Benjamin T. Crosby

Arctic Landscapes in Transition: Responses to Thawing Permafrost

Observations indicate that over the past several decades, geomorphic processes in the Arctic have been changing or intensifying. Coastal erosion, which currently supplies most of the sediment and carbon to the Arctic Ocean [Rachold et al., 2000], may have doubled since 1955 [Mars and Houseknecht, 2007]. Further inland, expansion of channel networks [Toniolo et al., 2009] and increased river bank erosion [Costard et al., 2007] have been attributed to warming. Lakes, ponds, and wetlands appear to be more dynamic, growing in some areas, shrinking in others, and changing distribution across lowland regions [e.g., Smith et al., 2005]. On the Arctic coastal plain, recent degradation of frozen ground previously stable for thousands of years suggests 10–30% of lowland and tundra landscapes may be affected by even modest warming [Jorgenson et al., 2006]. In headwater regions, hillslope soil erosion and landslides are increasing [e.g., Gooseff et al., 2009].

Comparing Two Methods of Surface Change Detection on an Evolving Thermokarst Using High-Temporal-Frequency Terrestrial Laser Scanning, Selawik River, Alaska

Terrestrial laser scanners (TLS) allow large and complex landforms to be rapidly surveyed at previously unattainable point densities. Many change detection methods have been employed to make use of these rich data sets, including cloud to mesh (C2M) comparisons and Multiscale Model to Model Cloud Comparison (M3C2). Rather than use simulated point cloud data, we utilized a 58 scan TLS survey data set of the Selawik retrogressive thaw slump (RTS) to compare C2M and M3C2. The Selawik RTS is a rapidly evolving permafrost degradation feature in northwest Alaska that presents challenging survey conditions and a unique opportunity to compare change detection methods in a difficult surveying environment. Additionally, this study considers several error analysis techniques, investigates the spatial variability of topographic change across the feature and explores visualization techniques that enable the analysis of this spatiotemporal data set. C2M reports a higher magnitude of topographic change over short periods of time ( 12 h) and reports a lower magnitude of topographic change over long periods of time ( four weeks) when compared to M3C2. We found that M3C2 provides a better accounting of the sources of uncertainty in TLS change detection than C2M, because it considers the uncertainty due to surface roughness and scan registration. We also found that localized areas of the RTS do not always approximate the overall retreat of the feature and show considerable spatial variability during inclement weather; however, when averaged together, the spatial subsets approximate the retreat of the entire feature. New data visualization techniques are explored to leverage temporally and spatially continuous data sets. Spatially binning the data into vertical strips

Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earths surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.

Preservation of a Preglacial Landscape Under the Center of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Deep Freeze Geologists usually consider glaciers and ice sheets to be gigantic abrasives, scouring the ground beneath them and carving out relief on the underlying landscapes. Bierman et al. (p. 402, published online 17 April) show that this is not always the case. They found that the silt at the very bottom of the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 core contained significant amounts of beryllium-10, an isotope produced in the atmosphere by cosmic rays and which adheres to soils when it is deposited on them. Hence, the dust at the bottom of the ice sheet indicates the persistence of a landscape under 3000 meters of glacial ice that is millions of years old. Soil has been frozen to the central part of the bed of the Greenland Ice Sheet for at least 2.7 million years. Continental ice sheets typically sculpt landscapes via erosion; under certain conditions, ancient landscapes can be preserved beneath ice and can survive extensive and repeated glaciation. We used concentrations of atmospherically produced cosmogenic beryllium-10, carbon, and nitrogen to show that ancient soil has been preserved in basal ice for millions of years at the center of the ice sheet at Summit, Greenland. This finding suggests ice sheet stability through the Pleistocene (i.e., the past 2.7 million years). The preservation of this soil implies that the ice has been nonerosive and frozen to the bed for much of that time, that there was no substantial exposure of central Greenland once the ice sheet became fully established, and that preglacial landscapes can remain preserved for long periods under continental ice sheets.

