Robert W. Van Kirk

Predicting effects of hydrologic alteration and climate change on ecosystem metabolism in a western U.S. river

We estimated past and future hydrographs and patterns of ecosystem metabolism in a fifth-order river of the western United States, where water use and climate change are both expected to alter hydrology in the immediate future. We first reconstructed the unregulated hydrograph to estimate how the current hydrograph has been altered. Due to consumptive use, 95% as irrigation, current discharge during summer (July-September) was 70% lower than would occur if the river was unregulated. We then predicted a future hydrograph including effects of consumptive use and climate change; the magnitude of flow changes were minor under this regime relative to those already manifested by consumptive uses. We used time-series regression and a six-year continuous record of open-water metabolism to demonstrate that, under the current hydrologic regime, gross primary production (GPP) was dependent on both water temperature and flow and that ecosystem respiration (ER) was most dependent on temperature. Monte Carlo simulations under the three hydrologic regimes and three temperature scenarios (current, +2 degrees C, +4 degrees C) suggested that flow, but not temperature, may have profound effects on the magnitude of metabolism. Linking temporally detailed analyses of ecological function and hydrology may lead to better understanding and management of changes due to basin-scale water use and/or global-scale climate change.

Regional Sensitivities of Seasonal Snowpack to Elevation, Aspect, and Vegetation Cover in Western North America

In mountains with seasonal snow cover, the effects of climate change on snowpack will be constrained by landscape-vegetation interactions with the atmosphere. Airborne lidar surveys used to estimate snow depth, topography, and vegetation were coupled with reanalysis climate products to quantify these interactions and to highlight potential snowpack sensitivities to climate and vegetation change across the western U.S. at Rocky Mountain (RM), Northern Basin and Range (NBR), and Sierra Nevada (SNV) sites. In forest and shrub areas, elevation captured the greatest amount of variability in snow depth (16–79%) but aspect explained more variability (11–40%) in alpine areas. Aspect was most important at RM sites where incoming shortwave to incoming net radiation (SW:NetR↓) was highest (∼0.5), capturing 17–37% of snow depth variability in forests and 32–37% in shrub areas. Forest vegetation height exhibited negative relationships with snow depth and explained 3–6% of its variability at sites with greater longwave inputs (NBR and SNV). Variability in the importance of physiography suggests differential sensitivities of snowpack to climate and vegetation change. The high SW:NetR↓ and importance of aspect suggests RM sites may be more responsive to decreases in SW:NetR↓ driven by warming or increases in humidity or cloud cover. Reduced canopy-cover could increase snow depths at SNV sites, and NBR and SNV sites are currently more sensitive to shifts from snow to rain. The consistent importance of aspect and elevation indicates that changes in SW:NetR↓ and the elevation of the rain/snow transition zone could have widespread and varied effects on western U.S. snowpacks.