Benjamin P. Horton

Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia

We present new sea-level reconstructions for the past 2100 y based on salt-marsh sedimentary sequences from the US Atlantic coast. The data from North Carolina reveal four phases of persistent sea-level change after correction for glacial isostatic adjustment. Sea level was stable from at least BC 100 until AD 950. Sea level then increased for 400 y at a rate of 0.6 mm/y, followed by a further period of stable, or slightly falling, sea level that persisted until the late 19th century. Since then, sea level has risen at an average rate of 2.1 mm/y, representing the steepest century-scale increase of the past two millennia. This rate was initiated between AD 1865 and 1892. Using an extended semiempirical modeling approach, we show that these sea-level changes are consistent with global temperature for at least the past millennium.

Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods

Warming climate, melting ice, rising seas We know that the sea level will rise as climate warms. Nevertheless, accurate projections of how much sea-level rise will occur are difficult to make based solely on modern observations. Determining how ice sheets and sea level have varied in past warm periods can help us better understand how sensitive ice sheets are to higher temperatures. Dutton et al. review recent interdisciplinary progress in understanding this issue, based on data from four different warm intervals over the past 3 million years. Their synthesis provides a clear picture of the progress we have made and the hurdles that still exist. Science, this issue 10.1126/science.aaa4019 Reconstructing past magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise can help project what our warmer future may hold. BACKGROUND Although thermal expansion of seawater and melting of mountain glaciers have dominated global mean sea level (GMSL) rise over the last century, mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is expected to exceed other contributions to GMSL rise under future warming. To better constrain polar ice-sheet response to warmer temperatures, we draw on evidence from interglacial periods in the geologic record that experienced warmer polar temperatures and higher GMSLs than present. Coastal records of sea level from these previous warm periods demonstrate geographic variability because of the influence of several geophysical processes that operate across a range of magnitudes and time scales. Inferring GMSL and ice-volume changes from these reconstructions is nontrivial and generally requires the use of geophysical models. ADVANCES Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise. Advances in our understanding of polar ice-sheet response to warmer climates have been made through an increase in the number and geographic distribution of sea-level reconstructions, better ice-sheet constraints, and the recognition that several geophysical processes cause spatially complex patterns in sea level. In particular, accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to decipher spatial variability in coastal sea-level records and has reconciled a number of site-specific sea-level reconstructions for warm periods that have occurred within the past several hundred thousand years. This enables us to infer that during recent interglacial periods, small increases in global mean temperature and just a few degrees of polar warming relative to the preindustrial period resulted in ≥6 m of GMSL rise. Mantle-driven dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, affecting reconstructions for time periods such as the Pliocene (~3 million years ago), when atmospheric CO2 was ~400 parts per million (ppm), similar to that of the present. Both modeling and field evidence suggest that polar ice sheets were smaller during this time period, but because dynamic topography can cause tens of meters of vertical displacement at Earth’s surface on million-year time scales and uncertainty in model predictions of this signal are large, it is currently not possible to make a precise estimate of peak GMSL during the Pliocene. OUTLOOK Our present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past, but a number of challenges remain to further constrain ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change using paleo–sea level records. Improving our understanding of rates of GMSL rise due to polar ice-mass loss is perhaps the most societally relevant information the paleorecord can provide, yet robust estimates of rates of GMSL rise associated with polar ice-sheet retreat and/or collapse remain a weakness in existing sea-level reconstructions. Improving existing magnitudes, rates, and sources of GMSL rise will require a better (global) distribution of sea-level reconstructions with high temporal resolution and precise elevations and should include sites close to present and former ice sheets. Translating such sea-level data into a robust GMSL signal demands integration with geophysical models, which in turn can be tested through improved spatial and temporal sampling of coastal records. Further development is needed to refine estimates of past sea level from geochemical proxies. In particular, paired oxygen isotope and Mg/Ca data are currently unable to provide confident, quantitative estimates of peak sea level during these past warm periods. In some GMSL reconstructions, polar ice-sheet retreat is inferred from the total GMSL budget, but identifying the specific ice-sheet sources is currently hindered by limited field evidence at high latitudes. Given the paucity of such data, emerging geochemical and geophysical techniques show promise for identifying the sectors of the ice sheets that were most vulnerable to collapse in the past and perhaps will be again in the future. Peak global mean temperature, atmospheric CO2, maximum global mean sea level (GMSL), and source(s) of meltwater. Light blue shading indicates uncertainty of GMSL maximum. Red pie charts over Greenland and Antarctica denote fraction (not location) of ice retreat. Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo–sea level records.

