Borgar Aamaas

The integrated global temperature change potential (iGTP) and relationships between emission metrics

The Kyoto Protocol compares greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) using the global warming potential (GWP) with a 100?yr time-horizon. The GWP was developed, however, to illustrate the difficulties in comparing GHGs. In response, there have been many critiques of the GWP and several alternative emission metrics have been proposed. To date, there has been little focus on understanding the linkages between, and interpretations of, different emission metrics. We use an energy balance model to mathematically link the absolute GWP, absolute global temperature change potential (AGTP), absolute ocean heat perturbation (AOHP), and integrated AGTP. For pulse emissions, energy conservation requires that AOHP?=?AGWP???iAGTP/? and hence AGWP and iAGTP are closely linked and converge as AOHP decays to zero. When normalizing the metrics with CO2 (GWP, GTP, and iGTP), we find that the iGTP and GWP are similar numerically for a wide range of GHGs and time-horizons, except for very short-lived species. The similarity between the iGTPX and GWPX depends on how well a pulse emission of CO2 can substitute for a pulse emission of X across a range of time-horizons. The ultimate choice of emission metric(s) and time-horizon(s) depends on policy objectives. To the extent that limiting integrated temperature change over a specific time-horizon is consistent with the broader objectives of climate policy, our analysis suggests that the GWP represents a relatively robust, transparent and policy-relevant emission metric.

Elemental carbon deposition to Svalbard snow from Norwegian settlements and long-range transport

The impact on snow pack albedo from local elemental carbon (EC) sources in Svalbard has been investigated for the winter of 2008. Highly elevated EC concentrations in the snow are observed around the settlements of Longyearbyen and Svea (locally >1000 ng g-1, about 200 times over the background level), while EC concentrations similar to the background level are seen around Ny-Ålesund. Near Longyearbyen and Svea, darkened snow influenced by wind transported coal dust from open coal stockpiles is clearly visible from satellite images and by eye at the ground. As a first estimate, the reduction in snow albedo caused by local EC pollution from the Norwegian settlements has been compared to the estimated reduction caused by long-range transported EC for entire Svalbard. The effect of local EC from Longyearbyen, Svea and all Norwegian settlements are estimated to 2.1%, 7.9% and 10% of the total impact of EC, respectively. The EC particles tend to stay on the surface during melting, and elevated EC concentrations due to the spring melt was observed. This accumulation of EC enhances the positive albedo feedbacks. The EC concentrations were observed to be larger in metamorphosed snow than in fresh snow, and especially around ice lenses.

A warmer policy for a colder climate: Can China both reduce poverty and cap carbon emissions?

Reducing global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is often thought to be at odds with economic growth and poverty reduction. Using an integrated assessment modeling approach, we find that China can cap CO2 emissions at 2015 level while sustaining economic growth and reducing the urban-rural income gap by a third by 2030. As a result, the Chinese economy becomes less dependent on exports and investments, as household consumption emerges as a driver behind economic growth, in line with current policy priorities. The resulting accumulated greenhouse gas emissions reduction 2016-2030 is about 60billionton (60Mg) CO2e. A CO2 tax combined with income re-distribution initially leads to a modest warming due to reduction in sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions. However, the net effect is eventually cooling when the effect of reduced CO2 emissions dominates due to the long-lasting climate response of CO2. The net reduction in global temperature for the remaining part of this century is about 0.03±0.02°C, corresponding in magnitude to the cooling from avoiding one year of global CO2 emissions.