Beth Elise Whitaker

Voting on a constitution: Implications for democracy in Kenya

Abstract In November 2005, Kenya held its first-ever national referendum on a proposed constitution. After a contentious review process, 58% of voters rejected the final document. It is common in the analysis of Kenyan politics to rely on ethnic explanations; indeed, the referendum results cannot be understood without exploring ethnic cleavages in Kenyan society. However, an exclusive focus on ethnicity obscures other factors that influenced voters, including the controversial process of drafting the constitution, the mobilisation efforts of the ‘yes’ and ‘no’ campaigns, and the perceived performance of the government. In the end, the referendum was seen as a positive step toward democratic consolidation in Kenya and raised hopes for the future. For the second time in three years, voters rejected the preference of the sitting government, which respected the results. Hopes were dashed, though, when irregularities marred the 2007 election and the announcement of contested results sparked a wave of violence. Under intense domestic and international pressure, the opposing sides reached a power-sharing agreement, as the need for a new constitutional order in Kenya became even more apparent.

Refugees and the Spread of Conflict: Contrasting Cases in Central Africa:

Do refugee movements cause the spread of conflict from one country to another and if so, under what conditions? This artice explores these questions by examining the contrasting cases of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Tanzania. The 1994 influx of Rwandan refugees into eastern Congo was a contributing factor in the outbreak of war there in 1996 and again in 1998. The 1994 refugee migration into western Tanzania, however, was relatively peaceful and did not generate further conflict. By exploring similarities and differences between the two cases, this artice develops several hypotheses about the conditions under which a massive refugee influx may result in the spread of conflict. In the end, the paper argues that refugees enter into an existing political context, creating new alignments and transforming old ones. In some cases, conflicts may result, each with its own dynamics, but in others they do not.

Exporting the Patriot Act? democracy and the ‘war on terror’ in the Third World

Abstract Since 2001 many countries have adopted anti-terrorism laws that limit civil liberties and expand law enforcement powers in the name of national security. Counter-terrorism legislation is promoted through several international channels, most notably the United Nations Counter-Terrorism Committee, but the USA is clearly seen as the driving force. This article examines the politics surrounding the recent development and implementation of anti-terrorism laws in the Third World and the implications for ongoing processes of democratisation. In some countries the adoption of anti-terrorism laws has provided leaders with the tools they need to silence critics and punish political opponents. In others the introduction of such bills has actually encouraged debate and fostered civil society activism, much of it anti-American in tone. In either setting the Bush administrations twin foreign policy goals of strengthening international security and promoting democracy may be creating more cynics than friends.

The Politics of Home: Dual Citizenship and the African Diaspora.

In recent decades, more countries have started to recognize dual citizenship. Although overlooked in the literature, Africa is part of this trend with more than half of its governments now permitting their nationals to naturalize elsewhere while retaining home country rights. Why have some African countries embraced dual citizenship for emigrants, while others have not? We examine demographic, political, and economic data broadly across the continent and identify few clear patterns. We then explore the cases of Senegal, Ghana, and Kenya, finding that dual citizenship policies are driven as much by politics as they are by economic or security concerns.

Compliance among weak states: Africa and the counter-terrorism regime

This article examines levels of compliance with the counter-terrorism regime in Africa, where weak states might have been expected to conform. Instead, even under American pressure, some governments have seized the anti-terrorism rhetoric while others have been more reluctant. A comparative analysis of Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda demonstrates that domestic political factors largely explain this variation; compliance is highest in countries with the least democratic institutions and minimal mobilisation of domestic constituencies. Aid dependence and the perception of a terrorist threat also play a role. To the extent that popular pressures in transitional democracies reduce compliance, the article raises questions about the legitimacy and effectiveness of the counter-terrorism regime.