What does a mean mean? The temporal evolution of detrital cosmogenic denudation rates in a transient landscape

In equilibrium landscapes, 10 Be concentrations within detrital quartz grains are expected to quantitatively refl ect basin-wide denudation rates. In transient landscapes, though detrital quartz is derived from both the incising, adjusting lowland and the unadjusted, relict upland, the integrated 10 Be concentrations still provide a denudation rate averaged across the two domains. Because fi eld samples can provide only a snapshot of the current upstream-averaged erosion rate, we employ a numerical landscape evolution model to explore how 10 Be-derived denudation rates vary over time and space during transient adjustment. Model results suggest that the longitudinal pattern of mean denudation rates is generated by the river’s progressive dilution of low-volume, high-concentration detritus from relict uplands by the integration of high-volume, low-concentration detritus from adjusting lowlands. The proportion of these materials in any detrital sample depends on what fraction of the upstream area remains unadjusted. Because the boundary of the adjusting part of the landscape changes over time, the longitudinal trend in cosmogenic nuclide‐derived erosion rates changes over time. These insights are then used to guide our interpretation of geomorphic and longitudinal cosmogenic nuclide data from the South Fork Eel River (SFER) in the California Coast Range (United States). The northward-propagating crustal thickening and rock uplift associated with the passage of the Mendocino triple junction generates a mobile wave of uplift that progressively sweeps longitudinally down the SFER. The consequences of this forcing can be both replicated in the model environment and observed in the fi eld. The SFER contains transient landforms including knickpoints and river terraces along mainstem and tributary channels that defi ne a clear boundary between an incised, adjusting lowland and an unadjusted, relict upland. We report nine nested, basin-wide denudation rates in the mainstem of the SFER using terrestrial cosmogenic 10 Be in river-borne sediment. We fi nd that denudation rates increase in the downstream direction from ~0.2 mm/yr in the upper catchment to ~0.5 mm/yr at the outlet. Using comparisons to the modeled landscape, we show that this pattern of denudation rates, paired with the distribution of relict topography throughout the watershed, refl ect the immaturity of the landscape’s transient adjustment. Later in this modeled transient, the predicted erosion rates decrease downstream before they become uniform. This interpretation of our data has potentially far-reaching implications for quantifying the uplift history and response time of transient landscapes using cosmogenic nuclides.

Anticipating Stream Ecosystem Responses to Climate Change: Toward Predictions that Incorporate Effects Via Land-Water Linkages

Climate change (CC) is projected to increase the frequency and severity of natural disturbances (wildfires, insect outbreaks, and debris flows) and shift distributions of terrestrial ecosystems on a global basis. Although such terrestrial changes may affect stream ecosystems, they have not been incorporated into predictions of stream responses to CC. Here, we introduce a conceptual framework to evaluate to what extent responses of streams to CC will be driven by not only changes in thermal and hydrologic regimes, but also alterations of terrestrial processes. We focused on forested watersheds of western North America because this region is projected to experience CC-induced alteration of terrestrial processes. This provided a backdrop for investigating interactive effects of climate and terrestrial responses on streams. Because stream responses to terrestrial processes have been well-studied in contexts largely independent of CC research, we synthesized this knowledge to demonstrate how CC-induced alterations of terrestrial ecosystems may affect streams. Our synthesis indicated that altered terrestrial processes will change terrestrial–aquatic linkages and autotrophic production, potentially yielding greater sensitivity of streams to CC than would be expected based on shifts in temperature and precipitation regime alone. Despite uncertainties that currently constrain predictions regarding stream responses to these additional pathways of change, this synthesis highlighted broader effects of CC that require additional research. Based on widespread evidence that CC is linked to changing terrestrial processes, we conclude that accurate predictions of CC effects on streams may be coupled to the accuracy of predictions for long-term changes in terrestrial ecosystems.

Short communication: Estimation of stream channel geometry in Idaho using GIS-derived watershed characteristics

This paper describes estimation of stream channel geometry with multiple regression analysis of GIS-derived watershed characteristics including drainage area, catchment-averaged precipitation, mean watershed slope, elevation, forest cover, percent area with slopes greater than 30 percent, and percent area with north-facing slopes greater than 30 percent. Results from this multivariate predictor method were compared to results from the traditional single-variable (drainage area) relationship for a sample of 98 unregulated and undiverted streams in Idaho. Root-mean-squared error (RMSE) was calculated for both multiple- and single-variable predictions for 100 independent, random subsamples of the dataset at each of four different subsample levels. The multiple-variable technique produced significantly lower RMSE for prediction of both stream width and depth when compared to the drainage area-only technique. In the best predictive equation, stream width depended positively on drainage area and mean watershed precipitation, and negatively on fraction of watershed consisting of north-facing slopes greater than 30%. Stream depth depended positively on drainage area and precipitation, and negatively on mean watershed elevation. Our results suggest that within a given physiographic province, multivariate analysis of readily available GIS-derived watershed variables can significantly improve estimates of stream width and depth for use in flow-routing software models.

