Benjamin Brown-Steiner

Resilient but not sustainable? Public perceptions of shale gas development via hydraulic fracturing

Complex energy development, such as associated with extraction and processing of shale gas, may affect the future sustainability and resilience of the small, often rural communities where development occurs. A difficulty for understanding the connection between sustainability, resilience, and shale gas development (hereafter “SGD”) is that definitions of sustainability and resilience are often muddled and unclear. Nevertheless, the ways in which development could affect sustainability and resilience have been discussed and contested in academic literature. Little is known, however, about the general public’s thoughts on how SGD relates to sustainability and resilience. Despite the overlap and conflation of these two concepts, research indicates some differences between characterizations of the two. While acknowledging difficulties in defining the terms, we included questions on a few broad attributes of the two concepts in a survey (n=1202) of a random sample of residents in the Marcellus Shale region of NY and PA, to explore the relationship between support for / opposition to SGD and perceived importance of community sustainability and resilience. Our survey revealed that beliefs about the importance of sustainability, as measured by three items that clearly pool together as a single factor, are associated with opposition to SGD; beliefs about the importance of resilience, measured by four clearly-connected items, are associated with support for SGD. This finding is particularly intriguing and relevant for communication and policy about sustainability and resilience in connection with energy development, because of the common conflation of the two terms.

Description and Evaluation of the MIT Earth System Model (MESM)

Author(s): Sokolov, A; Kicklighter, D; Schlosser, A; Wang, C; Monier, E; Brown-Steiner, B; Prinn, R; Forest, C; Gao, X; Libardoni, A; Eastham, S | Abstract: ©2018. The Authors. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) is designed for analyzing the global environmental changes that may result from anthropogenic causes, quantifying the uncertainties associated with the projected changes, and assessing the costs and environmental effectiveness of proposed policies to mitigate climate risk. The IGSM consists of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Earth System Model (MESM) of intermediate complexity and the Economic Projections and Policy Analysis model. This paper documents the current version of the MESM, which includes a two-dimensional (zonally averaged) atmospheric model with interactive chemistry coupled to the zonally averaged version of Global Land System model and an anomaly-diffusing ocean model.

Public perception of the relationship between climate change and unconventional gas in the US

ABSTRACT ‘Fracking’, or unconventional gas development via hydraulic fracturing (hereafter ‘UGD’), has been closely tied to global climate change in academic discourse. Researchers have debated the life cycle emissions of shale gas versus coal, rates of methane leakage from wellhead production and transmission infrastructure, the extent to which coal would be displaced by gas as a source of energy, the appropriate time-scale for accounting for the global warming potentials of methane and carbon dioxide, surface versus airborne methane measurements, and the effect of lowered energy prices on gas consumption. Little research, however, has examined the degree to which these potential connections between UGD and climate change are relevant to the general public. This article presents two surveys, one of a representative national (US) sample and one of a representative sample of residents in the Marcellus Shale region of Pennsylvania and New York. It examines whether respondents associated UGD with climate change, and the relationship between this association and their support for, or opposition to, UGD. The results reveal that beliefs about many other potential impacts of UGD explain more variation in support and opposition than do beliefs about UGD’s association with climate change. Furthermore, most other impacts of UGD are viewed as having more effect on quality of life if they were to occur, at least amongst the Marcellus Shale survey sample. The article concludes with implications of the findings for policy and communication on UGD. Key policy insights Public opinion about unconventional gas development (UGD or ‘fracking’) is affected less by beliefs about its impact on global climate change, than about several other more local factors. Communication tailored to increase awareness of UGD’s impacts would likely be most effective when focusing on the local level, as opposed to national or global impacts. Messaging about UGD’s relationship with carbon emissions would have more effect in national-level discourse, as opposed to messaging targeted at communities experiencing or potentially experiencing development. To maintain credibility and societal trust, communication on the global climate impacts of UGD needs to be informative but non-persuasive.