H. Middelkoop

Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in River deltas in a changing environment

Exploring adaptation pathways into an uncertain future can support decisionmaking in achieving sustainable water management in a changing environment. Our objective is to develop and test a method to identify such pathways by including dynamics from natural variability and the interaction between the water system and society. Present planning studies on long-term water management often use a few plausible futures for one or two projection years, ignoring the dynamic aspect of adaptation through the interaction between the water system and society. Our approach is to explore pathways using multiple realisations of transient scenarios with an Integrated Assessment Meta Model (IAMM). This paper presents the first application of the method using a hypothetical case study. The case study shows how to explore and evaluate adaptation pathways. With the pathways it is possible to identify opportunities, threats, timing and sequence of policy options, which can be used by policymakers to develop water management roadmaps into the future. By including the dynamics between the water system and society, the influence of uncertainties in both systems becomes clearer. The results show, among others, that climate variability rather than climate change appears to be important for taking decisions in water management.

Heavy-metal pollution of the river Rhine and Meuse floodplains in the Netherlands

The embanked floodplains of the lower Rhine river in the Netherlands contain large amounts of heavy metals, which is a result of many years of deposition of contaminated overbank sediments. The metal pollution varies greatly between the various floodplain sections as well as in vertical direction within the floodplain soil profiles. The present contribution describes the key processes producing the spatial variability of the metal pollution in floodplain soils: (1) spatial patterns of the concentrations and deposition of Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn during a single flood, which have been determined from samples collected after a high-magnitude flood event; (2) the pollution trends of the lower Rhine over the past 150 years, which were reconstructed on the basis of metal concentrations in sediments from small ponds within the floodplain area. During the flood the largest metal depositions (0.03 g/m 2 Cd, 0.7 g/m 2 Cu, 1.1 g/m 2 Pb and 5.0 g/m 2 Zn for the Rhine) occurred along the natural levees, decreasing to about one third of these values at larger distance from the river. Deposition of heavy metals occurred since the end of the nineteenth century. Periods of maximum pollution occurred in the 1930s and 1960s, when Cu, Pb and Zn concentrations were about 6-10 times as high as background values. The resulting metal distribution in the floodplain soil profiles is illustrated by means of typical examples. Maximum metal concentrations in floodplain soils vary from 30 to 130 mg/kg for Cu, from 70 to 490 mg/kg for Pb, and from 170 to 1450 mg/kg for Zn. The lowest metal pollution is found in the distal parts of floodplain sections with low flooding frequencies, where average sedimentation rates have been less than about 5 mm/a. The largest metal accumulations occur in low-lying floodplain sections where average sedimentation rates have been more than 10 mm/a.

Spatial variability of floodplain sedimentation at the event scale in the Rhine–Meuse delta, The Netherlands

This article addresses spatial variability of comtemporary floodplain sedimentation at the event scale. Measurements of overbank deposition were carried out using sediment traps on 11 floodplain sections along the rivers Waal and Meuse in The Netherlands during the high-magnitude flood of December 1993. During the flood, sand sheets were locally deposited behind a natural levee. At distances greater than 50 to 100 m from the river channel the deposits consisted mainly of silt- and clay-sized material. Observed patterns of deposition were related to floodplain topography and sediment transporting mechanisms. Though at several sites patterns were observed that suggest transport by turbulent diffusion, convection seems the dominant transporting mechanism, in particular in sections that are bordered by minor embankments. The average deposition of overbank fines ranged between 1·2 and 4·0 kg m−2 along the river Waal, and between 1·0 and 2·0 kg m−2 along the river Meuse. The estimated total accumulation of overbank fines (not including sand sheets) on the entire river Waal floodplain was 0·24 Mton, which is 19 per cent of the total suspended sediment load transported through the river Waal during the flood.

