Marcelo José Braga

Redes, alianças estratégicas e intercooperação: o caso da cadeia produtiva de carne bovina

The objective of this paper is to discuss the formation of partnerships, networks and strategic alliances in the production chain of Brazilian beef. The basic concepts of networks, strategic alliances and, cooperation are discussed. Four cases of alliances are analyzed, based on the existent literature. Finally, the work is finished pointing the success reasons in an alliance.

Sistemas de equações de demanda por carnes no Brasil: especificação e estimação

We use alternative specifications of the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) to estimate the aggregate demand in Brazil for beef, pork, chicken, other consumption goods, and their elasticities. We detect the need for using time trend variables in models’ equations so that we found an upward trend for the demand of each type of meat and a downward trend for other consumption goods. The dummy variable for the prices stabilization macroeconomic Real Plan indicated it has not changed demands. According to Marshallian own-price elasticities, meat demands are inelastic and demand for other consumption goods is elastic. Cross-price Marshallian and Hicksian elasticities confirm beef, pork and chicken are substitutes. Expenditure elasticities show that all goods are normal, except for pork, which is an inferior good. As personal consumption expenditure is likely to increase over time, ceteris paribus, meat consumption will lose importance to other consumption goods, beef consumption will lose importance to chicken and pork consumption will lose importance to the other two types of meat.

Análise do risco de insolvência pelo modelo de cox: uma aplicação prática

Insolvency prediction is an important issue for the banking sector and, for this reason, has been studied by many researchers. Aiming to corroborate these studies, this paper evaluates the financial profile of the agricultural credit cooperatives in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, between 1998 and 2001, trying to verify if the changes that affected the banking sector in Brazil after the Real plan in 1994 had also affected the analyzed cooperatives. The proportional hazard model of Cox (Cox, 1972) was applied to evaluate the insolvency risk. The definition of insolvency adopted is associated to the failure of the cooperative, negative equity and/or 40% of negative final results. The estimates indicate that the most important indicators to evaluate the relative risk of insolvency were the “general liquidity”, “short-term liquidity” and “personnel fees”. Only 1 cooperative, between the 107 analyzed, was in the insolvency risk range determined by the model.

Oferta de exportação de carne de frango do Brasil, de 1992 a 2007

Palavras-chave: Exportacao, carne de frango, Modelos VAR. Abstract: The objective of this study is to analyze the determinants of chicken meat export supply in the period from 1992 to 2007, when the industry acquired more representativeness in the Brazilian shipments. The theoretical approach is based on the ratios between supply and demand. The econometric model is based on the Johansens procedure and the Error Correction Vector (VEC). Results show that the Brazilian price and the domestic income have significant impact on the Brazilian chicken meat exports, leading to a negative effect on the shipped volume. The international price presents significant and positive impacts on the amount exported.

Poder de mercado das exportações de farelo de soja: uma análise via demanda residual

The objective of this paper was to verify the market power of the Argentinean, Brazilian and American exports of soymeal to the European Union, the main consumer market of this commodity. For that, the article is based on the methodology of residual demand. Using the methods Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR), Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) and Three-Stage Least Squares (3SLS), the results indicated that, though this segment is concentrated by Argentina, Brazil and the United States, none of these countries presented market power for soymeal exports. In other words, they are not able to change soymeal prices without to decrease the exports

Qual a direção da convergência na produtividade da mão de obra na agropecuária de Minas Gerais

his study aims to investigate if there is a convergence process of labor productivity in the agricultural sector of Minas Gerais State over the period 1970 to 2006, and in which regions of low agricultural productivity the gap in relation to the regions with high agricultural productivity has been reducing. For this purpose, the state is disaggregated into municipalities, and as testing methodologies are used density distribution and a first order Markov process in its discrete and continuous versions. The results show that the distributions of productivity of municipalities have suffered mass displacement to the left, indicating a worsening in it and its dynamics of development showed a process of convergence towards the lower classes of productivity.

Delimitação de mercado relevante de gasolina comum e álcool hidratado nas regiões brasileiras: uma análise via testes econométricos

This paper attempts to establish the relevant product market for liquid fuels (regular gasoline and hydrated ethanol) in regions of Brazil, from January 2002 to December 2008. To this end, we use unit root and cointegration, variance decomposition of forecast errors and Granger causality tests. The cointegration test results reveal that the two fuels compete with each other in regional markets. Changes in the prices of any of them can produce substitution, so that price shocks are only transitory. It was found that the trend in gasoline prices is explained largely by its own changes and has relatively high explanatory power for the variability of the prediction error decomposition of hydrated ethanol, and that this trend is gradually increasing over the months. In addition, the price of regular gasoline Granger-causes the price of hydrated ethanol. However, the opposite is not true.

A CONSTRUÇÃO CIVIL EM MINAS GERAIS: CARACTERIZAÇÃO GERAL, CONCENTRAÇÃO INDUSTRIAL, BARREIRAS À ENTRADA E DESEMPENHO ECONÔMICO

O presente artigo objetiva analisar aspectos da estrutura industrial da construcao civil em Minas Gerais. Em particular, investiga-se a concentracao de mercado e a margem preco-custo, com vistas a entender a dinâmica competitiva setorial no periodo mais recente. O conhecimento da organizacao industrial do setor e importante para a atuacao das empresas ja existentes e para as potencialmente entrantes no mercado, como tambem para a intervencao governamental por meio de politicas publicas mais adequadas a realidade das atividades construtivas locais. O estudo se baseia no paradigma Estrutura-Conduta-Desempenho e utiliza o metodo empirico proposto por McCloughan e Abounoori (2003) para estimar a concentracao industrial. Sao fornecidas evidencias empiricas sobre o grau e a evolucao da concentracao de mercado por segmento de atividade componente no periodo 1996-2005. Os resultados obtidos apontam para um elevado grau de concentracao na construcao civil mineira e ganhos de lucratividade no periodo.