Spatial variability of late Holocene and 20th century sea-level rise along the Atlantic coast of the United States

Accurate estimates of global sea-level rise in the pre-satellite era provide a context for 21 st century sea-level predictions, but the use of tide-gauge records is complicated by the contributions from changes in land level due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). We have constructed a rigorous quality-controlled database of late Holocene sea-level indices from the U.S. Atlantic coast, exhibiting subsidence rates of <0.8 mm a –1 in Maine, increasing to rates of 1.7 mm a –1 in Delaware, and a return to rates <0.9 mm a –1 in the Carolinas. This pattern can be attributed to ongoing GIA due to the demise of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Our data allow us to defi ne the geometry of the associated collapsing proglacial forebulge with a level of resolution unmatched by any other currently available method. The corresponding rates of relative sea-level rise serve as background rates on which future sea-level rise must be superimposed. We further employ the geological data to remove the GIA component from tide-gauge records to estimate a mean 20 th century sea-level rise rate for the U.S. Atlantic coast of 1.8 ± 0.2 mm a –1 , similar to the global average. However, we fia distinct spatial trend in the rate of 20 th century sea-level rise, increasing from Maine to South Carolina. This is the fi rst evidence of this phenomenon from observational data alone. We suggest this may be related to the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and/or ocean steric effects.

UK intertidal foraminiferal distributions: implications for sea-level studies

Foraminiferal assemblages have been collected from ten intertidal study areas situated on the east, south and west coasts of the UK. The assemblages display a vertical zonation which indicates that the distribution of foraminifera in these intertidal environments is usually the direct function of altitude with the duration and frequency of intertidal exposure the most important factors. Multivariate analyses separate foraminiferal assemblages into two faunal zones: a high- and middle marsh zone consisting of differing abundances of Jadammina macrescens, Trochammina inflata and Miliammina fusca; and a low-marsh and tidal flat zone dominated by calcareous foraminiferal species, notably Elphidium williamsoni, Haynesina germanica and Quinqueloculina spp. These faunal zones are similar to those in other mid-latitude, cool temperate intertidal environments although there are spatial and temporal variations between areas. The altitudinal ranges of the faunal zones are employed to identify the vertical relationship of the local environment in which the assemblage accumulated to a reference tide level.

The distribution of contemporary intertidal foraminifera at Cowpen Marsh, Tees Estuary, UK: implications for studies of Holocene sea-level changes

Abstract Foraminiferal assemblages were collected at 2-weekly intervals over a period of 12-months from the intertidal zone of Cowpen Marsh. Statistical analyses indicate that the foraminiferal distributions for this site are controlled predominantly by altitude. Furthermore, the contemporary foraminiferal assemblages from Cowpen Marsh broadly reflect vertical floral zones based on vascular plants. Cluster analysis separates foraminiferal assemblages into four zones: two high and middle marsh zones consisting of differing abundances of Jadammina macrescens and Trochammina inflata; a low marsh zone dominated by Jadammina macrescens and Miliammina fusca; and a mudflat zone dominated by calcareous foraminiferal species, notably, Elphidium williamsoni, Haynesina germanica and Quinqueloculina spp. The altitudinal ranges of the faunal zones are employed to identify the vertical relationship of the local environment in which the assemblage accumulated to a reference tide level.

Timing and magnitude of recent accelerated sea-level rise (North Carolina, United States)

We provide records of relative sea level since A.D. 1500 from two salt marshes in North Carolina to complement existing tide-gauge records and to determine when recent rates of accelerated sea-level rise commenced. Reconstructions were developed using foraminifera-based transfer functions and composite chronologies, which were validated against regional twentieth century tide-gauge records. The measured rate of relative sea-level rise in North Carolina during the twentieth century was 3.0–3.3 mm/a, consisting of a background rate of ~1 mm/a, plus an abrupt increase of 2.2 mm/a, which began between A.D. 1879 and 1915. This acceleration is broadly synchronous with other studies from the Atlantic coast. The magnitude of the acceleration at both sites is larger than at sites farther north along the U.S. and Canadian Atlantic coast and may be indicative of a latitudinal trend.

