Aurélie Botta

Effects of large-scale changes in land cover on the discharge of the Tocantins River, Southeastern Amazonia

Studies that relate changes in land cover with changes in river discharge at the small scale ( 100 km2) usually have not found similar relationships. Here we analyse a 50-year long time series of discharge of a tropical river, the Tocantins River at Porto Nacional (175,360 km2), as well as precipitation over this drainage area, during a period where substantial changes in land cover occurred in the basin (1949–1998). Based on agricultural census data, we estimate that, in 1960, about 30% of the basin was used for agriculture. Previous work indicates that by 1995, agriculture had increased substantially, with about 49% of the basin land used as cropland and pastures. Initially, we compare one period with little changes in land cover (period 1-1949–1968) with another with more intense changes in land cover (period 2-1979–1998). Our analysis indicates that, while precipitation over the basin is not statistically different between period 1 and period 2 (α=0.05), annual mean discharge in period 2 is 24% greater than in period 1 (P<0.02), and the high-flow season discharge is greater by 28% (P<0.01). Further analyses present additional evidence that the change in vegetation cover altered the hydrological response of this region. As the pressure for changes in land cover in that region continue to increase, one can expect important further changes in the hydrological regime of the Tocantins River.

Possible role of atmosphere‐biosphere interactions in triggering the Last Glaciation

We coupled a global biome model iteratively with an atmospheric general circulation model to study the possible role of vegetation in the climate system, at the time of glacial inception 115,000 years ago. Orbital forcing alone was not sufficient to initiate glaciation when other components of the climate system were kept as present (atmospheric composition, oceans, biosphere and cryosphere). Summers were however cold enough to induce major vegetation shifts in high northern latitudes. Southward migration of the boreal forest/tundra limit helped to create favourable conditions for continental ice-sheet growth, with increasing snow depth and duration in Labrador, Arctic Canada and northern/western Fennoscandia. These results support a role for biogeophysical feedback in initiating glaciations.

Long‐term simulations of discharge and floods in the Amazon Basin

[i] A terrestrial ecosystem model (integrated biosphere simulator (IBIS)) and a hydrological routing algorithm (HYDRA) are used in conjunction with long time series climate data to simulate the river discharge and flooded area of the Amazon/ Tocantins River basin over the last 60 years. Evaluating the results of this modeling exercise over the entire basin yields three major results: (1) Observations at 121 stations throughout the basin show that discharge is well simulated for most tributaries originating in Brazil. However, the discharge is consistently underestimated, by greater than 20%, for tributaries draining regions outside of Brazil and the main stem of the Amazon. The discharge underestimation is most likely a result of underestimated precipitation in the data set used as model input. (2) A new flooding algorithm within HYDRA captures the magnitude and timing of the river height and flooded area in relatively good agreement with observations, particularly downstream of the confluence of the Negro and Solimoes Rivers. (3) Climatic variability strongly impacts the hydrology of the basin. Specifically, we find that short (∼3-4 years) and long (∼28 years) modes of precipitation variability drive spatial and temporal variability in river discharge and flooded area throughout the Amazon/Tocantins River basins.