Brady R. Couvillion

Forecasting the Effects of Coastal Protection and Restoration Projects on Wetland Morphology in Coastal Louisiana under Multiple Environmental Uncertainty Scenarios

ABSTRACT Couvillion, B.R.; Steyer, G.D.; Wang, H.; Beck, H.J., and Rybczyk, J.M., 2013. Forecasting the effects of coastal protection and restoration projects on wetland morphology in coastal Louisiana under multiple environmental uncertainty scenarios. Few landscape scale models have assessed the effects of coastal protection and restoration projects on wetland morphology while taking into account important uncertainties in environmental factors such as sea-level rise (SLR) and subsidence. In support of Louisianas 2012 Coastal Master Plan, we developed a spatially explicit wetland morphology model and coupled it with other predictive models. The model is capable of predicting effects of protection and restoration projects on wetland area, landscape configuration, surface elevation, and soil organic carbon (SOC) storage under multiple environmental uncertainty scenarios. These uncertainty scenarios included variability in parameters such as eustatic SLR (ESLR), subsidence rate, and Mississippi River discharge. Models were run for a 2010–2060 simulation period. Model results suggest that under a “future-without-action” condition (FWOA), coastal Louisiana is at risk of losing between 2118 and 4677 km2 of land over the next 50 years, but with protection and restoration projects proposed in the Master Plan, between 40% and 75% of that loss could be mitigated. Moreover, model results indicate that under a FWOA condition, SOC storage (to a depth of 1 m) could decrease by between 108 and 250 million metric tons, a loss of 12% to 30% of the total coastwide SOC, but with the Master Plan implemented, between 35% and 74% of the SOC loss could be offset. Long-term maintenance of project effects was best attained in areas of low SLR and subsidence, with a sediment source to support marsh accretion. Our findings suggest that despite the efficacy of restoration projects in mitigating losses in certain areas, net loss of wetlands in coastal Louisiana is likely to continue. Model results suggest certain areas may eventually be lost regardless of proposed restoration investment, and, as such, other techniques and strategies of adaptation may have to be utilized in these areas.

Potential Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Wetlands in Southeastern Louisiana

ABSTRACT Glick, P.; Clough, J.; Polaczyk, A.; Couvillion, B., and Nunley, B., 2013. Potential effects of sea-level rise on coastal wetlands in southeastern Louisiana. In: Brock, J.C; Barras, J.A., and Williams, S.J. (eds.), Understanding and Predicting Change in the Coastal Ecosystems of the Northern Gulf of Mexico, Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 63, pp. 211-233, Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749–0208. Coastal Louisiana wetlands contain about 37% of the estuarine herbaceous marshes in the conterminous United States. The long-term stability of coastal wetlands is often a function of a wetlands ability to maintain elevation equilibrium with mean sea level through processes such as primary production and sediment accretion. However, Louisiana has sustained more coastal wetland loss than all other states in the continental United States combined due to a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors, including sea-level rise. This study investigates the potential impact of current and accelerating sea-level rise rates on key coastal wetland habitats in southeastern Louisiana using the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM). Model calibration was conducted using a 1956–2007 observation period and hindcasting results predicted 35% versus observed 39% total marsh loss. Multiple sea-level-rise scenarios were then simulated for the period of 2007–2100. Results indicate a range of potential wetland losses by 2100, from an additional 2,188.97 km2 (218,897 ha, 9% of the 2007 wetland area) under the lowest sea-level-rise scenario (0.34 m), to a potential loss of 5,875.27 km2 (587,527 ha, 24% of the 2007 wetland area) in the highest sea-level-rise scenario (1.9 m). Model results suggest that one area of particular concern is the potential vulnerability of the regions baldcypress-water tupelo (Taxodium distichum-Nyssa aquatica) swamp habitat, much of which is projected to become permanently flooded (affecting regeneration) under all modeled scenarios for sea-level rise. These findings will aid in the development of ecosystem management plans that support the processes and conditions that result in sustainable coastal ecosystems.

Marsh Collapse Thresholds for Coastal Louisiana Estimated Using Elevation and Vegetation Index Data

ABSTRACT Couvillion, B.R. and Beck, H., 2013. Marsh collapse thresholds for coastal Louisiana estimated using elevation and vegetation index data. In: Brock, J.C.; Barras, J.A., and Williams, S.J. (eds.), Understanding and Predicting Change in the Coastal Ecosystems of the Northern Gulf of Mexico, Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 63, pp. 58–67, Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. Forecasting marsh collapse in coastal Louisiana as a result of changes in sea-level rise, subsidence, and accretion deficits necessitates an understanding of thresholds beyond which inundation stress impedes marsh survival. The variability in thresholds at which different marsh types cease to occur (i.e., marsh collapse) is not well understood. We utilized remotely sensed imagery, field data, and elevation data to help gain insight into the relationships between vegetation health and inundation. A Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) dataset was calculated using remotely sensed data at peak biomass (August) and used as a proxy for vegetation health and productivity. Statistics were calculated for NDVI values by marsh type for intermediate, brackish, and saline marsh in coastal Louisiana. Marsh-type specific NDVI values of 1.5 and 2 standard deviations below the mean were used as upper and lower limits to identify conditions indicative of collapse. As marshes seldom occur beyond these values, they are believed to represent a range within which marsh collapse is likely to occur. Inundation depth was selected as the primary candidate for evaluation of marsh collapse thresholds. Elevation relative to mean water level (MWL) was calculated by subtracting MWL from an elevation dataset compiled from multiple data types including light detection and ranging (lidar) and bathymetry. A polynomial cubic regression was used to examine a random subset of pixels to determine the relationship between elevation (relative to MWL) and NDVI. The marsh collapse uncertainty range values were found by locating the intercept of the regression line with the 1.5 and 2 standard deviations below the mean NDVI value for each marsh type. Results indicate marsh collapse uncertainty ranges of 30.7–35.8 cm below MWL for intermediate marsh, 20–25.6 cm below MWL for brackish marsh, and 16.9–23.5 cm below MWL for saline marsh. These values are thought to represent the ranges of inundation depths within which marsh collapse is probable.

