Gunnar Myhre

New estimates of radiative forcing due to well mixed greenhouse gases

We have performed new calculations of the radiative forcing due to changes in the concentrations of the most important well mixed greenhouse gases (WMGG) since pre-industrial time. Three radiative transfer models are used. The radiative forcing due to CO2, including shortwave absorption, is 15% lower than the previous IPCC estimate. The radiative forcing due to all the WMGG is calculated to 2.25 Wm−2, which we estimate to be accurate to within about 5%. The importance of the CFCs is increased by about 20% relative to the total effect of all WMGG compared to previous estimates. We present updates to simple forcing-concentration relationships previously used by IPCC.

Radiative forcing in the 21st century due to ozone changes in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere

ranging from 0.40 to 0.78 W m 2 on a global and annual average. The lower stratosphere contributes an additional 7.5–9.3 DU to the calculated increase in the ozone column, increasing radiative forcing by 0.15–0.17 W m 2 . The modeled radiative forcing depends on the height distribution and geographical pattern of predicted ozone changes and shows a distinct seasonal variation. Despite the large variations between the 11 participating models, the calculated range for normalized radiative forcing is within 25%, indicating the ability to scale radiative forcing to global-mean ozone column change. INDEX TERMS: 0365 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Troposphere—composition and chemistry; 0341 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Middle atmosphere—constituent transport and chemistry (3334) Citation: Gauss, M., et al., Radiative forcing in the 21st century due to ozone changes in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D9), 4292, doi:10.1029/2002JD002624, 2003.

Radiative properties and direct radiative effect of Saharan dust measured by the C‐130 aircraft during SHADE: 1. Solar spectrum

[1] The physical and optical properties of Saharan dust aerosol measured by the Met Office C-130 during the Saharan Dust Experiment (SHADE) are presented. Additional radiation measurements enable the determination of the aerosol optical depth, taerl, and the direct radiative effect (DRE) of the mineral dust. The results suggest that the absorption by Saharan dust is significantly overestimated in the solar spectrum if standard refractive indices are used. Our measurements suggest an imaginary part of the refractive index of 0.0015i is appropriate at a wavelength l of 0.55 mm. Different methods for determining taerl=0.55 are presented, and the accuracy of each retrieval method is assessed. The value taerl=0.55 is estimated as 1.48 ± 0.05 during the period of heaviest dust loading, which is derived from an instantaneous DRE of approximately � 129 ± 5 Wm � 2 or an enhancement of the local planetary albedo over ocean of a factor of 2.7 ± 0.1. A comparison of the DRE derived from the C-130 instrumentation and from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite is presented; the results generally showing agreement to within a factor of 1.2. The results suggest that Saharan dust aerosol exerts the largest local and global DRE of all aerosol species and should be considered explicitly in global radiation budget studies. INDEX TERMS: 0305 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Aerosols and particles (0345, 4801); 0360 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Transmission and scattering of radiation; 1640 Global Change: Remote sensing; 3359 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Radiative processes;

Climate forcing from the transport sectors

Although the transport sector is responsible for a large and growing share of global emissions affecting climate, its overall contribution has not been quantified. We provide a comprehensive analysis of radiative forcing from the road transport, shipping, aviation, and rail subsectors, using both past- and forward-looking perspectives. We find that, since preindustrial times, transport has contributed ≈15% and 31% of the total man-made CO2 and O3 forcing, respectively. A forward-looking perspective shows that the current emissions from transport are responsible for ≈16% of the integrated net forcing over 100 years from all current man-made emissions. The dominating contributor to positive forcing (warming) is CO2, followed by tropospheric O3. By subsector, road transport is the largest contributor to warming. The transport sector also exerts cooling through reduced methane lifetime and atmospheric aerosol effects. Shipping causes net cooling, except on future time scales of several centuries. Much of the forcing from transport comes from emissions not covered by the Kyoto Protocol.

