Nicholas M. Enwright

Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species: salt marshes vs. mangrove forests in the southeastern United States

We live in an era of unprecedented ecological change in which ecologists and natural resource managers are increasingly challenged to anticipate and prepare for the ecological effects of future global change. In this study, we investigated the potential effect of winter climate change upon salt marsh and mangrove forest foundation species in the southeastern United States. Our research addresses the following three questions: (1) What is the relationship between winter climate and the presence and abundance of mangrove forests relative to salt marshes; (2) How vulnerable are salt marshes to winter climate change-induced mangrove forest range expansion; and (3) What is the potential future distribution and relative abundance of mangrove forests under alternative winter climate change scenarios? We developed simple winter climate-based models to predict mangrove forest distribution and relative abundance using observed winter temperature data (1970-2000) and mangrove forest and salt marsh habitat data. Our results identify winter climate thresholds for salt marsh-mangrove forest interactions and highlight coastal areas in the southeastern United States (e.g., Texas, Louisiana, and parts of Florida) where relatively small changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme winter events could cause relatively dramatic landscape-scale ecosystem structural and functional change in the form of poleward mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The ecological implications of these marsh-to-mangrove forest conversions are poorly understood, but would likely include changes for associated fish and wildlife populations and for the supply of some ecosystem goods and services.

Beyond just sea‐level rise: considering macroclimatic drivers within coastal wetland vulnerability assessments to climate change

Due to their position at the land-sea interface, coastal wetlands are vulnerable to many aspects of climate change. However, climate change vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands generally focus solely on sea-level rise without considering the effects of other facets of climate change. Across the globe and in all ecosystems, macroclimatic drivers (e.g., temperature and rainfall regimes) greatly influence ecosystem structure and function. Macroclimatic drivers have been the focus of climate change-related threat evaluations for terrestrial ecosystems, but largely ignored for coastal wetlands. In some coastal wetlands, changing macroclimatic conditions are expected to result in foundation plant species replacement, which would affect the supply of certain ecosystem goods and services and could affect ecosystem resilience. As examples, we highlight several ecological transition zones where small changes in macroclimatic conditions would result in comparatively large changes in coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. Our intent in this communication is not to minimize the importance of sea-level rise. Rather, our overarching aim is to illustrate the need to also consider macroclimatic drivers within vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands.

Freshwater availability and coastal wetland foundation species: ecological transitions along a rainfall gradient

Climate gradient-focused ecological research can provide a foundation for better understanding critical ecological transition points and nonlinear climate–ecological relationships, which is information that can be used to better understand, predict, and manage ecological responses to climate change. In this study, we examined the influence of freshwater availability upon the coverage of foundation plant species in coastal wetlands along a northwestern Gulf of Mexico rainfall gradient. Our research addresses the following three questions: (1) What are the regional-scale relationships between measures of freshwater availability (e.g., rainfall, aridity, freshwater inflow, salinity) and the relative abundance of foundation plant species in tidal wetlands; (2) how vulnerable are foundation plant species in tidal wetlands to future changes in freshwater availability; and (3) what is the potential future relative abundance of tidal wetland foundation plant species under alternative climate change scenarios? We ...

Radar and optical mapping of surge persistence and marsh dieback along the New Jersey Mid-Atlantic coast after Hurricane Sandy

ABSTRACT This study combined a radar-based time series of Hurricane Sandy surge and estimated persistence with optical sensor-based marsh condition change to assess potential causal linkages of surge persistence and marsh condition change along the New Jersey Atlantic Ocean coast. Results based on processed TerraSAR-X and COSMO-SkyMed synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images indicated that surge flooding persisted for 12 h past landfall in marshes from Great Bay to Great Egg Harbor Bay and up to 59 h after landfall in many back-barrier lagoon marshes. Marsh condition change (i.e. loss of green marsh vegetation) was assessed from optical satellite images (Satellite Pour l’Observation de la Terre and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) collected before and after Hurricane Sandy. High change in condition often showed spatial correspondence, with high surge persistence in marsh surrounding the lagoon portion of Great Bay, while in contrast, low change and high persistence spatial correspondence dominated the interior marshes of the Great Bay and Great Egg Harbor Bay estuaries. Salinity measurements suggest that these areas were influenced by freshwater discharges after landfall possibly mitigating damage. Back-barrier marshes outside these regions exhibited mixed correspondences. In some cases, topographic features supporting longer surge persistence suggested that non-correspondence between radar and optical data-based results may be due to differential resilience; however, in many cases, reference information was lacking to determine a reason for non-correspondence.