Variations in soil carbon dioxide efflux across a thaw slump chronosequence in northwestern Alaska

Warming of the arctic landscape results in permafrost thaw, which causes ground subsidence or thermokarst. Thermokarst formation on hillslopes leads to the formation of thermal erosion features that dramatically alter soil properties and likely affect soil carbon emissions, but such features have received little study in this regard. In order to assess the magnitude and persistence of altered emissions, we use a space-for-time substitution (thaw slump chronosequence) to quantify and compare peak growing season soil carbon dioxide .CO2/ fluxes from undisturbed tundra, active, and stabilized thermal erosion features over two seasons. Measurements of soil temperature and moisture, soil organic matter, and bulk density are used to evaluate the factors controlling soil CO2 emissions from each of the three chronosequence stages. Soil CO2 efflux from the active slump is consistently less than half that observed in the undisturbed tundra or stabilized slump (1.8 versus 5.2 g CO2‐C m 2 d 1 in 2011; 0.9 versus 3.2 g CO2‐C m 2 d 1 in 2012), despite soil temperatures on the floor of the active slump that are 10‐15 C warmer than the tundra and stabilized slump. Environmental factors such as soil temperature and moisture do not exert a strong control on CO2 efflux, rather, local soil physical and chemical properties such as soil organic matter and bulk density, are strongly and inversely related among these chronosequence stages .r 2 D 0:97/, and explain 50% of the variation in soil CO2 efflux. Thus, despite profound soil warming and rapid exposure of buried carbon in the active slump, the low organic matter content, lack of stable vegetation, and large increases in the bulk densities in the uppermost portion of active slump soils (up to 2:2 g 1 cm 3 ) appear to limit CO2 efflux from the active

A simple framework for assessing the sensitivity of mountain watersheds to warming‐driven snowpack loss

The common observation that snowpack increases with elevation suggests that a catchments elevation distribution should be a robust indicator of its potential to store snow and its sensitivity to snowpack loss. To capture a wide range of potential elevation-based responses, we used Monte Carlo methods to simulate 20,000 watershed elevation distributions. We applied a simple function relating warming, elevation, and snowpack to explore snowpack losses from the simulated elevation distributions. Regression analyses demonstrate that snowpack loss is best described by three parameters that identify the central tendency, variance, and shape of each catchments elevation distribution. Equal amounts of snowpack loss can occur even when catchments are centered within different elevation zones; this stresses the value of also measuring the variance and shape of elevation distributions. Responses of the simulated elevation distributions to warming are nonlinear and emphasize that the sensitivity of mountain forests to snowpack loss will likely be watershed dependent.

Predicting soil thickness on soil mantled hillslopes

Soil thickness is a fundamental variable in many earth science disciplines due to its critical role in many hydrological and ecological processes, but it is difficult to predict. Here we show a strong linear relationship (r2 = 0.87, RMSE = 0.19 m) between soil thickness and hillslope curvature across both convergent and divergent parts of the landscape at a field site in Idaho. We find similar linear relationships across diverse landscapes (n = 6) with the slopes of these relationships varying as a function of the standard deviation in catchment curvatures. This soil thickness-curvature approach is significantly more efficient and just as accurate as kriging-based methods, but requires only high-resolution elevation data and as few as one soil profile. Efficiently attained, spatially continuous soil thickness datasets enable improved models for soil carbon, hydrology, weathering, and landscape evolution.Soil thickness is a key parameter in earth system models, yet how it varies spatially at catchment scales is largely unknown due to measurement challenges. Here, the authors show that a continuous field of thicknesses can be predicted using high-resolution topography and a few soil thickness measurements.