Niels Strange

Modelling near-natural silvicultural regimes for beech – an economic sensitivity analysis

Near-natural silvicultural regimes for beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), in the form of uneven-aged selective felling, receive increasing interest in Denmark. This is partly due to the ability of this system to preserve the forest climate and maintain important ecological functions such as bio-geochemical cycling and biodiversity conservation. The optimal age to convert from even-aged management to uneven-aged selective felling seems to be as early as possible, about 55 years, when sufficient natural seeding can be expected. A fixed conversion period of 100 years is assumed. This regime, here analysed by the use of a so-called chessboard model, appears to be economically superior to clear felling if the regime is initiated in medium-aged stands down to the age of 55 years, assuming a high site quality and a real discount rate of 3% per annum. Uneven-aged selective felling seems to be economically superior to even-aged natural regeneration, assuming that: (i) the stumpage prices of regeneration harvests are increased by 10%, or (ii) the diameters of regeneration harvests exceed those of even-aged management by about 17% simultaneous with an identical increase of the maximum stumpage price. Clear felling seems to be the more profitable regime only if: (i) the stand is close to the economic optimal rotation age for clear felling, and (ii) when the stumpage prices of regeneration harvests achieved by use of the uneven-aged selective management regime are reduced by 10% or more due to quality defects caused by prolonged rotation ages. The above results are sensitive to variation of stumpage prices, but less so to variation of regeneration costs associated with near-natural management systems. However, the near-natural silvicultural regimes may be unable to fulfill the liquidity objectives following from the application of traditional management systems.

Optimal spatial harvest planning under risk of windthrow

Abstract This study solves the problem of optimal spatial harvest planning when forest stands are faced by risk of windthrow and the risk depends explicitly on the features of the stand and its neighbours as well as on the geographical structure and orientation of the forest. First, we estimate the optimal rotation age and expected net present value for a range of discount rates and windthrow hazards for an unprotected stand. Next, the influence of shelter is evaluated for a ‘forest’ with two stands. Two different windthrow probability models are analysed. Relative to the one-stand case, the optimal rotation age and the corresponding net present value change significantly when an extra stand is included. This is due to the shelter effect reducing the risk of windthrow. Shelter also increases the optimal rotation age from the lower limit, being the optimal rotation age of a single stand, towards the upper limit being the case without risk. The optimal rotation age is shown to depend on geographic orientation as well as the age difference between the two stands of the ‘forest’. For forests with a higher number of stands, the optimal rotation ages may increase considerably due to the shelter effect. To illustrate this, we investigate the optimal harvest policy for a ‘forest’ with four stands where one of the stands is surrounded by the three others. The sensitivity towards geographic orientation is again analysed. Finally, a ‘forest’ with 16 stands is investigated to exemplify how an optimal short-term policy can be identified for an even higher number of stands, though the optimal harvest ages cannot be calculated within reasonable time.

Why socio-political borders and boundaries matter in conservation.

Acting to demarcate the spatial limits of decision-making processes, socio-political boundaries are an inevitable part of a human-dominated world. Rarely coincident with ecological boundaries, and thus having no ecological functional role by themselves, they nevertheless impose substantial costs on biodiversity and ecosystem conservation by fragmenting ownership, governance, and management. Where boundaries are in place, a lack of coordination on either side of a boundary affects the efficiency and efficacy of ecosystem management. We suggest four research pathways which will enhance our ability to address the adverse effects of socio-political borders on conservation: (i) scale-matching, (ii) quantification of the mutual economic benefits of conservation across boundaries, (iii) determining transboundary societal values, and (iv) acknowledging the importance of stakeholder behaviour and incentives.

A Quantitative Analysis of Biodiversity and the Recreational Value of Potential National Parks in Denmark

Denmark has committed itself to the European 2010 target to halt the loss of biodiversity. Currently, Denmark is in the process of designating larger areas as national parks, and 7 areas (of a possible 32 larger nature areas) have been selected for pilot projects to test the feasibility of establishing national parks. In this article, we first evaluate the effectiveness of the a priori network of national parks proposed through expert and political consensus versus a network chosen specifically for biodiversity through quantitative analysis. Second, we analyze the potential synergy between preserving biodiversity in terms of species representation and recreational values in selecting a network of national parks. We use the actual distribution of 973 species within these 32 areas and 4 quantitative measures of recreational value. Our results show that the 7 pilot project areas are not significantly more effective in representing species than expected by chance and that considerably more efficient networks can be selected. Moreover, it is possible to select more-effective networks of areas that combine high representation of species with high ranking in terms of recreational values. Therefore, our findings suggest possible synergies between outdoor recreation and biodiversity conservation when selecting networks of national parks. Overall, this Danish case illustrates that data-driven analysis can not only provide valuable information to guide the decision-making process of designating national parks, but it can also be a means to identify solutions that simultaneously fulfill several goals (biodiversity preservation and recreational values).