Analysis of the impact of spatial resolution on land/water classifications using high-resolution aerial imagery

Long-term monitoring efforts often use remote sensing to track trends in habitat or landscape conditions over time. To most appropriately compare observations over time, long-term monitoring efforts strive for consistency in methods. Thus, advances and changes in technology over time can present a challenge. For instance, modern camera technology has led to an increasing availability of very high-resolution imagery (i.e. submetre and metre) and a shift from analogue to digital photography. While numerous studies have shown that image resolution can impact the accuracy of classifications, most of these studies have focused on the impacts of comparing spatial resolution changes greater than 2 m. Thus, a knowledge gap exists on the impacts of minor changes in spatial resolution (i.e. submetre to about 1.5 m) in very high-resolution aerial imagery (i.e. 2 m resolution or less). This study compared the impact of spatial resolution on land/water classifications of an area dominated by coastal marsh vegetation in Louisiana, USA, using 1:12,000 scale colour-infrared analogue aerial photography (AAP) scanned at four different dot-per-inch resolutions simulating ground sample distances (GSDs) of 0.33, 0.54, 1, and 2 m. Analysis of the impact of spatial resolution on land/water classifications was conducted by exploring various spatial aspects of the classifications including density of waterbodies and frequency distributions in waterbody sizes. This study found that a small-magnitude change (1–1.5 m) in spatial resolution had little to no impact on the amount of water classified (i.e. percentage mapped was less than 1.5%), but had a significant impact on the mapping of very small waterbodies (i.e. waterbodies ≤ 250 m2). These findings should interest those using temporal image classifications derived from very high-resolution aerial photography as a component of long-term monitoring programs.

Estimating inundation patterns in detention wetlands: methodology and application to North‐Central Texas

The objective of this study was to develop and apply a method for estimating hydroperiods in proposed detention wetlands. We applied the method to a riparian mitigation project in north‐central Texas, USA. The approach used in this study incorporates field measurements of hydrologic variables, historical observations, and digital elevation data – all processed in a geographic information system (GIS) linked to a dynamic water budget model.

Hydrology of Coastal Prairie Freshwater Wetlands.

T Gulf Coast region of Texas and western Louisiana contains a unique wetland type that is part of the globally imperiled Coastal Prairie Ecosystem (USGS 2000). This southernmost extension of the tall-grass prairie is a mosaic of depressional wetlands, pimple mounds, and flats (Moulton and Jacob 2000). Coastal Prairie Freshwater Wetlands (CPFWs) are characterized by microtopography and complex patterns of inundation that promote diverse plant communities. Some of these freshwater wetlands originated from ancient channel scars that have been reworked by aeolian erosion, while other “gilgai” wetlands are formed by the vertical action of clay soils (Sipocz 2002). The dominant soil types are Vertisols and Alfisols that developed over Pleistocene deposits flanking the Gulf coast. These wetlands have diverse and locally variable hydrology, ranging from temporarily flooded to intermittently exposed. CPFWs tend to have small watersheds, seasonal inundation, intermittent outflows, and hydrology driven largely by precipitation and evapotranspiration.

The Impact of Lidar Elevation Uncertainty on Mapping Intertidal Habitats on Barrier Islands