Estimation of impact of climate change on the peak discharge probability of the river Rhine

RHINEFLOW is a GIS based water balance model that has been developed to study the changes in the water balance compartments of the river Rhine basin on a monthly time basis. The model has been designed to study the sensitivity of the Rhine discharge to a climate change. The calculated discharge has been calibrated and validated on the period 1956 to 1980. For this period the model efficiency of RHINEFLOW is between 0.74 and 0.81 both for the entire Rhine and for its tributaries. Also calculated values for variations in other compartments, e.g. snow storage and actual evapotranspiration, were in good agreement with the measured values.Since a high correlation between monthly discharge and peak discharge was found for the period 1900–1980 The RHINEFLOW model is used to assess the probability of exceedence for discharge peaks under possible future climate conditions.The probabilities of exceedence were calculated from the conditional probabilities of peak discharges for a series of 15 classes of monthly discharges. Comparison of a calculated frequency distribution of high discharge peaks with observed peaks in a test series showed that the method performs well.Scenarios for temperature changes between 0 °C and plus 4 °C and precipitation changes between plus 20% and minus 20% have been applied. Within this range flood frequencies are more sensitive for a precipitation change than for a temperature change. The present two-year return period peak flow (6500–7000 m3/s) decreases by about 6% due to a temperature rise of 4 °C; a precipitation decrease of 20% leads to 30% lower two-year peaks whilst 20% precipitation increase raises them by approximately 30%.Application of a ‘Business As Usual’ (BAU) and an ‘Accelerated Policy’ (AP) climate scenario resulted in a significant increase in probability of peak flows for the BAU scenario, while for the AP scenario no significant change could be found. Due to sampling errors, accurate estimations of recurrence times of discharge peaks⩾7000 m3/s require a longer sampling time series than 90 years. For management purposes the method can be applied to estimate changes of probabilities of events with a relatively long recurrence time.

Temporal variability of contemporary floodplain sedimentation in the Rhine–Meuse delta, The Netherlands

It is often believed that extreme but infrequent events are most important in the development of landforms. When evaluating the overall effect of large floods on floodplain sedimentation, quantitative measurements of both high- and low-magnitude events should be considered. To analyse the role of flood magnitude on floodplain sedimentation, we measured overbank sedimentation during floods of different magnitude and duration. The measurements were carried out on two embanked floodplain sections along the rivers Rhine and Meuse in The Netherlands, using sediment traps made of artificial grass. The results showed an increase in total sediment accumulation with flood magnitude, mainly caused by enhanced accumulation of sand. At low floodplain sections the increase in sediment deposition was smaller than expected from the strong increase in suspended sediment transport in the river. Spatial variability in sediment accumulation was found to depend both on flood magnitude and duration. Deposition of sand on natural levees mainly takes place during high-magnitude floods, whilst low floods and slowly receding floods are important for the deposition of silt and clay in low-lying areas, at greater distance from the main channel.

Fit for purpose? Building and evaluating a fast, integrated model for exploring water policy pathways

Exploring adaptation pathways is an emerging approach for supporting decision making under uncertain changing conditions. An adaptation pathway is a sequence of policy actions to reach specified objectives. To develop adaptation pathways, interactions between environment and policy response need to be analysed over time for an ensemble of plausible futures. A fast, integrated model can facilitate this. Here, we describe the development and evaluation of such a model, an Integrated Assessment Metamodel (IAMM), to explore adaptation pathways in the Rhine delta for a decision problem currently faced by the Dutch Government. The theory-motivated metamodel is a simplified physically based model. Closed questions reflecting the required accuracy were used to evaluate the models fitness. The results show that such a model fits the purpose of screening and ranking of policy options and pathways to support the strategic decision making. A complex model can subsequently be used to obtain more detailed information.

Airborne Laser Scanning as a Tool for Lowland Floodplain Vegetation Monitoring

Monitoring of three-dimensional floodplain vegetation structure is essential for ecological studies, as well as for hydrodynamic modelling of rivers. Height and density of submerged vegetation and density of emergent vegetation are the key characteristics from which roughness parameters in hydraulic models are derived. Airborne laser scanning is a technique with broad applications in vegetation structure mapping, which therefore may be a promising tool in monitoring floodplain vegetation for river management applications. This paper first provides an introduction to the laser scanning technique, and reviews previous studies on the extraction of vegetation height and density of forests, low vegetation and meadows or unvegetated areas. Reliable predictions using laser scan data have been reported for forest height (R2=0.64–0.98), parameters related to forest density, such as stem number, stem diameter, biomass, timber volume or basal area (R2=0.42–0.93), and herbaceous vegetation height (summer condition; R2=0.75–0.89). No empirical relations have been reported on density of herbaceous vegetation. Laser data of meadows and unvegetated areas show too much noise to predict vegetation structure correctly. In a case study for the lower Rhine river, the potential of laser scan mapping of vegetation structure was further explored for winter conditions. Three laser-derived metrics that are often reported in the literature have been applied to characterize local vertical distributions of laser reflections. The laser data clearly show the large structural differences both between and within vegetation units that currently are the basis of floodplain vegetation and roughness mapping. The results indicate that airborne laser scanning is a promising technique for extraction of 3D-structure of floodplain vegetation in winter, except for meadows and unvegetated areas.

