Jette Bredahl Jacobsen

A review of decision-making approaches to handle uncertainty and risk in adaptive forest management under climate change

Abstract• ContextThis review paper provides an overview of approaches to which we may resort for handling the complex decision problems involving uncertainty and risk that climate change implies for forest managers. Modelling approaches that could support adaptive management strategies seem to be called for, not only as climate change denotes increased economic uncertainty but also because new and more reliable information becomes available as time passes and climate changes.• AimsThe paper (1) provides a broad overview of state-of-the-art methods for optimal decision making under risk and uncertainty in forestry and (2) elaborates on the possible use of these methods in adaptive forest management under climate change.• MethodA survey of the current literature is carried out to identify approaches and developments that may prove most promising in relation to different challenges to the adaptive management of forest ecosystems under climate change.• ResultsMost studies focusing on changing, typically increasing, risks in forest management under climate change tend to build on existing approaches about changes in risk levels contingent on climate change scenarios.• ConclusionFinally, we discuss what to emphasise in future studies to improve the understanding of adaptive forest management and decision support tools needed to cope with climate change.

Development and economic significance of forest certification: the case of FSC in Bolivia

Abstract Certification receives major attention in the debate about sustainable forest management, and in Bolivia a relatively wide experience exists regarding Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) certification of natural tropical forests. The present paper studies the conditions imposed on forest operators for getting certified, and the export prices of certified vs. non-certified timber products. This provides a basis for assessing aspects of the effectiveness, efficiency and equity of certification. Effectiveness in terms of certified area has been modest: almost 1 million ha of natural forests, or 14% of the area with management plans, dominated by only five large companies that probably are among the best performing. The conditions for certification are a proxy of its impact, and they mainly regarded documentation, monitoring and environmental issues that might immediately be complied with. Forest management in Bolivia has developed on the basis of an external supported law reform imposing restrictive and controlled regulations and norms, and when fulfilling the new law requirements the FSC principles and criteria are largely met. Only little improvement was obtained through certification in itself. Furthermore, deforestation persists unabated. Therefore, it appears that major roles of the FSC certification have been (i) regulation-oriented verification of compliance with already established norms and (ii) creation of a forum for consensus formation between dominating policy formulating actors. Higher prices, in the range of 5–51%, were paid for the majority of exported certified timber products. There are indications that the price premiums exceed the direct operational costs of certification, but this excess profit will presumably disappear when the market develops. However, the substantial support not based on private initiative that has been given to the certification development restricts the interpretation of the concept as a successful market-based forest policy instrument. The dominance of large enterprises in certification confirms the fear that this tool distorts the conditions of forest production at the national level—small-scale and community based enterprises had difficulties in getting certified.

A Danish example of optimal thinning strategies in mixed-species forest under changing growth conditions caused by climate change

Abstract In this study, we analyse the economic and managerial aspects of option values related to having a mixed-species stand. As an example, we look at a mixed Norway spruce and Sitka spruce stand in Denmark when timing and intensity of future climate, and its effect on tree growth, are uncertain. Assuming that tree growth follows a discrete non-stationary stochastic process, we use dynamic programming to optimise the harvest distribution between the two species. The results show that facing growth uncertainty caused by potential climate change implies an option value. Such uncertainty can be a potential advantage as long as we are able to maintain flexibility, keep decisions open, and there is a chance that climatic change will benefit some species. We analyse the model under different uncertainty assumptions and show that the larger changes we expect, the higher is the option value at any time during the stand’s life and, hence, we keep, on average, both tree species in the stand for a longer period of time. Moreover, we find that the adjustments may take place rather late in the rotation, a result brought about by the significance of the option value, which makes it optimal to maintain a reasonable stocking of both species.

Heterogeneity in the WTP for recreational access: distributional aspects

In this study we have addressed appropriate modelling of heterogeneity in willingness to pay (WTP) for environmental goods, and have demonstrated its importance using a case of forest access in Denmark. We compared WTP distributions for four models: (1) a multinomial logit model, (2) a mixed logit model assuming a univariate Normal distribution, (3) or assuming a multivariate Normal distribution allowing for correlation across attributes, and (4) a mixture of two truncated Normal distributions, allowing for correlation among attributes. In the first two models mean WTP for enhanced access was negative. However, models accounting for preference heterogeneity found a positive mean WTP, but a large sub-group with negative WTP. Accounting for preference heterogeneity can alter overall conclusions, which highlights the importance of this for policy recommendations.

