Benjamin E. Hilbig

Multinomial processing tree models: A review of the literature.

Multinomial processing tree (MPT) models have become popular in cognitive psychology in the past two decades. In contrast to general-purpose data analysis techniques, such as log-linear models or other generalized linear models, MPT models are substantively motivated stochastic models for categorical data. They are best described as tools (a) for measuring the cognitive processes that underlie human behavior in various tasks and (b) for testing the psychological assumptions on which these models are based. The present article provides a review of MPT models and their applications in psychology, focusing on recent trends and developments in the past 10 years. Our review is nontechnical in nature and primarily aims at informing readers about the scope and utility of MPT models in different branches of cognitive psychology. In a now classical article, Riefer and Batchelder (1988) proposed a class of substantively motivated stochastic mod- els for categorical behavioral data which was relatively well known in statistical genetics at the time (e.g., Elandt- Johnson, 1971), but had received little attention in psycho- logical research up to the 1980s. These models are now known as multinomial processing tree (MPT) models. About 10 years later, Batchelder and Riefer (1999) already identified no less than 30 published MPT models in the psychological literature, most of which were applied to different agendas in cognitive research. The present article provides an update of Batchelder and Riefers review and focuses on models and their applications published in the past 10 years. Our review includes 70 MPT models and model variants from more than 20 research areas. In the first section, we will present a brief conceptual outline of MPT models using a simple example to illustrate the basics and main advantages of this approach. Technical details will be omitted almost entirely because they have been described elsewhere (e.g., Batchelder & Riefer, 1999; Hu & Batchelder, 1994). The second section sum- marizes MPT models and their applications in different branches of cognitive psychology, with a special focus on models for various memory paradigms. In the third sec- tion, psychological applications of MPT models outside the realm of cognitive psychology will be briefly summarized. The fourth section describes recent developments, general- izations, and innovations in the statistical methodology of MPT models that might be useful for those interested in applying such models. The fifth and final section of our review provides a sketch of computer programs that are currently available for statistical analyses in the MPT framework, along with a summary of the main advantages of each program.

Ignorance- versus evidence-based decision making: A decision time analysis of the recognition heuristic.

According to part of the adaptive toolbox notion of decision making known as the recognition heuristic (RH), the decision process in comparative judgments-and its duration-is determined by whether recognition discriminates between objects. By contrast, some recently proposed alternative models predict that choices largely depend on the amount of evidence speaking for each of the objects and that decision times thus depend on the evidential difference between objects, or the degree of conflict between options. This article presents 3 experiments that tested predictions derived from the RH against those from alternative models. All experiments used naturally recognized objects without teaching participants any information and thus provided optimal conditions for application of the RH. However, results supported the alternative, evidence-based models and often conflicted with the RH. Recognition was not the key determinant of decision times, whereas differences between objects with respect to (both positive and negative) evidence predicted effects well. In sum, alternative models that allow for the integration of different pieces of information may well provide a better account of comparative judgments.

Honesty–humility and a person–situation interaction at work

Person–situation interactions have attracted researchers’ attention for decades. Likewise, the current work focuses on the interaction of honesty–humility and situational conditions in bringing about counterproductive work behaviour (CWB). As such, we introduce perceptions of organizational politics as a situational construct representing an opportunity for CWB. In a sample of N = 148 employees we found that particularly individuals low in honesty–humility were affected by situational circumstances. By contrast, those high in honesty–humility reported practically the same (lower) amount of CWB independent of the level of perceptions of organizational politics. In other words, employees low in honesty–humility were especially likely to condition their behaviour on environmental factors, a result that mirrors previous findings. Copyright

Recognizing Users of the Recognition Heuristic

The recognition heuristic is hypothesized to be a frugal inference strategy assuming that inferences are based on the recognition cue alone. This assumption, however, has been questioned by existing research. At the same time most studies rely on the proportion of choices consistent with the heuristic as a measure of its use which may not be fully appropriate. In this study, we propose an index to identify true users of the heuristic contrasting them to decision makers who incorporate further knowledge beyond recognition. The properties and the applicability of the proposed index are investigated in the reanalyses of four published experiments and corroborated by a new study drawn up to rectify the shortcomings of the reanalyzed experiments. Applying the proposed index to explore the influence of knowledge we found that participants who were more knowledgeable made use of the information available to them and achieved the highest proportion of correct inferences.

One-reason decision-making unveiled: A measurement model of the recognition heuristic

The fast-and-frugal recognition heuristic (RH) theory provides a precise process description of comparative judgments. It claims that, in suitable domains, judgments between pairs of objects are based on recognition alone, whereas further knowledge is ignored. However, due to the confound between recognition and further knowledge, previous research lacked an unbiased measure of RH use. Also, model comparisons have not been based on goodness-of-fit and model complexity as criteria. To overcome both limitations we introduce and test a multinomial processing tree model showing that it fits empirical data and provides an unbiased measure of RH use. Analyses of 8 data sets reveal that the RH alone cannot account for the data, not even when it is implemented in a probabilistic way. That is, information integration beyond recognition plays a vital role and cannot merely account for empirical data better due to model flexibility. Also, we present several validations of the central model parameter and provide demonstrations of how the model can be applied to study the less-is-more effect as well as determinants of (and individual differences in) RH use. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved).