While airborne lidar data have revolutionized the spatial resolution that elevations can be realized, data limitations are often magnified in coastal settings. Researchers have found that airborne lidar can have a vertical error as high as 60 cm in densely vegetated intertidal areas. The uncertainty of digital elevation models is often left unaddressed; however, in low-relief environments, such as barrier islands, centimeter differences in elevation can affect exposure to physically demanding abiotic conditions, which greatly influence ecosystem structure and function. In this study, we used airborne lidar elevation data, in situ elevation observations, lidar metadata, and tide gauge information to delineate low-lying lands and the intertidal wetlands on Dauphin Island, a barrier island along the coast of Alabama, USA. We compared three different elevation error treatments, which included leaving error untreated and treatments that used Monte Carlo simulations to incorporate elevation vertical uncertainty using general information from lidar metadata and site-specific Real-Time Kinematic Global Position System data, respectively. To aid researchers in instances where limited information is available for error propagation, we conducted a sensitivity test to assess the effect of minor changes to error and bias. Treatment of error with site-specific observations produced the fewest omission errors, although the treatment using the lidar metadata had the most well-balanced results. The percent coverage of intertidal wetlands was increased by up to 80% when treating the vertical error of the digital elevation models. Based on the results from the sensitivity analysis, it could be reasonable to use error and positive bias values from literature for similar environments, conditions, and lidar acquisition characteristics in the event that collection of site-specific data is not feasible and information in the lidar metadata is insufficient. The methodology presented in this study should increase efficiency and enhance results for habitat mapping and analyses in dynamic, low-relief coastal environments.

Assessing coastal wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast: Gaps and opportunities for developing a coordinated regional sampling network

Coastal wetland responses to sea-level rise are greatly influenced by biogeomorphic processes that affect wetland surface elevation. Small changes in elevation relative to sea level can lead to comparatively large changes in ecosystem structure, function, and stability. The surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) approach is being used globally to quantify the relative contributions of processes affecting wetland elevation change. Historically, SET-MH measurements have been obtained at local scales to address site-specific research questions. However, in the face of accelerated sea-level rise, there is an increasing need for elevation change network data that can be incorporated into regional ecological models and vulnerability assessments. In particular, there is a need for long-term, high-temporal resolution data that are strategically distributed across ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients. Here, we quantify the distribution of SET-MH stations along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast (USA) across political boundaries (states), wetland habitats, and ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients (i.e., gradients in temperature, precipitation, elevation, and relative sea-level rise). Our analyses identify areas with high SET-MH station densities as well as areas with notable gaps. Salt marshes, intermediate elevations, and colder areas with high rainfall have a high number of stations, while salt flat ecosystems, certain elevation zones, the mangrove-marsh ecotone, and hypersaline coastal areas with low rainfall have fewer stations. Due to rapid rates of wetland loss and relative sea-level rise, the state of Louisiana has the most extensive SET-MH station network in the region, and we provide several recent examples where data from Louisiana’s network have been used to assess and compare wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise. Our findings represent the first attempt to examine spatial gaps in SET-MH coverage across abiotic gradients. Our analyses can be used to transform a broadly disseminated and unplanned collection of SET-MH stations into a coordinated and strategic regional network. This regional network would provide data for predicting and preparing for the responses of coastal wetlands to accelerated sea-level rise and other aspects of global change.

Climate and plant controls on soil organic matter in coastal wetlands

Coastal wetlands are among the most productive and carbon-rich ecosystems on Earth. Long-term carbon storage in coastal wetlands occurs primarily belowground as soil organic matter (SOM). In addition to serving as a carbon sink, SOM influences wetland ecosystem structure, function, and stability. To anticipate and mitigate the effects of climate change, there is a need to advance understanding of environmental controls on wetland SOM. Here, we investigated the influence of four soil formation factors: climate, biota, parent materials, and topography. Along the northern Gulf of Mexico, we collected wetland plant and soil data across elevation and zonation gradients within 10 estuaries that span broad temperature and precipitation gradients. Our results highlight the importance of climate-plant controls and indicate that the influence of elevation is scale and location dependent. Coastal wetland plants are sensitive to climate change; small changes in temperature or precipitation can transform coastal wetland plant communities. Across the region, SOM was greatest in mangrove forests and in salt marshes dominated by graminoid plants. SOM was lower in salt flats that lacked vascular plants and in salt marshes dominated by succulent plants. We quantified strong relationships between precipitation, salinity, plant productivity, and SOM. Low precipitation leads to high salinity, which limits plant productivity and appears to constrain SOM accumulation. Our analyses use data from the Gulf of Mexico, but our results can be related to coastal wetlands across the globe and provide a foundation for predicting the ecological effects of future reductions in precipitation and freshwater availability. Coastal wetlands provide many ecosystem services that are SOM dependent and highly vulnerable to climate change. Collectively, our results indicate that future changes in SOM and plant productivity, regulated by cascading effects of precipitation on freshwater availability and salinity, could impact wetland stability and affect the supply of some wetland ecosystem services.