Monitoring Vegetation Response to Episodic Disturbance Events by using Multitemporal Vegetation Indices

ABSTRACT Steyer, G.D.; Couvillion, B.R., and Barras, J.A., 2013. Monitoring vegetation response to episodic disturbance events by using multitemporal vegetation indices In: Brock, J.C.; Barras, J.A., and Williams, S.J. (eds.), Understanding and Predicting Change in the Coastal Ecosystems of the Northern Gulf of Mexico, Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 63, pp. 118–130, Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery and land/water assessments from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery were used to quantify the extent and severity of damage and subsequent recovery after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita of 2005 within the vegetation communities of Louisianas coastal wetlands. Field data on species composition and total live cover were collected from 232 unique plots during multiple time periods to corroborate changes in NDVI values over time. Aprehurricane 5-year baseline time series clearly identified NDVI values by habitat type, suggesting the sensitivity of NDVI to assess and monitor phenological changes in coastal wetland habitats. Monthly data from March 2005 to November 2006 were compared to the baseline average to create a departure from average statistic. Departures suggest that over 33% (4,714 km2) of the prestorm, coastal wetlands experienced a substantial decline in the density and vigor of vegetation by October 2005 (poststorm), mostly in the east and west regions, where landfalls of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita occurred. The percentage of area of persistent vegetation damage due to long-lasting formation of new open water was 91.8% in the east and 81.0% and 29.0% in the central and west regions, respectively. Although below average NDVI values were observed in most marsh communities through November 2006, recovery of vegetation was evident. Results indicated that impacts and recovery from large episodic disturbance events that influence multiple habitat types can be accurately determined using NDVI, especially when integrated with assessments of physical landscape changes and field verifications.

Determining the spatial variability of wetland soil bulk density, organic matter, and the conversion factor between organic matter and organic carbon across coastal Louisiana, U.S.A.

ABSTRACT Wang, H.; Piazza, S.C.; Sharp, L.A.; Stagg, C.L.; Couvillion, B.R.; Steyer, G.D., and McGinnis, T.E., 2017. Determining the spatial variability of wetland soil bulk density, organic matter, and the conversion factor between organic matter and organic carbon across coastal Louisiana, U.S.A. Soil bulk density (BD), soil organic matter (SOM) content, and a conversion factor between SOM and soil organic carbon (SOC) are often used in estimating SOC sequestration and storage. Spatial variability in BD, SOM, and the SOM–SOC conversion factor affects the ability to accurately estimate SOC sequestration, storage, and the benefits (e.g., land building area and vertical accretion) associated with wetland restoration efforts, such as marsh creation and sediment diversions. There are, however, only a few studies that have examined large-scale spatial variability in BD, SOM, and SOM–SOC conversion factors in coastal wetlands. In this study, soil cores, distributed across the entire coastal Louisiana (approximately 14,667 km2) were used to examine the regional-scale spatial variability in BD, SOM, and the SOM–SOC conversion factor. Soil cores for BD and SOM analyses were collected during 2006–09 from 331 spatially well-distributed sites in the Coastwide Reference Monitoring System network. Soil cores for the SOM–SOC conversion factor analysis were collected from 15 sites across coastal Louisiana during 2006–07. Results of a split-plot analysis of variance with incomplete block design indicated that BD and SOM varied significantly at a landscape level, defined by both hydrologic basins and vegetation types. Vertically, BD and SOM varied significantly among different vegetation types. The SOM–SOC conversion factor also varied significantly at the landscape level. This study provides critical information for the assessment of the role of coastal wetlands in large regional carbon budgets and the estimation of carbon credits from coastal restoration.

Channel Armor Gap Crevasse (MR-06): 2016 Land-Water Classification

The Louisiana State Legislature created Coastal Wetlands Planning, Protection, and Restoration Act (CWPPRA) in order to conserve, restore, create and enhance Louisianas coastal wetlands. The wetland restoration plans developed persuant to these acts specifically require an evaluation of the effectiveness of each coastal wetlands restoration project in achieving long-term solutions to arresting coastal wetlands loss. This data set includes mosaicked aerial photographs for the Channel Armor Gap Crevasse (MR-06) project for 2016. This data set is used as a basemap land/water classification. It also serves as a visual tool for project managers to help them identify any obvious problems or land loss within their project boundary. To better evaluate the effectiveness of restoration efforts, a land-water classification is performed on specific CWPPRA sites to help assess landscape changes.