Incorporating Outcome Uncertainty and Prior Outcome Beliefs in Stated Preferences

Stated preference studies tell respondents that policies create environmental changes with varying levels of uncertainty. However, respondents may include their own a priori assessments of uncertainty when making choices among policy options. Using a choice experiment eliciting respondents’ preferences for conservation policies under climate change, we find that higher outcome uncertainty reduces utility. When accounting for endogeneity, we find that prior beliefs play a significant role in this cost of uncertainty. Thus, merely stating “objective” levels of outcome uncertainty will not necessarily solve the problem of people valuing something differently from originally intended: respondents’ prior beliefs must be accounted for. (JEL C53, D62)

The option value of non-contaminated forest watersheds

Abstract Non-contaminated drinking water may become a scarce resource in the future. In that case, forest watersheds will play a significant role in ensuring the supply of clean drinking water. However, forest management affects this supply considerably. Christmas tree production is an important income generator in Danish forestry but is also a significant contributor to non-point contamination of groundwater resources because of its application of fertiliser and pesticides. This paper analyses the decision to convert a natural or semi-natural forest into Christmas tree production, when groundwater contamination is irreversible and future returns on non-contaminated groundwater resources and Christmas tree production are uncertain. It is concluded that conventional expected net present value analysis which treats conversion as a ‘now or never’ decision, may not lead to an optimal decision rule. It is shown how the option to postpone conversion and acquire new information should be included. Application of an option value approach shows that the optimal decision strategy is more conservative when the option to postpone is recognised, i.e. option value analysis prescribes that the return on Christmas tree production should be higher to justify conversion. An empirical example shows that when using option value analysis the return on Christmas tree production should increase by more than 100% to justify conversion. Moreover, it is shown that the economic value of a natural forest may increase by more than 12% when the option value is included.

Non-market forest ecosystem services and decision support in Nordic countries

ABSTRACT The need to integrate non-market ecosystem services into decision-making is widely acknowledged. Despite the exponentially growing body of literature, trade-offs between services are still poorly understood. We conducted a systematic review of published literature in the Nordic countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland) on the integration of non-market forest ecosystem services into decision-making. The aim of the review was two-fold: (1) to provide an overview of coverage of biophysical and socio-economic assessments of non-market ecosystem services in relation to forest management; (2) to determine the extent of the integration of biophysical and socio-economic models of these services into decision support models. Our findings reveal the need for wider coverage of non-market ecosystem services and evidence-based modelling of how forest management regimes affect ecosystem services. Furthermore, temporal and spatial modelling of ecosystem impacts remains a challenge. We observed a few examples of multiple non-market services assessments. Integration of non-market services into decision support was performed with either biophysical or socio-economic models, often using proxies and composite indicators. The review reveals that there is scope for more comprehensive and integrated model development, including multiple ecosystem services and appropriate handling of forest management impacts.

Economics of converting an even-aged Fagus sylvatica stand to an uneven-aged stand using target diameter harvesting

Conversion from even-aged management of beech (Fagus sylvatica) to target diameter harvesting was analysed by the use of diameter class models. Results were compared with traditional even-aged shelterwood natural regeneration regimes for a highly productive site. It was found that for discount rates from 0.5 to 3%, the profitability of the two silvicultural systems differs by up to 5%, with target diameters of 45–55 cm and rotation ages of 80–110 years in the traditional regimes. Target diameter harvesting tends to be preferred if the discount rate is >2% and traditional even-aged management if it is ≤1%. The results of target diameter harvesting are weakly sensitive to the regeneration pace and success and to variations of the quality of logs from large and old trees. Owing to the almost equal profitability of target diameter harvesting compared with the traditional regimes, the former may be preferred for ecological reasons since it better resembles the natural dynamics.

A four-stage approach to evaluate management alternatives in multiple-use forestry

A multiple-use forest management method is developed to support decisions on insect control in state forests of a case area in Central Poland, aiming at optimisation in a socio-economic context. The model is closely linked to the specific planning situation, but its structure is adaptable to other cases of optimal decision-making on multiple-use forestry. It is a four-stage consecutive model incorporating: (i) financial value of timber production; (ii) stage (i) plus the dual value of non-market outputs; (iii) stage (ii) plus the social value of carbon storage; and (iv) stage (iii) plus the social value of recreational benefits. That is to say, the complete model covers four important multiple-use outputs of the case area. The geographical distribution of high-priority protection forest resources is very sensitive to the stage-wise application of the model, especially with respect to recreation, providing innovative decision support related to multiple-use in a socio-economic context.

Determinants of hunting rental prices: A hedonic analysis

Abstract The right to hunt on a specific area is a complex leisure good including a number of elements, each of which is itself a tangible or intangible consumer good. This article examines factors influencing the price of area-specific hunting rentals as revealed through the accounts of 120 private Danish forest enterprises. Three hedonic models are presented. They include five or six parameters, their adjusted R 2 values range from 0.46 to 0.50 and the standard deviations of the residuals are €12.77–13.86 ha−1. Evidence was found that the price of hunting rentals increases with the proportion of oak and other broadleaves, indicating that hunters appreciate structural diversity in the forest. In addition, the average rent per hectare was observed to decrease when the proportion of the area rented out for hunting increases.