Bo Jellesmark Thorsen

An Empirically Based Typology of Private Forest Owners in Denmark: Improving Communication Between Authorities and Owners

For policy instruments to be effective, they should motivate forest owners to adjust behaviour in agreement with forest policy objectives. It may therefore be beneficial to know the motivations of private forest owners. Often, forest owners are assumed to constitute an entity, although statistics and structural changes indicate increasing heterogeneity. Instead, forest owners can be divided into types, i.e. groups that include forest owners with similar attitudes, and where attitudes of each group differ from those of other groups. Based on a survey among private forest owners in Denmark, three types of owners were identified: (1) the classic forest owner to whom the forest has economic importance; (2) the hobby owner who enjoys work and recreation in the forest; and (3) the indifferent farmer to whom the different values provided by the forest are equally (un)important. Implications of this typology for forest policy formulation and implementation are discussed.

A review of decision-making approaches to handle uncertainty and risk in adaptive forest management under climate change

Abstract• ContextThis review paper provides an overview of approaches to which we may resort for handling the complex decision problems involving uncertainty and risk that climate change implies for forest managers. Modelling approaches that could support adaptive management strategies seem to be called for, not only as climate change denotes increased economic uncertainty but also because new and more reliable information becomes available as time passes and climate changes.• AimsThe paper (1) provides a broad overview of state-of-the-art methods for optimal decision making under risk and uncertainty in forestry and (2) elaborates on the possible use of these methods in adaptive forest management under climate change.• MethodA survey of the current literature is carried out to identify approaches and developments that may prove most promising in relation to different challenges to the adaptive management of forest ecosystems under climate change.• ResultsMost studies focusing on changing, typically increasing, risks in forest management under climate change tend to build on existing approaches about changes in risk levels contingent on climate change scenarios.• ConclusionFinally, we discuss what to emphasise in future studies to improve the understanding of adaptive forest management and decision support tools needed to cope with climate change.

Are we ready for back-to-nature crop breeding?

Sustainable agriculture in response to increasing demands for food depends on development of high-yielding crops with high nutritional value that require minimal intervention during growth. To date, the focus has been on changing plants by introducing genes that impart new properties, which the plants and their ancestors never possessed. By contrast, we suggest another potentially beneficial and perhaps less controversial strategy that modern plant biotechnology may adopt. This approach, which broadens earlier approaches to reverse breeding, aims to furnish crops with lost properties that their ancestors once possessed in order to tolerate adverse environmental conditions. What molecular techniques are available for implementing such rewilding? Are the strategies legally, socially, economically, and ethically feasible? These are the questions addressed in this review.

Optimal stand management with endogenous risk of sudden destruction

The optimal thinning and rotation age policy for a stand subject to risk of destruction by windthrow is investigated. In particular, risk is not assumed exogenous as in previous research, but is modelled as endogenous to stand management. It is shown that the optimal solution when risk is endogenous differs significantly from the optimal solution to a problem where risk is assumed absent or exogenous. We find that in spite of substantial fixed costs related to thinning, the optimal number of thinnings increases and the optimal intensity of each thinning decreases. Furthermore, we find that the shortening effect of risk on the optimal rotation age is reduced substantially, when the thinning strategy is optimized subject to the effect on the risk levels. We conclude that the presence of endogenous risk strongly affects the optimal management strategy, and that an ecologically better founded approach to stand management is optimal in such cases. A group of solutions centred around a local optimum was characterized by fewer, more intense thinnings and a drastic shortening of the rotation age. If fixed costs were to increase substantially, this local optimum may become global, but still result in a longer rotation and more frequent thinnings than in the case of exogenous risk. Finally, features of the models risk dynamics allow an analysis of the effect of changing the stands resistance to and ability to recover from (i.e. the stands resilience) the disturbances caused by thinnings, measured as changes in the susceptibility to windthrow. We find that in spite of the fixed costs related to thinning, a decrease in resistance or resilience makes it optimal to increase the number of thinnings, while at the same time making each thinning less intense.

Optimal spatial harvest planning under risk of windthrow

Abstract This study solves the problem of optimal spatial harvest planning when forest stands are faced by risk of windthrow and the risk depends explicitly on the features of the stand and its neighbours as well as on the geographical structure and orientation of the forest. First, we estimate the optimal rotation age and expected net present value for a range of discount rates and windthrow hazards for an unprotected stand. Next, the influence of shelter is evaluated for a ‘forest’ with two stands. Two different windthrow probability models are analysed. Relative to the one-stand case, the optimal rotation age and the corresponding net present value change significantly when an extra stand is included. This is due to the shelter effect reducing the risk of windthrow. Shelter also increases the optimal rotation age from the lower limit, being the optimal rotation age of a single stand, towards the upper limit being the case without risk. The optimal rotation age is shown to depend on geographic orientation as well as the age difference between the two stands of the ‘forest’. For forests with a higher number of stands, the optimal rotation ages may increase considerably due to the shelter effect. To illustrate this, we investigate the optimal harvest policy for a ‘forest’ with four stands where one of the stands is surrounded by the three others. The sensitivity towards geographic orientation is again analysed. Finally, a ‘forest’ with 16 stands is investigated to exemplify how an optimal short-term policy can be identified for an even higher number of stands, though the optimal harvest ages cannot be calculated within reasonable time.