Political Competition and Attitudes towards Immigration in Africa

This paper examines the political conditions under which individuals are more likely to oppose immigration. We focus on immigration attitudes in Africa, which has been overlooked in existing literature and where there is wide variation on political factors. Drawing on existing case study literature that links exclusionary politics in that region to on-going processes of political liberalisation, we hypothesise that political competition heightens opposition to immigration by raising the salience of the issue and legitimising hostile attitudes. Using multilevel mixed-effect ordered logistic regression analysis with survey data from African countries, we find that opposition to immigration is significantly higher among individuals in countries that are more democratic, that have dominant party systems, and when the survey is conducted shortly before or after a national election. Our analysis also shows that opposition to immigration is more likely in African countries with higher levels of ethnic diversity and higher levels of economic development. In addition to raising important questions for future cross-regional research, our findings from Africa suggest a need to re-think broader comparative theories about immigration attitudes and to give greater attention to the role of political competition in shaping public opinion.

Migration within Africa and Beyond

On January 27, 2017, the week-old Trump administration temporarily banned immigration to the United States from seven countries, including three in Africa (Libya, Somalia, and Sudan), and blocked refugees from all countries. The executive order prompted protests around the world and drew attention to the plight of refugees and migrants. Community groups held town hall meetings, and refugee service organizations saw a jump in contributions and volunteers.1 Social media were awash with stories about people whose lives were upended when the ban prevented them from seeking medical care in the United States or reuniting with loved ones. But the executive order also had supporters, including some who called for a boycott of Budweiser over a commercial about its founder’s arriving in America as a refugee from Germany in the 1850s. The recent furor about immigration in the United States is only the latest chapter in a lengthy global saga. In 2015 all eyes were on Europe as it struggled to manage a rapid increase in the number of refugees and

Which Immigrants Should Be Naturalized? Which Should Be Deported? Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Côte d’Ivoire:

Experimental studies on immigration attitudes have been conducted overwhelmingly in Western countries and have focused on immigrant admission and naturalization, neglecting deportation as a possible outcome. In a survey experiment in Côte d’Ivoire, where immigrants represent more than one-tenth of the population, we randomized attributes of hypothetical immigrants to determine which factors influenced respondents’ support for naturalization or deportation compared with staying in the country without citizenship. Support for naturalization was shaped by several expected economic and social attributes, while deportation preferences were influenced primarily by the immigrant’s legal status and level of savings. Cultural proximity produced mixed results, with respondents less likely to support the naturalization of immigrants from neighboring African countries but also less likely to deport immigrants with whom they shared a religious faith. Finally, respondents were more likely to support the naturalization of immigrants who planned to vote if granted citizenship, especially when they were of the same religion as the respondent, indicating a degree of electoral calculation in a context where voting patterns are associated with religious identities. Together, these findings suggest that citizen preferences for naturalization and deportation are influenced by somewhat different factors, a possibility that warrants further testing in other contexts.

Funding rebellion: The Rebel Contraband Dataset

We introduce a new dataset measuring if and how rebel groups earn income from the exploitation of natural resources or criminal activities. The Rebel Contraband Dataset makes three contributions to data in this area. First, it covers a wide range of natural resources and types of crime. Second, it measures rebel engagement in these activities over time. Third, it distinguishes among different strategies that rebel groups employ, such as extortion and smuggling. Theory suggests that reliance on natural resource wealth should lead rebels to mistreat civilians, but cross-group research using existing data does not find support for this relationship. We replicate an earlier study using data from the Rebel Contraband Dataset and conclude that there is a consistent relationship between natural resource exploitation and civilian victimization. Future research can use the dataset to explore questions about the onset, location, severity, and outcomes of civil conflicts.

Rebel Natural Resource Exploitation and Conflict Duration

How does natural resource wealth influence the duration of civil conflicts? We theorize that the exploitation of natural resources can strengthen rebels’ “power to resist” the government, but this depends on how rebels earn funding from those resources. Distinguishing between the extortion and smuggling of natural resources, we posit that smuggling in particular is more likely to give rebels the flexibility and mobility needed to effectively resist government repression. We then test this proposition empirically using new data that identify not only whether rebels profit from resources but also how they do so. We find that only when rebels smuggle natural resources do civil conflicts last significantly longer. In contrast, conflicts in which rebel groups earn money from extorting natural resource production are not significantly more likely to endure. This finding is of special interest because past work has largely ignored how rebels earn income from natural resources and the implication this distinction might have on conflict processes.