and farmer organization: benefits from the Indonesian smallholders’ point-of-view

Certification and participation in farmer organisations are associated with economic and social benefits for farmers. However, knowledge about the differences in the perceived benefits of participation in different organisations and certification schemes is limited. In this paper, we distinguish between three types of farmer organisations in the Indonesian coffee sector: farmer groups, cooperatives, and KUBEs. We compare the benefits farmers perceive from participating in these forms of organisations, including the benefits for unorganised farmers and farmers in different certification schemes (Fair Trade, UTZ, the Rainforest Alliance, and 4C). We find that certified farmers perceive higher benefits than uncertified farmers, and that organised farmers perceive higher benefits than unorganised smallholders. Farmers who hold dual membership (in a farmer group and a KUBE or cooperative) perceive greater benefits than farmers who participate in farmer groups. Although farmers in different certification schemes significantly differ in the benefits they perceive, we could not identify clear patterns based on the schemes. We conclude that integration of the different organisational forms, as well as a more concentrated collaboration between the ministries underlying each organisational form, may improve the benefits perceived by farmers in the Indonesian coffee sector.