Aviation radiative forcing in 2000: An update on IPCC (1999)

New estimates of the various contributions to the radiative forcing (RF) from aviation are presented, mainly based on results from the TRADEOFF project that update those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1999). The new estimate of the total RF from aviation for 2000 is approximately the same as that of the IPCC’s estimate for 1992. This is mainly a consequence of the strongly reduced RF from contrails, which compensates the increase due to increased traffic from 1992 to 2000. The RF from other aviationinduced cirrus clouds might be as large as the present estimate of the total RF (without cirrus). However, our present knowledge on these aircraft-induced cirrus clouds is too poor to provide a reliable estimate of the associated RF. Zusammenfassung Neue Abschatzungen der einzelnen Beitrage zum Strahlungsantrieb des Luftverkehrs werden vorgestellt, die im Wesentlichen auf Ergebnissen des TRADEOFF-Projektes beruhen und die die IPCC-Abschatzungen (1999) aktualisieren. Der neue Wert fur den gesamten Strahlungsantrieb des Luftverkehrs im Jahr 2000 ist in etwa gleich gros wie die IPCC-Abschatzung fur das Jahr 1992. Das ist im Wesentlichen eine Folge des stark reduzierten Strahlungsantriebes durch Kondensstreifen, wodurch der Anstieg aufgrund der Zunahme des Verkehrs von 1992 bis 2000 kompensiert wird. Der Antrieb durch andere luftverkehrsinduzierte Wolken konnte ebenso gros sein wie die neue Abschatzung fur den gesamten Strahlungsantrieb (ohne Zirren). Jedoch ist unser heutiges Wissen uber diese luftverkehrsinduzierten Wolken nicht gut genug, um belastbare Aussagen uber den damit verbundenen Strahlungsantrieb zu machen.

Measurement and modeling of the Saharan dust radiative impact: Overview of the Saharan Dust Experiment (SHADE)

[1] Aerosols are known to be important in determining Earth’s radiative balance. Dust aerosols are of particular interest since, in addition to their scattering and absorbing properties that affect the solar radiation, they also perturb the terrestrial radiation. Recent studies have shown that a significant proportion of mineral dust in the atmosphere may be of anthropogenic origin, and therefore they may have an important role in climate change by exerting a significant radiative forcing. However, the optical and radiative properties of dust are not yet very well-determined, and even the sign of the resulting forcing is still questionable. The Saharan Dust Experiment (SHADE) was designed to better determine the parameters that are relevant for computing the direct radiative effect. Two aircraft combining in situ and remote sensing instruments were coordinated with satellite overpasses and ground-based observations during the experiment, which was based in the Cape Verde area during the period 19–29 September 2000. These in situ and remotely sensed data provide new valuable information on the microphysical, optical properties, and radiative effects of a large mineral dust outbreak. In addition, a global chemical transport model was used for assessing the radiative impact of these events, which are shown to be important on regional and global scales. INDEX TERMS: 0305 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Aerosols and particles (0345, 4801); 3359 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Radiative processes; 3360 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Remote sensing; KEYWORDS: Saharan dust, physical and optical properties, dust direct radiative forcing

Estimation of the direct radiative forcing due to sulfate and soot aerosols

The direct radiative forcings due to tropospheric sulfate and fossil fuel soot aerosols are calculated. The change in the atmospheric sulfate since preindustrial time is taken from a recent three-dimensional chemistry transport model calculation. A multistream radiative transfer code and observed atmospheric input data is used. The direct radiative forcing due to sulfate is calculated to −0.32 W/m2. Our results for global and annual mean radiative forcing have been compared with results from other model studies. We have assumed a linear relationship between the concentration of fossil fuel soot and sulfate aerosols. The resulting radiative forcing due to soot particles is 0.16 W/m2. Two types of mixtures of sulfate and soot are further assumed. The calculated single scattering albedo is compared to observations.

