Aureliano Angel Bressan

Investigating the Solvency of Brazilian Credit Unions Using a Proportional Hazard Model

Due to high interest rates and bank spreads, the number of credit unions in Brazil has increased over recent years. As financial institutions, these cooperatives need tools to signal impending financial problems. This paper focuses on one tool that can be used to evaluate credit union solvency: the Cox Proportional Hazards Model. A sample of 80 credit unions from the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais was selected to supply data. The analysis period is between December 2001 and June 2003. The results indicate that the relevant indicators for insolvency prediction are, in descending order of predictive ability, General Liquidity, Salary and Benefit Expenses, and the LoansEquity Ratio. In general, results produced using the delineated theoretical model were in consonance with international literature. Copyright CIRIEC, 2006.

Tomada de decisão em futuros agropecuários com modelos de previsão de séries temporais

This research deals with the usefulness of times series models as a tool for buy and sell decisions of the Brazilian BM&F future contracts, in dates nearby the expiration. The models considered were ARIMA, Artificial Neural Networks and Dynamic Linear Models. The data corresponds to the weekly quotations of coffee, soybeans and live cattle prices in the spot and futures markets, between 1996 and 1999. The main objective is to calculate the medium returns of each model in buy and sell operations, in way to provide an indication of the potentials or limitations of each one, using the Sharpe Index as a comparison tool. The results indicate the financial returns are positive in most of the analyzed contracts, indicating the potential use of those models in negotiations of contracts for dates close to expiration, with prominence for operations based in the forecasts of the ARIMA and Dynamic Linear Models.

Sistemas de equações de demanda por carnes no Brasil: especificação e estimação

We use alternative specifications of the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) to estimate the aggregate demand in Brazil for beef, pork, chicken, other consumption goods, and their elasticities. We detect the need for using time trend variables in models’ equations so that we found an upward trend for the demand of each type of meat and a downward trend for other consumption goods. The dummy variable for the prices stabilization macroeconomic Real Plan indicated it has not changed demands. According to Marshallian own-price elasticities, meat demands are inelastic and demand for other consumption goods is elastic. Cross-price Marshallian and Hicksian elasticities confirm beef, pork and chicken are substitutes. Expenditure elasticities show that all goods are normal, except for pork, which is an inferior good. As personal consumption expenditure is likely to increase over time, ceteris paribus, meat consumption will lose importance to other consumption goods, beef consumption will lose importance to chicken and pork consumption will lose importance to the other two types of meat.

Análise do risco de insolvência pelo modelo de cox: uma aplicação prática

Insolvency prediction is an important issue for the banking sector and, for this reason, has been studied by many researchers. Aiming to corroborate these studies, this paper evaluates the financial profile of the agricultural credit cooperatives in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, between 1998 and 2001, trying to verify if the changes that affected the banking sector in Brazil after the Real plan in 1994 had also affected the analyzed cooperatives. The proportional hazard model of Cox (Cox, 1972) was applied to evaluate the insolvency risk. The definition of insolvency adopted is associated to the failure of the cooperative, negative equity and/or 40% of negative final results. The estimates indicate that the most important indicators to evaluate the relative risk of insolvency were the “general liquidity”, “short-term liquidity” and “personnel fees”. Only 1 cooperative, between the 107 analyzed, was in the insolvency risk range determined by the model.

Brazilian Credit Union Member Groups: Borrower-dominated, Saver-dominated or Neutral Behavior?

Abstract Theoretical models concerning Credit Unions (CUs) suggest that the type of CU domination determines the way it allocates the monetary value it generates. A borrower- (saver-) dominated CU benefits borrower (saver) members at the expenses of saver (borrower) members, and a neutral CU equally benefits its member groups. This paper applies direct measure of monetary benefits to each member group (Patin & McNiel, 1991a) to test for the existence of dominated behavior in Brazilian CUs, and is the first to apply panel data regressions to identify the determinants of CUs behavior. We use a unique panel data with 40,664 observations taken from 533 CUs affiliated with the largest Brazilian cooperative network. Results indicate Brazilian CUs are dominated by borrowers, but behave close to neutrality. Panel regression estimates show that common or multiple bond type, size and overdue loans of a CU have no effect on its behavior, the greater the total amount of loans over social capital and adjusted equity over total assets are the more likely a CU is borrower dominated, and the greater the age and current operational expenses over total asset of a CU are the more likely a CU is saver dominated.

