Moisés de Andrade Resende Filho

Brazilian Credit Union Member Groups: Borrower-dominated, Saver-dominated or Neutral Behavior?

Abstract Theoretical models concerning Credit Unions (CUs) suggest that the type of CU domination determines the way it allocates the monetary value it generates. A borrower- (saver-) dominated CU benefits borrower (saver) members at the expenses of saver (borrower) members, and a neutral CU equally benefits its member groups. This paper applies direct measure of monetary benefits to each member group (Patin & McNiel, 1991a) to test for the existence of dominated behavior in Brazilian CUs, and is the first to apply panel data regressions to identify the determinants of CUs behavior. We use a unique panel data with 40,664 observations taken from 533 CUs affiliated with the largest Brazilian cooperative network. Results indicate Brazilian CUs are dominated by borrowers, but behave close to neutrality. Panel regression estimates show that common or multiple bond type, size and overdue loans of a CU have no effect on its behavior, the greater the total amount of loans over social capital and adjusted equity over total assets are the more likely a CU is borrower dominated, and the greater the age and current operational expenses over total asset of a CU are the more likely a CU is saver dominated.

Water Pricing in Brazil: Successes, Failures, and New Approaches

Brazil is marked by its vastness and contrast in terms of availability and access to water. We select and provide a description of the water pricing experiences in place during the past 15 years at the Doce, Verde Grande, Paraiba do Sul, Piracicaba-Capivari-Jundiai (PCJ), and Sao Francisco River basins, which are under federal jurisdiction and, thus, under the responsibility of the Brazilian National Water Agency (Agencia Nacional de Aguas-ANA). The pioneer pricing system of the Paraiba do Sul River basin has been a reference for others throughout Brazil. Generally, water users are charged for water withdrawal and consumption and for effluent discharge in terms of quantity and concentration of Oxygen Biologic Demand per m3. While ANA is responsible as the federal agency in charge, local basin committees were empowered and make the ultimate decision on setting basic unit prices for water, adjustment coefficients, and granting water permits.

Determinantes do Risco de Crédito Rural no Brasil: Uma Crítica às Renegociações da Dívida Rural

Identificamos os determinantes da inadimplencia no Sistema Nacional de CreditoRural do Brasil, utilizando o procedimento ARDL defasagens distribuidastestes de limites para cointegracao de Pesaran, Shin & Smith (2001) e testes decausalidade de Granger de Toda & Yamamoto (1995). Os resultados mostraramque taxa de juros de referencia, setor externo e ciclo de negocios nao afetaminadimplencia; maior razao precos pagos por precos recebidos pela agriculturaaumenta inadimplencia; os processos politicos de renegociacao da divida ruralinduzem endividamento, risco moral e selecao adversa; e a relacao inadimplenciae determinantes retorna ao equilibrio de longo prazo em 19 dias.

Análise do impacto da alteração normativa na aposentadoria por invalidez no Brasil

Investiga-se a resposta dos servidores publicos federais a regras mais restritivas nas aposentadorias por invalidez, introduzidas pela Emenda Constitucional no 41/2003 (EC 41/2003). Inicialmente, investigam-se potenciais alteracoes nas condicoes de saude dos brasileiros de modo a especular sobre seus efeitos na utilizacao de beneficios por invalidez no Brasil. Em seguida, os resultados dessa investigacao inicial sao utilizados na definicao das variaveis de controle dos modelos econometrico utilizados para comparar o comportamento dos servidores publicos (grupo tratado) com o dos trabalhadores do setor privado (grupo controle) em termos do numero e incidencia de aposentadorias por invalidez. Com base nas estimativas de diferenca em diferencas (DD), conclui-se que os servidores publicos responderam aos incentivos criados com as novas regras, evitando a aposentadoria por invalidez e, assim, mitigando o problema de risco moral da Previdencia Social.

Systems dynamics model for decision support in risk assessment in software projects

Project management is widely studied and has several tools that aid in the efficiency and effectiveness of software production. However, in project management, numerous risk factors are involved in the development of software. These risk factors interact in a dynamic and non‐linear way, hindering decision‐making. The objective of this paper is to present a model of systems dynamics, which is a descriptive technique used for modeling and simulating systems, involving risk factors that strongly influence the development of software. The model generated is a tool that aims to assist project managers in their decision‐making. The relationships between variables were extracted from actual or empirical experiments available in the literature, thus bringing the model results closer to the real world. The model enables reproducing scenarios in which real‐world tests would be costly or dangerous to be carried out, allowing the impacts of risks in software development process to be analyzed. Copyright

An application of the PEARLS system to Brazilian credit unions

The main objective of this study was to adapt the indicators of the PEARLS system to Brazilian reality and to estimate the probability of insolvency of the credit unions affiliated with Sicoob (the Brazilian Credit Unions System). With this in mind, a Logit model was estimated using a database with 35,485 observations obtained from a sample of 510 cooperatives affiliated with Sicoob from January 2000 to June 2008. The results obtained showed the relevance of indicators in the following key areas (using the original nomenclature of the system), which appear to be the most important for the analysis of the insolvency of the studied cooperatives: Protection, Effective financial structure, Assets quality, and Rates of return and costs.