Bernd Münier

Modelling land-use effects of future urbanization using cellular automata: An Eastern Danish case

The modelling of land use change is a way to analyse future scenarios by modelling different pathways. Application of spatial data of different scales coupled with socio-economic data makes it possible to explore and test the understanding of land use change relations. In the EU-FP7 research project PASHMINA (Paradigm Shift modelling and innovative approaches), three storylines of future transportation paradigm shifts towards 2040 are created. These storylines are translated into spatial planning strategies and modelled using the cellular automata model LUCIA. For the modelling, an Eastern Danish case area was selected, comprising of the Copenhagen metropolitan area and its hinterland. The different scenarios are described using a range of different descriptive GIS datasets. These include mapping of accessibility based on public and private transportation, urban density and structure, and distribution of jobs and population. These indicators are then incorporated in the model calculations as factors determining urban development, related to the scenario outlines. The results calculated from the scenarios reveals the great difference in urban distribution that different spatial planning strategies can produce, changing the shape of the urban landscape. The scenarios visualized showed to outline different planning strategies that could be implemented, creating a more homogenous urban structure targeted at a reduction of transportation work and thus energy consumption. This will lead to less impact on climate from transportation based on a more optimal localization and transport infrastructure strategy.

Wildlife vulnerability and risk maps for combined pollutants.

Ecological risk and vulnerability maps can be used to improve the analysis of pollutant risks and communication to stakeholders. Often, such maps are made for one pollutant at the time. We used the results of wildlife vulnerability analysis, a novel trait-based risk assessment approach, to map overall vulnerability of habitats in Denmark to various metals and one insecticide. These maps were combined with maps of estimated soil concentrations for the same compounds divided by their Maximum Permissible Concentrations. This combination yielded relative risk maps that can be used to assess where the highest risk conditions to wildlife from these individual pollutants in Denmark occur (hot spot identification). In order to show how cumulative risk maps can be made, the maps of the individual pollutants were combined assuming different mechanisms of joint toxicity: no addition, concentration addition, antagonism and synergism. The study demonstrated that with an accurate set of geographical and ecological data one can use the results of vulnerability analysis to make relevant ecological risk maps that show hot spot areas for risks of single or cumulative risks from soil pollutants.

Accessibility analysis and modelling in public transport networks: a raster based approach

Accessibility is an important factor in the development of land-use patterns and urban settlements, and these two components are considered linked close together. With the increasing attention payed to reduction of CO2 emissions, focus has been turned towards increased accessibility to public transportation. The work conducted in this study proposes a simplistic raster based model of accessibility to workplaces based on the public transportation services. The raster GIS based approach was chosen due to the need to combine this model with a raster based land-use simulation framework, where simulations of future urban development could be modelled. It has been shown that the proposed GIS model developed is suitable for representing the spatial difference in terms of accessibility for commuters by public transport within the study area. Clear differences between the Copenhagen Metropolitan area and the outskirts of the region can be seen, and are very much in line with statistics on commuting activities for the municipalities involved.