Análise dos determinantes do endividamento das empresas de capital aberto do agronegócio brasileiro

Studies involving capital structure and the identification of its determinants are relevant issues in the field of corporate finance management research. In this regard, the present study intends to evaluate the determinants of corporate leverage in the Brazilian agribusiness sector using the model of Rajan and Zingales (1995). In the definition of the sample there were selected 26 companies that are classified in one of three subdivisions of the Brazilian agribusiness sector: a) the agriculture or cattle raising; b) inputs or production factors and c) processing and distribution sector, using as reference the CNA classification. The study used data from the Economatica® database, with the adoption of panel data methods. The results indicated that the variables tangibility of assets, growth opportunities, size and profitability were statiscally significant as determinant factors of the debt structure of Brazilian agribusiness companies. It is also possible to conclude that the model estimated by panel data generated results that are compatible with those suggested by the pecking order theory.

O seguro depósito induz ao risco moral nas cooperativas de crédito brasileiras?: um estudo com dados em painel

Conflicting interests and imperfect monitoring can induce financial institutions covered by the deposit insurance to run into more risk than the level aimed by its fund administrator. We test if the establishment of the deposit insurance (FGS) of the Brazilian Cooperative Credit System (Sicoob) did not induce moral hazard. We use a panel composed of monthly data for 180 credit unions (61.43% of cooperatives affiliated to Sicoob). Panel data models’ estimates using the Basel index as proxy for the risk exposure of cooperatives indicate that the FGS induced the moral hazard problem.

Condicionantes do crescimento dos fundos mútuos de renda fixa no Brasil

The aim of this research was to identify the determinants of the development of the fixed income mutual funds in Brazil through the study of net money flows, from February 1995 to September 2004. The data were analyzed by multiple regression analysis of monthly series. Looking for robustness of the results, the classic OLS estimators were compared with restricted M-estimators. The significant determinants were: the excess of return in relation to the savings account rate, the growth of the per capita GDP, the lower interest rates and the less volatility or risk. The introduction of valuation at market prices for fixed income assets, in circumstances of instability in the national and international markets motivated important withdraws in 2002. Furthermore, for investors of exclusive funds were identified indicators of larger sophistication. These results permit to define strategies for managing these institutions.

Análise do "efeito tamanho" nos retornos das ações de empresas listadas na Bovespa

This study analyzes the performance of stocks listed on Bovespa - the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange - between 03/17/1998 and 08/03/2004. First, stationarity was tested in order to check whether these stocks followed the random walk model. The results showed that all returns were stationary. In relation to prices, 90% of all stock prices revealed a unit root, that is, they followed the random walk model at level. The other 10% were rarely traded. These findings suggest that the Brazilian stock market is efficient in its weak form. Then, the efficiency of the Brazilian market in its semi-strong form was also tested in terms of the firms size, by estimating a conditional CAPM. The traditional proxy used to measure a firms size is the market value. However, other size proxies like book value and profit were also used. The results revealed that, independently of the proxy used, no size portfolio was capable of obtaining systematically abnormal returns. Finally, a significant correlation was found between beta and size only when book value is used as a size proxy. Nevertheless, its coefficients were low and their signals were inconsistent. In general terms, these results suggest that the Brazilian market is also efficient in its semi-strong form.

Previsão não-linear de retornos na BOVESPA: volume negociado em um modelo auto-regressivo de transição suave

In this study, the predictive power of a logistic smooth transition auto regression model (LSTAR) in generating statistically significant returns is evaluated when the transition variable is trading volume and the lagged return itself, for the Sao Paulo Stock Exchanges Ibovespa Index, with the analysis based on daily data between 1996 and 2006. The reason for the inclusion of trading volume is found in some market characteristics and behavioral finance results, which indicate the existence of a negative relationship between trading volume and future returns. The model shows a good adjustment to the data, although it does not have the ability to generate additional profits if the transaction costs are of 0.5% per trade. For lower costs there is some predictive power, though lower than a AR(1) model and an buy and hold strategy. Considering the risk, for transaction costs of 0.035% per trade, the autoregressive model allowed a Sharpe index 20% bigger than the buy and hold strategy.