B. J. Devenish

Operational prediction of ash concentrations in the distal volcanic cloud from the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption

[1] During the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajokull, improvements were made to the modeling procedure at the Met Office, UK, enabling peak ash concentrations within the volcanic cloud to be estimated. In this paper we describe the ash concentration forecasting method, its rationale and how it evolved over time in response to new information and user requirements. The change from solely forecasting regions of ash to also estimating peak ash concentrations required consideration of volcanic ash emission rates, the fraction of ash surviving near-source fall-out, and the relationship between predicted mean and local peak ash concentrations unresolved by the model. To validate the modeling procedure, predicted peak ash concentrations are compared against observations obtained by ground-based and research aircraft instrumentation. This comparison between modeled and observed peak concentrations highlights the many sources of error and the uncertainties involved. Despite the challenges of predicting ash concentrations, the ash forecasting method employed here is found to give useful guidance on likely ash concentrations. Predicted peak ash concentrations lie within about one and a half orders of magnitude of the observed peak concentrations. A significant improvement in the agreement between modeled and observed values is seen if a buffer zone, accounting for positional errors in the predicted ash cloud, is used. Sensitivity of the predicted ash concentrations to the source properties (e.g., the plume height and the vertical distribution of ash at the source) is assessed and in some cases, seemingly minor uncertainties in the source specification have a large effect on predicted ash concentrations.

Large-eddy simulation of a buoyant plume in uniform and stably stratified environments

We consider large-eddy simulation (LES) of buoyant plumes in uniform and stably stratified environments. We show that in the former case the results agree well with the simple plume model of Morton, Taylor & Turner ( Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A, vol. 234, 1956, p. 1). In particular, we calculate an entrainment constant which is consistent with laboratory and field measurements and find no significant difference between the radial spreading rates of vertical velocity and buoyancy. In a stably stratified environment, the LES plume shows better agreement with Morton et al . (1956) below the level at which the buoyancy first vanishes than above this level. Above the level of neutral buoyancy, the LES plume is characterized by an ascending core of negative buoyancy surrounded by a descending annulus of positive buoyancy. We compare the LES data with the model of Bloomfield & Kerr ( J. Fluid Mech. , vol. 424, 2000, p. 197), which explicitly accounts for these coherent motions. The model exhibits many qualitative aspects of the LES plume and quantitative agreement can be improved by adjusting the downward volume flux relative to the upward volume flux in a manner consistent with the LES plume. This simple adjustment, along with revised values of the entrainment constants, represents the combined effects of an overturning region at the top of the plume (where a fluid element reverses direction), ‘plume-top’ entrainment (whereby the plume entrains ambient fluid above the plume) as well as lateral entrainment and detrainment processes (both external and internal) occurring above the top of the model plume.

Using plume rise schemes to model highly buoyant plumes from large fires

The atmospheric dispersion model Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME) is used to simulate the smoke plume from the explosion at the Buncefield oil depot. Simple modelling, in which the plume rise is included through an effective elevated source term, captures the transport and spread of the plume well. More complex modelling, using the NAME plume rise scheme, underestimates the plume rise and plume vertical spread. We consider a number of potential reasons for this underprediction and compare NAME predictions against large-eddy simulations (LES) of the plume.

A Model for Temperature Fluctuations in a Buoyant Plume

We present a hybrid Lagrangian stochastic model for buoyant plume rise from an isolated source that includes the effects of temperature fluctuations. The model is based on that of Webster and Thomson (Atmos Environ 36:5031–5042, 2002) in that it is a coupling of a classical plume model in a crossflow with stochastic differential equations for the vertical velocity and temperature (which are themselves coupled). The novelty lies in the addition of the latter stochastic differential equation. Parametrizations of the plume turbulence are presented that are used as inputs to the model. The root-mean-square temperature is assumed to be proportional to the difference between the centreline temperature of the plume and the ambient temperature. The constant of proportionality is tuned by comparison with equivalent statistics from large-eddy simulations (LES) of buoyant plumes in a uniform crossflow and linear stratification. We compare plume trajectories for a wide range of crossflow velocities and find that the model generally compares well with the equivalent LES results particularly when added mass is included in the model. The exception occurs when the crossflow velocity component becomes very small. Comparison of the scalar concentration, both in terms of the height of the maximum concentration and its vertical spread, shows similar behaviour. The model is extended to allow for realistic profiles of ambient wind and temperature and the results are compared with LES of the plume that emanated from the explosion and fire at the Buncefield oil depot in 2005.