C. W. Wobus

Has focused denudation sustained active thrusting at the Himalayan topographic front

The geomorphic character of major river drainages in the Himalayan foothills of central Nepal suggests the existence of a discrete, west-northwest‐trending break in rock uplift rates that does not correspond to previously mapped faults. The 40 Ar/ 39 Ar thermochronologic data from detrital muscovites with provenance from both sides of the discontinuity indicate that this geomorphic break also corresponds to a major discontinuity in cooling ages: samples to the south are Proterozoic to Paleozoic, whereas those to the north are Miocene and younger. Combined, these observations virtually require recent (Pliocene‐ Holocene) motion on a thrust-sense shear zone in the central Nepal Himalaya, ;20‐30 km south of the Main Central thrust. Field observations are consistent with motion on a broad shear zone subparallel to the fabric of the Lesser Himalayan lithotectonic sequence. The results suggest that motion on thrusts in the toe of the Himalayan wedge may be synchronous with deeper exhumation on more hinterland structures in central Nepal. We speculate that this continued exhumation in the hinterland may be related to intense, sustained erosion driven by focused orographic precipitation at the foot of the High Himalaya.

Active out-of-sequence thrust faulting in the central Nepalese Himalaya

Recent convergence between India and Eurasia is commonly assumed to be accommodated mainly along a single fault—the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT)—which reaches the surface in the Siwalik Hills of southern Nepal. Although this model is consistent with geodetic, geomorphic and microseismic data, an alternative model incorporating slip on more northerly surface faults has been proposed to be consistent with these data as well. Here we present in situ cosmogenic 10Be data indicating a fourfold increase in millennial timescale erosion rates occurring over a distance of less than 2 km in central Nepal, delineating for the first time an active thrust fault nearly 100 km north of the surface expression of the MHT. These data challenge the view that rock uplift gradients in central Nepal reflect only passive transport over a ramp in the MHT. Instead, when combined with previously reported 40Ar–39Ar data, our results indicate persistent exhumation above deep-seated, surface-breaking structures at the foot of the high Himalaya. These results suggest that strong dynamic interactions between climate, erosion and tectonics have maintained a locus of active deformation well to the north of the Himalayan deformation front.

Quaternary deformation, river steepening, and heavy precipitation at the front of the Higher Himalayan ranges

Abstract New geologic mapping in the Marsyandi Valley of central Nepal reveals the existence of tectonically significant Quaternary thrust faults at the topographic front of the Higher Himalaya. The zone of recent faulting is coincident with an abrupt change in the gradient of the Marsyandi River and its tributaries, which is thought to mark the transition from a region of rapid uplift in the Higher Himalayan ranges to a region of slower uplift to the south. Uplift of the Higher Himalaya during the Quaternary is not entirely due to passive uplift over a deeply buried ramp in the Himalayan sole thrust, as is commonly believed, but partially reflects active thrusting at the topographic front. The zone of active thrusting is also coincident with a zone of intense monsoon precipitation, suggesting a positive feedback relationship between focused erosion and deformation at the front of the Higher Himalayan ranges.

Modeling the effects of weathering on bedrock‐floored channel geometry

[1] Field and modeling studies suggest that bedrock channels equilibrate to base‐level change through geometry and slope adjustment to imposed discharge, sediment supply, and substrate erodibility conditions. In this study we model the influence of bedrock weathering on channel geometry and slope as mean peak discharge (Qm) and uplift rate (U) vary. We find that channels in which weathering is allowed to increase erodibility are wider, deeper, and less steep than nonweathering channels with the same initial conditions. While fixed erodibility channels maintain similar width/depth ratios regardless of Qm or U, the width/depth ratio of weathering channels is sensitive to uplift rate. At low uplift rates, weathering outpaces erosion, and channels obtain similar width/depth ratios but are wider and less steep than fixed erodibility channels with equal initial conditions. At high uplift rates, erosion outpaces weathering and erodibility remains near the unweathered value, with channel shape and slope nearly identical to a fixed erodibility channel with equal initial conditions. Weathering channels differ most from fixed erodibility channels at intermediate uplift rates, with greater width/depth ratios and lower slopes than fixed erodibility channels with the same initial conditions. Our results support the hypothesis that cross‐channel variations in erodibility created by weathering may be an important control on channel geometry and provide guidance for further testing of this hypothesis in natural systems.

Thermal Erosion of a Permafrost Coastline: Improving Process-Based Models Using Time-Lapse Photography

Abstract Coastal erosion rates locally exceeding 30 m y−1 have been documented along Alaskas Beaufort Sea coastline, and a number of studies suggest that these erosion rates have accelerated as a result of climate change. However, a lack of direct observational evidence has limited our progress in quantifying the specific processes that connect climate change to coastal erosion rates in the Arctic. In particular, while longer ice-free periods are likely to lead to both warmer surface waters and longer fetch, the relative roles of thermal and mechanical (wave) erosion in driving coastal retreat have not been comprehensively quantified. We focus on a permafrost coastline in the northern National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska (NPR-A), where coastal erosion rates have averaged 10–15 m y−1 over two years of direct monitoring. We take advantage of these extraordinary rates of coastal erosion to observe and quantify coastal erosion directly via time-lapse photography in combination with meteorological observations. Our observations indicate that the erosion of these bluffs is largely thermally driven, but that surface winds play a crucial role in exposing the frozen bluffs to the radiatively warmed seawater that drives melting of interstitial ice. To first order, erosion in this setting can be modeled using formulations developed to describe iceberg deterioration in the open ocean. These simple models provide a conceptual framework for evaluating how climate-induced changes in thermal and wave energy might influence future erosion rates in this setting.