Modelling western North Sea palaeogeographies and tidal changes during the Holocene

Abstract Analysis of cores collected from Late Devensian (Weichselian) and Holocene sediments on the floor of the North Sea provides evidence of the transgression of freshwater environments during relative sea-level rise. Although many cores show truncated sequences, examples from the Dogger Bank, Well Bank and 5 km offshore of north Norfolk reveal transitional sequences and reliable indicators of past shoreline positions. Together with radiocarbon-dated sea-level index points collected from the Holocene sediments of the estuaries and coastal lowlands of eastern England these data enable the development and testing of models of the palaeogeographies of coastlines in the western North Sea and models of tidal range changes through the Holocene epoch. Geophysical models that incorporate ice-sheet reconstructions, earth rheology, eustasy, and glacio- and hydroisostasy provide predictions of sea-level relative to the present for the last 10 ka at 1-ka intervals. These predictions, added to a model of present-day bathymetry, produce palaeogeographic reconstructions for each time period. The palaeogeographic maps reveal the transgression of the North Sea continental shelf. Key stages include a western embayment off northeast England as early as 10 ka bp; the evolution of a large tidal embayment between eastern England and the Dogger Bank before 9 ka bp with connection to the English Channel prior to 8 ka bp; and Dogger Bank as an island at high tide by 7.5 ka bp and totally submerged by 6 ka bp. Analysis of core data shows that coastal and saltmarsh environments could adapt to rapid rates of sea-level rise and coastline retreat. After 6 ka bp the major changes in palaeogeography occurred inland of the present coast of eastern England. The palaeogeographic models provide the coastline positions and bathymetries for modelling tidal ranges at each 1-ka interval. A nested hierarchy of models, from the scale of the northeast Atlantic to the east coast of England, uses 26 tidal harmonics to reconstruct tidal regimes. Predictions consistently show tidal ranges smaller than present in the early Holocene, with only minor changes since 6 ka bp. Recalibration of previously available sea-level index points using the model results rather than present tidal-range parameters increases the difference between observations and predictions of relative sea-levels from the glacio-hydro-isostatic models and reinforces the need to search for better ice-sheet reconstructions.

Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era

Significance We present the first, to our knowledge, estimate of global sea-level (GSL) change over the last ∼3,000 years that is based upon statistical synthesis of a global database of regional sea-level reconstructions. GSL varied by ∼±8 cm over the pre-Industrial Common Era, with a notable decline over 1000–1400 CE coinciding with ∼0.2 °C of global cooling. The 20th century rise was extremely likely faster than during any of the 27 previous centuries. Semiempirical modeling indicates that, without global warming, GSL in the 20th century very likely would have risen by between −3 cm and +7 cm, rather than the ∼14 cm observed. Semiempirical 21st century projections largely reconcile differences between Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections and semiempirical models. We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0–700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000–1400 CE is associated with ∼0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P≥0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P=0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8±1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report.

Reconstructing relative sea-level change using UK salt-marsh foraminifera

Abstract The position of past sea levels can be reconstructed using a series of sea-level index points that possess information on age, location, altitude, and a quantified vertical relationship with a former tidal frame (the “indicative meaning”). Whilst these points fix the altitude of relative sea-level at one instant in time, they provide no information on its variation between them. Here, a foraminiferal transfer function is used to reconstruct changes in water depth from fossil assemblages preserved within salt-marsh sediments. The transfer function performs reliably in the high marsh zone, where agglutinated foraminiferal species are dominant. In lower marsh environments where calcareous species are prevalent, postmortem test dissolution alters the fossil assemblages and leaves them without modern analogues. To circumvent this problem, a new transfer function based on agglutinated foraminifera and utilising preserved test linings is developed. This new transfer function significantly reduces the number of samples without modern analogues, but at the expense of diminished sensitivity in the low marsh environment. Additionally, the transfer function is used to establish a series of sea-level index points that place observed lateral shifts in depositional environment into a vertical and temporal context. The combination of age-altitude and high-resolution water-level reconstructions offers the potential to obtain more detailed and reliable records of relative sea-level change from salt-marsh sediments.

Diatom-based tidal-level transfer functions as an aid in reconstructing Quaternary history of sea-level movements in the UK

This research analyses the diatom asssemblages recorded from six UK coastal sites and relates these diatom assemblages to tidal levels. The relationship between diatom assemblages and tidal levels is examined statistically in order to develop a diatom-based tidal-level transfer function. The results suggest that there is highly significant correlation between the diatom assemblages and water levels from mean high water of neap tides to highest astronomical tide (p = 0.01, 99 random permutations). A weighted average (WA) transfer function is thus established, and the predictive ability of this transfer function is highly satisfactory. Finally, this transfer function is applied successfully to estimate palaeotidal-levels from fossil diatom data recorded in late Holocene coastal sequences. Copyright