Valuation of wildlife populations above survival

Biodiversity valuation studies often address the willingness to pay (WTP) for species survival. Many policy initiatives, however, target more generally the population levels of wildlife. This study investigated the empirical question of WTP for enhancing species populations also beyond the survival level. Respondents’ WTP for increases in population levels of endangered species as well as of general wildlife in three habitats were evaluated in a choice experiment, by trading off against income tax and restrictions in recreational access. Any person may have several motives for deriving value from enhanced wildlife populations, and variation in values were analysed in a Latent Class model. We document considerable discrete variations in WTP and respondents fall into several distinct groups. The first group express a significant WTP for saving endangered species only and has no positive WTP for higher population levels, indicating that existence values dominate their WTP. The second group put emphasis on wildlife, but with equal weight attached to moderate and high increases in population for ‘Endangered’ as well as ‘General’ wildlife. Thus, they appear insensitive to scope. The pattern suggests that WTP may be affected by warm glow or deontological motivations. The third group reveal significant WTP, but for at least one of the wildlife attributes they prefer moderate increases over high. This could be due to moral motivations or reflect provision cost concerns. Our findings point to the caution needed when using results from studies focusing on species survival in valuing broader initiatives.

Factors Determining the Choice of Hunting and Trading Bushmeat in the Kilombero Valley, Tanzania

Regulation of illegal bushmeat trade is a major conservation challenge in Africa. We investigated what factors are most likely to induce actors in the bushmeat trade to shift to an alternative occupation by conducting a choice experiment with 325 actors in the bushmeat trade in the Kilombero Valley, Tanzania. Specifically, we asked respondents to choose between hunting or trading bushmeat and alternative salary-paying work, in a set of hypothetical scenarios where the attributes of these alternatives were varied and included measures of command and control, price of substitute meat, daily salary in the work option, and whether or not cows were donated to the respondent. We modeled the choice contingent on socioeconomic characteristics. The magnitude of fines and patrolling frequency had a significant but very low negative effect on the probability of choosing to engage in hunting or trading bushmeat compared with the salary of an alternative occupation. Donation of livestock and the price of substitute meats in the local market both affected the choice significantly in a negative and a positive direction, respectively. The wealthier a household was the more likely the respondent was to choose to continue hunting or trading bushmeat. On the margin, our results suggest that given current conditions in the Kilombero Valley on any given day 90% of the respondents would choose salary work at US

Incorporating Outcome Uncertainty and Prior Outcome Beliefs in Stated Preferences

3.37/day over their activities in the bushmeat trade, all else equal.

Knowledge update in adaptive management of forest resources under climate change: a Bayesian simulation approach

Stated preference studies tell respondents that policies create environmental changes with varying levels of uncertainty. However, respondents may include their own a priori assessments of uncertainty when making choices among policy options. Using a choice experiment eliciting respondents’ preferences for conservation policies under climate change, we find that higher outcome uncertainty reduces utility. When accounting for endogeneity, we find that prior beliefs play a significant role in this cost of uncertainty. Thus, merely stating “objective” levels of outcome uncertainty will not necessarily solve the problem of people valuing something differently from originally intended: respondents’ prior beliefs must be accounted for. (JEL C53, D62)

Finding alternatives to swidden agriculture: does agroforestry improve livelihood options and reduce pressure on existing forest?

ContextWe develop a modelling concept that updates knowledge and beliefs about future climate changes, to model a decision-maker’s choice of forest management alternatives, the outcomes of which depend on the climate condition.AimsApplying Bayes’ updating, we show that while the true climate trajectory is initially unknown, it will eventually be revealed as novel information become available. How fast the decision-maker will form firm beliefs about future climate depends on the divergence among climate trajectories, the long-term speed of change, and the short-term climate variability.MethodsWe simplify climate change outcomes to three possible trajectories of low, medium and high changes. We solve a hypothetical decision-making problem of tree species choice aiming at maximising the land expectation value (LEV) and based on the updated beliefs at each time step.ResultsThe economic value of an adaptive approach would be positive and higher than a non-adaptive approach if a large change in climate state occurs and may influence forest decisions.ConclusionUpdating knowledge to handle climate change uncertainty is a valuable addition to the study of adaptive forest management in general and the analysis of forest decision-making, in particular for irreversible or costly decisions of long-term impact.

Public support for conserving bird species runs counter to climate change impacts on their distributions

Swidden cultivation can contribute to deforestation and land degradation, which can subsequently result in a number of serious environmental problems. This paper examines the economic and social potential of agroforestry systems and the barriers to their widespread adoption, as a land use alternative to swidden cultivation, which may potentially help protect local forest. The Gunung Salak valley in West Java, Indonesia is presented as a case study. Based on farmers’ and experts’ assessment, costs and benefits have been estimated, which show that the two investigated agroforestry systems have higher net present value and benefit-cost ratio (B/C) than the two swidden cultivation systems. Tree ownership also creates more permanent rights to farmland and is prestigious in the community. Agroforestry products (fruit, vegetables etc.) have high monetary value and help strengthen social cohesion when shared with neighbors. However, farmers are reluctant to implement agroforestry. Stated reasons are related to both culture and capacity. Farmers practicing agroforestry are less involved in forest clearing and forest products collection than swidden farmers indicating that it may contribute positively to conservation of local forests. Increasing the adoption of agroforestry farming in the study area will require support to overcome capacity constraints.