Application of the CALIOP layer product to evaluate the vertical distribution of aerosols estimated by global models: AeroCom phase i results

[1] The CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) layer product is used for a multimodel evaluation of the vertical distribution of aerosols. Annual and seasonal aerosol extinction profiles are analyzed over 13 sub-continental regions representative of industrial, dust, and biomass burning pollution, from CALIOP 2007–2009 observations and from AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) 2000 simulations. An extinction mean height diagnostic (Za) is defined to quantitatively assess the models’ performance. It is calculated over the 0–6 km and 0–10 km altitude ranges by weighting the altitude of each 100 m altitude layer by its aerosol extinction coefficient. The mean extinction profiles derived from CALIOP layer products provide consistent regional and seasonal specificities and a low inter-annual variability. While the outputs from most models are significantly correlated with the observed Za climatologies, some do better than others, and 2 of the 12 models perform particularly well in all seasons. Over industrial and maritime regions, most models show higher Za than observed by CALIOP, whereas over the African and Chinese dust source regions, Za is underestimated during Northern Hemisphere Spring and Summer. The positive model bias in Za is mainly due to an overestimate of the extinction above 6 km. Potential CALIOP and model limitations, and methodological factors that might contribute to the differences are discussed.

Model simulations of dust sources and transport in the global atmosphere: Effects of soil erodibility and wind speed variability

Global atmospheric dust is simulated using the Dust Entrainment and Deposition (DEAD) model in combination with the global-scale Oslo chemical transport model CTM2 using meteorological data for 1996. Dust sources are calculated using both mean wind speeds with model resolution T63 and subgrid wind speeds. Different data sets are used to describe soil erodibility. We explain how the different assumptions about dust production affect atmospheric dust burden and deposition. Some aspects of the annual dust cycle, such as the east Asian dust emissions, are largely dependent on the data used to determine soil erodibility. Other aspects, such as the timing of the maximum in the African plume at Northern Hemisphere summer, are well modeled with all data sets applied here. We show that the daily variation in optical depth at Cape Verde on the west coast of Africa is well simulated when we assume that erodibility is correlated with surface reflectivity from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spetroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data. Using a subgrid probability density function of wind speed to drive the dust sources facilitates dust emissions in areas with low wind speeds. Dust concentrations in remote areas are sensitive to the parameterization of wet deposition. Our results point out the need for a detailed soil erodibility data set for global dust modeling, and they suggest that surface reflectivity is potentially valuable for producing or evaluating such data sets.

Effects of anthropogenic emissions on tropospheric ozone and its radiative forcing

Tropospheric ozone changes since preindustrial times due to changes in emissions have been calculated by the University of Oslo global three-dimensional photochemical model. The radiative forcing caused by the increase in ozone has been calculated by two independent radiative transfer models; the University of Reading model (Reading), and the University of Oslo/Norwegian Institute for Air Research model (OsloRad). Significant increases in upper tropospheric ozone concentrations are found at northern midlatitudes (15–40 ppbv, depending on season) at about 10 km altitude. In the tropical regions the largest increase (about 20 ppbv for all seasons) is found at about 15 km altitude. The increase is found to be caused mainly by enhanced in situ production due to transport of precursors from the boundary layer, with a smaller contribution from increased transport of ozone produced in the boundary layer. The lifetime of ozone in the troposphere decreased by about 35% as a result of enhanced concentrations of HO2. The calculated increase in surface ozone in Europe is found to be in good agreement with observations. The calculations of radiative forcing include the effect of clouds and allow for thermal adjustment in the stratosphere. The global and annual averaged radiative forcing at the tropopause from both models (0.28 W m−2 and 0.31 W m−2, for the Reading and OsloRad models, respectively) are in the lower part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [1995] estimated range. The calculated radiative forcing is similar in magnitude to the negative radiative forcing by sulfate aerosols, but displaced southward in source regions at northern midlatitudes. The increase in tropospheric ozone is calculated to have cooled the lower stratosphere by up to 0.9 K, with possibly half of this cooling occurring in the past 2 to 3 decades.