Knowledge-based crop classification of a Landsat thematic mapper image

Abstract A knowledge-based classification method was designed to improve crop classification accuracy. Crop data of preceding years, stored in a geographical information system (GIS) were used as ancillary data. Knowledge about crop succession, determined from crop rotation schemes, was formalized by means of transition matrices. The spectral data, the data from the GIS and the knowledge represented in the transition matrix were used in a modified Bayesian classification algorithm. The developed classification was tested in an agricultural region in The Netherlands. Depending on the spectral class discrimination, the accuracy of the knowledge-based classification was 6 to 20 percent better compared with a maximum likelihood classification.

Two novel methods for field measurements of hydrodynamic density of floodplain vegetation using terrestrial laser scanning and digital parallel photography

Hydrodynamic vegetation density, the sum of the projected plant area per unit volume, is an important parameter for floodplain flow models. This paper compares two novel techniques to quantify this parameter in the field: terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) and digital parallel photography (PP). Separate field reference data were collected for the two methods, which consisted of (1) a stem map of 650 trees, aggregated into 23 plots in a single forest patch, (2) 17 manually measured forest plots in two floodplains. PP consists of a series of digital photographic images of vegetation against a contrasting background. The centre columns of all images were merged into a single composite parallel image. This mosaic was thresholded to determine the fractional coverage of the vegetation, which is converted to vegetation density using the optical point quadrat method. A sensitivity analysis proved that PP is insensitive to small errors on the selected number of centre columns, photograph spacing should not exceed 20 cm, photograph resolution is important and the plot depth should be measured accurately. TLS was carried out using a Leica HDS3000 time‐of‐flight laser scanner. Data processing of TLS data consisted of slicing the points around breast height. In a polar grid the vegetation density was predicted using the optical point quadrat method, corrected for missing points. Both methods were compared to the field reference data. PP (EF = 0.99; bias = 8.4×10−5 m−1) showed a higher modelling efficiency than the TLS method (EF = 0.63; bias = 0.015 m−1). An advantage of the TLS method is the ability to provide a detailed 2‐dimensional or even 3‐dimensional distribution of vegetation density. PP is cheaper, faster, and data processing is limited. We conclude that TLS and PP are two complementary techniques that show high accuracies for field measurements of vegetation density.

Extracting structural characteristics of herbaceous floodplain vegetation under leaf-off conditions using airborne laser scanner data

Hydrodynamic models of river flow need detailed and accurate friction values as input. Friction values of floodplain vegetation are based on vegetation height and density. To map spatial patterns of floodplain vegetation structure, airborne laser scanning is a promising tool. In a test for the lower Rhine floodplain, vegetation height and density of herbaceous vegetation were measured in the field at 42 georeferenced plots of 200 m2 each. Simultaneously, three airborne laser scanning (ALS) surveys were carried out in the same area resulting in three high resolution, first pulse, small‐footprint datasets. The laser data surveys differed in flying height, gain setting and laser diode age. Point density of the laser data varied between 10 and 75 points m−2. Point heights relative to the DTM derived from the ALS data were used in all analyses. Laser points were labelled as either vegetation or ground using three different methods: (1) a fixed threshold value; (2) a flexible threshold value based on the inflection point in the point height distribution; and (3) using a Gaussian distribution to separate noise in the ground surface points from vegetation. Twenty‐one statistics were computed for each of the resulting vegetation‐point distributions, which were subsequently compared with field observations of vegetation height. Additionally, the percentage index (PI) was computed to relate density of vegetation points to hydrodynamic vegetation density. The vegetation height was best predicted by using the inflection method for labelling and the 95 percentile as a regressor (R 2 = 0.74–0.88). Vegetation density was best predicted using the threshold method for labelling and the PI as a predictor (R 2 = 0.51). The results of vegetation height prediction were found to depend on the combined effect of flying height, gain setting or laser diode age. The quality of the estimation of vegetation height and density is also affected by point density, for densities lower than 15 points m−2. We conclude that high resolution ALS data allows to estimate vegetation height and density of herbaceous vegetation in winter condition, but field reference data remains necessary for calibration.