Modeling erosion of ice‐rich permafrost bluffs along the Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast

The Arctic climate is changing, inducing accelerating retreat of ice-rich permafrost coastal bluffs. Along Alaskas Beaufort Sea coast, erosion rates have increased roughly threefold from 6.8 to 19 m yr−1 since 1955 while the sea ice-free season has increased roughly twofold from 45 to 100 days since 1979. We develop a numerical model of bluff retreat to assess the relative roles of the length of sea ice-free season, sea level, water temperature, nearshore wavefield, and permafrost temperature in controlling erosion rates in this setting. The model captures the processes of erosion observed in short-term monitoring experiments along the Beaufort Sea coast, including evolution of melt notches, topple of ice wedge-bounded blocks, and degradation of these blocks. Model results agree with time-lapse imagery of bluff evolution and time series of ocean-based instrumentation. Erosion is highly episodic with 40% of erosion is accomplished during less than 5% of the sea ice-free season. Among the formulations of the submarine erosion rate we assessed, we advocate those that employ both water temperature and nearshore wavefield. As high water levels are a prerequisite for erosion, any future changes that increase the frequency with which water levels exceed the base of the bluffs will increase rates of coastal erosion. The certain increases in sea level and potential changes in storminess will both contribute to this effect. As water temperature also influences erosion rates, any further expansion of the sea ice-free season into the midsummer period of greatest insolation is likely to result in an additional increase in coastal retreat rates.

Variability of rock erodibility in bedrock‐floored stream channels based on abrasion mill experiments

We quantify variations in rock erodibility, Kr, within channel cross sections using laboratory abrasion mill experiments on bedrock surfaces extracted from streams with sandstone bedrock in Utah and basaltic bedrock in the Hawaiian Islands. Samples were taken from the thalweg and channel margins, the latter at a height that is inundated annually. For each sample, a sequence of abrasion mill experiments was completed to quantify variations in erosion rate with erosion depth. Erosion rate data from these experiments shows two things. First, the erosion rate from channel margin samples is greater than for thalweg samples, with the greatest difference observed for the rock surface that was exposed in the stream channel. Second, erosion rate decreases with depth beneath the original rock surface, by an order of magnitude in most cases. The erosion rate becomes steady at depths of 1–3 mm for channel margin samples and 0.1–0.4 mm for thalweg samples. Because only rock properties and microtopography vary throughout the sequence of mill experiments, these results suggest that Kr of the bedrock surface exposed in stream channels is higher at the margins than near the channel center and that Kr decreases over depths of ~1 mm. The simplest explanation for these patterns is that Kr is enhanced, at the bedrock surface and along the channel margins, due to the effects of weathering on rock strength and surface roughness. We hypothesize that a balance exists between weathering-enhanced erodibility and episodic incision to allow channel margins to lower at rates similar to the thalweg.

Modeling the subsurface thermal impact of Arctic thaw lakes in a warming climate

Warming air temperatures in the Arctic are modifying the rates of thermokarst processes along Alaskas Arctic Coastal Plain. The Arctic Coastal Plain is dominated by thaw lakes. These kilometer-scale lakes are the most visible surface features in the region, and they provide important habitats for migratory birds. The lakes are formed by thermokarst processes, and are therefore susceptible to change as warming continues. We present a 1D numerical model of permafrost and subsidence processes in order to investigate the subsurface thermal impact of thaw lakes of various depths, and to evaluate how this impact might change in a warming climate. Currently, most thaw lakes in the region are shallow (<~2m deep), freeze to their base each winter, and are not underlain by permanently unfrozen ground (taliks). Field observations indicate that these shallow lakes have not greatly altered the thermal structure of the subsurface. Our model suggests that under a warming scenario, the number of lakes that do not freeze to their base during the winter, and are therefore underlain by taliks, will increase. Such changes could substantially alter the hydrology of the Arctic Coastal Plain.

Climate change impacts on freshwater fish, coral reefs, and related ecosystem services in the United States

We analyzed the potential physical and economic impacts of climate change on freshwater fisheries and coral reefs in the United States, examining a reference case and two policy scenarios that limit global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We modeled shifts in suitable habitat for three freshwater fish guilds and changes in coral reef cover for three regions. We estimated resulting economic impacts from projected changes in recreational fishing and changes in recreational use of coral reefs. In general, coldwater fisheries are projected to be replaced by less desirable fisheries over the 21st century, but these impacts are reduced under the GHG mitigation scenarios. Similarly, coral cover is projected to decline over the 21st century primarily due to multiple bleaching events, but the GHG mitigation scenarios delay these declines in Hawaii (but not in South Florida or Puerto Rico). Using a benefit-transfer approach, we estimated that global policies limiting GHG emissions would provide economic benefits in the range of

Hydrologic Alterations from Climate Change Inform Assessment of Ecological Risk to Pacific Salmon in Bristol Bay, Alaska

10–28 billion over the 21st century through maintaining higher values for recreational services for all freshwater fisheries and coral reefs, compared to the reference scenario. These economic values are a subset of the total economic and societal benefits associated with avoiding projected future declines in freshwater fisheries and coral reef cover due to unmitigated climate change.