A Danish example of optimal thinning strategies in mixed-species forest under changing growth conditions caused by climate change

Abstract In this study, we analyse the economic and managerial aspects of option values related to having a mixed-species stand. As an example, we look at a mixed Norway spruce and Sitka spruce stand in Denmark when timing and intensity of future climate, and its effect on tree growth, are uncertain. Assuming that tree growth follows a discrete non-stationary stochastic process, we use dynamic programming to optimise the harvest distribution between the two species. The results show that facing growth uncertainty caused by potential climate change implies an option value. Such uncertainty can be a potential advantage as long as we are able to maintain flexibility, keep decisions open, and there is a chance that climatic change will benefit some species. We analyse the model under different uncertainty assumptions and show that the larger changes we expect, the higher is the option value at any time during the stand’s life and, hence, we keep, on average, both tree species in the stand for a longer period of time. Moreover, we find that the adjustments may take place rather late in the rotation, a result brought about by the significance of the option value, which makes it optimal to maintain a reasonable stocking of both species.

Shades of green: a social scientific view on bioeconomy in the forest sector

Politics increasingly introduces initiatives supporting a shift toward a bioeconomy aiming at a society relying strongly on renewable biological sources while achieving economic growth efficiently and sustainably. However, the agenda of bioeconomy comprises different “shades of green,” in the sense that different actors stress different aspects of the concept, when embracing it in communication. This conceptual paper aims to present policy and socioeconomic theoretical frameworks and research areas relevant for a more holistic understanding of the bioeconomy concept applied to the forest sector, and identify a core set of potential contributions from social sciences for enhancing the bioeconomy in the forest sector. The paper focuses on studies within policy analysis, economics, and business administration disciplines. Thus it presents diverse disciplinary perspectives on the forest sector in a bioeconomy. Furthermore, innovation and sustainability have been identified as issues relevant to be approached across these disciplines.

Discount rate and harvest policy: implications for Baltic forestry

Abstract The free market economy, to which East European countries are increasingly being exposed, implies that classical budgeting techniques in the form of the Faustmann approach present themselves as the tools of choice for forest investment analysis. One implication is that the choice of a proper discount rate ( r ) must be made as part of the basis for formulating a harvest policy. The paper discusses this choice in the light of practice as well as theory, and, using Lithuania as a case, examines the potential economic and political impact of softening the current restrictions on forest management. A review of the debate on discounting in forestry is provided. A statistical analysis of the relation between reported r values and internal rates of return (IRR) from numerous studies on forestry investments reveals a strong correlation between r and IRR. Possible explanations are provided. Analysis reveals that application of any positive r will significantly change forestry practice in Lithuania. Setting r =3%, slow growing species are to be replaced by fast growing species, and rotation periods should be substantially shortened. The standing volume of (over-)mature forests is approximately 160 million m 3 , as compared with the currently harvestable volume of approximately 40 million m 3 according to the minimum allowable rotation age. The macroeconomic perspectives of cashing some of the mature forest for the small transition economy are discussed, taking into account the effects of externalities of forests. Consequently we suggest an alternative formulation of the normal forest. Finally, based on these considerations, a real r of 0–2% is suggested for State forestry in Lithuania. A post-tax r of 2% is advocated for private forestry, with potential project specific deviations downward to 0 or upward to 4%. It is stressed that discount rate is viewed as one of the important decision parameters and due regard should be given to non-timber forest outputs, social and institutional settings and other factors.

Heterogeneity in the WTP for recreational access: distributional aspects

In this study we have addressed appropriate modelling of heterogeneity in willingness to pay (WTP) for environmental goods, and have demonstrated its importance using a case of forest access in Denmark. We compared WTP distributions for four models: (1) a multinomial logit model, (2) a mixed logit model assuming a univariate Normal distribution, (3) or assuming a multivariate Normal distribution allowing for correlation across attributes, and (4) a mixture of two truncated Normal distributions, allowing for correlation among attributes. In the first two models mean WTP for enhanced access was negative. However, models accounting for preference heterogeneity found a positive mean WTP, but a large sub-group with negative WTP. Accounting for preference heterogeneity can alter overall conclusions, which highlights the importance of this for policy recommendations.

Valuation of wildlife populations above survival

Biodiversity valuation studies often address the willingness to pay (WTP) for species survival. Many policy initiatives, however, target more generally the population levels of wildlife. This study investigated the empirical question of WTP for enhancing species populations also beyond the survival level. Respondents’ WTP for increases in population levels of endangered species as well as of general wildlife in three habitats were evaluated in a choice experiment, by trading off against income tax and restrictions in recreational access. Any person may have several motives for deriving value from enhanced wildlife populations, and variation in values were analysed in a Latent Class model. We document considerable discrete variations in WTP and respondents fall into several distinct groups. The first group express a significant WTP for saving endangered species only and has no positive WTP for higher population levels, indicating that existence values dominate their WTP. The second group put emphasis on wildlife, but with equal weight attached to moderate and high increases in population for ‘Endangered’ as well as ‘General’ wildlife. Thus, they appear insensitive to scope. The pattern suggests that WTP may be affected by warm glow or deontological motivations. The third group reveal significant WTP, but for at least one of the wildlife attributes they prefer moderate increases over high. This could be due to moral motivations or reflect provision cost concerns. Our findings point to the caution needed when using results from studies focusing on species survival in valuing broader initiatives.