Personality, Punishment and Public Goods: Strategic Shifts Towards Cooperation as a Matter of Dispositional Honesty-Humility: Personality, punishment and public goods

Contributions in the public goods game—a classical social dilemma situation—have been shown to depend strongly on the presence versus absence of punishment or sanctions for free riders. Also, there appear to be noteworthy individual differences in the degree to which decision makers cooperate. Herein, we aimed to bring these two lines of research together. Firstly, we predicted that both presence of punishment and high dispositional Honesty–Humility (as conceptualized in the Honesty–Humility, Emotionality, eXtraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, Openness to experience model of personality) should yield higher contributions. Secondly, and more importantly, we expected an interaction, such that only those low in Honesty–Humility would condition their behaviour on the presence versus absence of punishment, thus employing cooperation strategically. In line with the hypothesis, the results of two experiments (one of which comprised a longitudinal design) corroborated that the degree to which decision makers shift towards higher contributions when punishment is introduced depends on their dispositional level of Honesty–Humility. Copyright

Reconsidering "evidence" for fast-and-frugal heuristics

In several recent reviews, authors have argued for the pervasive use of fast-and-frugal heuristics in human judgment. They have provided an overview of heuristics and have reiterated findings corroborating that such heuristics can be very valid strategies leading to high accuracy. They also have reviewed previous work that implies that simple heuristics are actually used by decision makers. Unfortunately, concerning the latter point, these reviews appear to be somewhat incomplete. More important, previous conclusions have been derived from investigations that bear some noteworthy methodological limitations. I demonstrate these by proposing a new heuristic and provide some novel critical findings. Also, I review some of the relevant literature often not—or only partially—considered. Overall, although some fast-and-frugal heuristics indeed seem to predict behavior at times, there is little to no evidence for others. More generally, the empirical evidence available does not warrant the conclusion that heuristics are pervasively used.

Rethinking Trait Conceptions of Social Desirability Scales: Impression Management as an Expression of Honesty-Humility

Numerous researchers have noted that, instead of response sets or styles, most social desirability scales seem to measure personality traits instead. In two studies, we investigated the substantive interpretation of the Balanced Inventory of Desirable Responding in terms of the HEXACO model of personality. Because of its focus on honesty and integrity, the Impression Management (IM) scale was hypothesized to be mainly related to HEXACO Honesty-Humility. In the main study among 1,106 students and well-acquainted others (friends, family, or partners), positive self–other agreement correlations were found for both IM (r = .45) and Self-Deceptive Enhancement (SDE; r = .34), supporting a trait conception of IM and SDE. In both self- and other ratings, the most important predictors of SDE were (low) Emotionality, Extraversion, and Conscientiousness. IM was associated with Conscientiousness and Agreeableness, but Honesty-Humility was by far its most important predictor. In a subsample (n = 465), Honesty-Humility and IM were unrelated to GPA.

Tracing the Path from Personality — via Cooperativeness — to Conservation

Ecological behaviour is often conceptualized as an instance of cooperating in a social dilemma situation. Thus, it has been argued to relate to dispositional tendencies of moral virtue and pro–social orientation. To embed such notions in models of basic personality, we herein predicted that the recently proposed sixth basic personality factor, Honesty–Humility — which specifically pertains to individual differences in cooperativeness — is linked to environmental attitudes and ecological behaviour. Results from two studies (N = 137 and N = 531, respectively) supported these hypotheses and showed that Honesty–Humility explains incremental variance beyond the remaining, more classical five factors of personality. In addition, mediation analyses revealed that Honesty–Humility exerts part of its influence via individual differences in pro–social value orientations. Individual tendencies to cooperate in social dilemma situations could thus be shown to form a bridge between basic personality dimensions and ecological behaviour. Copyright

Processing differences between descriptions and experience: a comparative analysis using eye-tracking and physiological measures

Do decisions from description and from experience trigger different cognitive processes? We investigated this general question using cognitive modeling, eye-tracking, and physiological arousal measures. Three novel findings indeed suggest qualitatively different processes between the two types of decisions. First, comparative modeling indicates that evidence-accumulation models assuming averaging of all fixation-sampled outcomes predict choices best in decisions from experience, whereas Cumulative Prospect Theory predicts choices best in decisions from descriptions. Second, arousal decreased with increasing difference in expected value between gambles in description-based choices but not in experience. Third, the relation between attention and subjective weights given to outcomes was stronger for experience-based than for description-based tasks. Overall, our results indicate that processes in experience-based risky choice can be captured by sampling-and-averaging evidence-accumulation model. This model cannot be generalized to description-based decisions, in which more complex mechanisms are involved.